World Cup 2026 Predictions and Semifinals Betting Tips

The 2026 World Cup is complete. Spain are world champions, beating Argentina 1-0 after extra time at MetLife Stadium on 19 July, with Ferran Torres scoring the only goal in the 106th minute. The United States co-hosted, and the USMNT topped Group D before their run ended in the Round of 16 against Belgium. This page recaps how the tournament played out for US bettors, round by round, and scores the pre-match picks we published during the tournament against what actually happened.

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Outright markets for the next tournament in 2030 will open in due course. You must be 21 or older to bet on sports in most US states.

Best US Sports Betting Sites

The sportsbooks below are established, state-licensed US operators with strong soccer coverage, useful again for the next tournament and for the leagues running now. Always verify that a sportsbook is licensed in your state before signing up, and check the sportsbook directly for how to bet on the World Cup, the latest features and payment methods.

FanDuel

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FanDuel is a premier choice for US bettors, pairing an industry-best mobile app with reliable payouts and a deep Same Game Parlay builder that suited match-by-match World Cup wagering.

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BetMGM is an excellent platform for bettors targeting market variety, standing out with exceptional depth of 100 plus betting options per major match.

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DraftKings caters to fans who love live action, delivering sub-2 second odds updates and sharp soccer pricing.

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  • These sportsbooks are fully licensed US operators regulated by state gaming commissions. Availability varies by state, so always confirm that online sports betting is legal where you are located and that you are physically present in a legal state before signing up.

How the 2026 World Cup Finished

Spain won their second World Cup, beating Argentina 1-0 after extra time in the final, conceding only one goal across the whole tournament. The closing rounds delivered the first semifinal field in World Cup history made up entirely of FIFA’s top four ranked teams: France, Argentina, Spain and England.

StageResult
Semifinal 1 (14 Jul, Arlington)Spain 2-0 France (Oyarzabal, Pedro Porro)
Semifinal 2 (15 Jul, Atlanta)Argentina 2-1 England (Lautaro Martinez late winner)
Third place (18 Jul, Miami)England 6-4 France (Saka hat-trick; Mbappe scored twice)
Final (19 Jul, MetLife)Spain 1-0 Argentina a.e.t. (Ferran Torres 106′)

Kylian Mbappe won the Golden Boot with 10 goals, two clear of Lionel Messi, after a double in the third-place playoff, and in doing so became the World Cup’s all-time leading scorer and the first player to win the Golden Boot twice.

How Our Pre-Match Picks Performed

A predictions page is only worth as much as its honesty after the fact, so here is a straight scorecard of the tips we published during the tournament, wins and losses alike.

Published TipOutcome
USMNT to top Group DLanded. USA won the group.
Norway as pre-tournament dark horseLanded. Norway beat Brazil in the Round of 16.
France to reach the finalLost. France lost 2-0 to Spain in the semifinal.
Argentina to win the tournament (+400)Lost. Argentina lost the final 1-0 to Spain.
Mbappe to win the Golden BootLanded. Mbappe finished top scorer on 10.
England vs Argentina, both teams to scoreLanded. Argentina won 2-1, both sides scored.

The tournament picks were a mixed book. The group-stage and dark-horse reads landed, and two of the four semifinal-stage tips came in, but the two headline outright plays, France to reach the final and Argentina to win it, both lost to a Spain side that proved the story of the tournament. The lesson US bettors can carry to 2030 is the one the knockouts kept repeating: in single-elimination ties, outright and to-reach-the-final markets carry real risk even on the strongest names.

Group Stage Recap

The group stage set the knockout bracket. These are the sections that mattered most to US bettors, starting with the USMNT’s Group D. Match times are listed in ET, and all betting picks use American odds. For a full breakdown of each group, see our World Cup group predictions.

Group D: USA Won the Group

The USMNT delivered on home soil, winning Group D after a commanding 4-1 opening win over Paraguay and a result against Australia. A 3-2 loss to Turkiye on the final matchday did not matter, as top spot was already secured. Turkiye were eliminated, Australia advanced as runners-up, and Paraguay went through as a best third-placed team. The qualification markets that offered better value than outright bets paid off.

MatchDate & Time (ET)VenueResultPre-Match Pick
USA vs ParaguayJune 12, 9:00 PM ETSoFi Stadium, Los AngelesUSA won 4-1USA Win (landed)
USA vs AustraliaJune 19, 3:00 PM ETLumen Field, SeattleUSA advanced as group winnersUnder 2.5 Goals
Türkiye vs USAJune 25, 10:00 PM ETSoFi Stadium, Los AngelesTürkiye won 3-2 (USA already through)BTTS Yes (landed)

These group stage results confirmed a final Group D order of USA 1st, Australia 2nd, Paraguay 3rd (advanced), and Türkiye eliminated, setting up a knockout path that ran through Bosnia and Herzegovina in the Round of 32.

Group I: France Won, Norway Through

France topped Group I but were beaten 4-1 by Norway on the final matchday, with Erling Haaland to the fore. France, Norway and Senegal all advanced, and the pre-tournament dark-horse call on Norway paid off in full when they knocked out Brazil in the Round of 16.

MatchDate & Time (ET)VenueResultPre-Match Pick
France vs SenegalJune 16, 3:00 PM ETMetLife Stadium, New JerseyFrance won 3-1France Win (landed)
Norway vs FranceJune 26, 3:00 PM ETGillette Stadium, BostonNorway won 4-1BTTS Yes (landed)

Group C: Brazil and Morocco Advanced

Brazil won Group C on goal difference after a 1-1 draw with Morocco, and both carried their form into the knockouts, with Morocco eliminating the Netherlands on penalties and reaching the quarterfinals, and Brazil edging Japan before their run ended against Norway.

MatchDate & Time (ET)VenueResultPre-Match Pick
Brazil vs MoroccoJune 13, 6:00 PM ETMetLife Stadium, New Jersey1-1 draw (Brazil won group on GD)Brazil Win

Group L: England Won the Group

England topped Group L, with Croatia advancing as runners-up and Ghana going through as a best third-placed team. England went on to reach the semifinals, beating Mexico and Norway in the knockouts before losing to Argentina.

MatchDate & Time (ET)VenueResultPre-Match Pick
England vs CroatiaJune 17, 4:00 PM ETAT&T Stadium, Arlington TXEngland won the group; both advancedEngland Win

Group J: Argentina Won the Group

Argentina entered as defending champions and won Group J, with Austria and Algeria also advancing after a dramatic 3-3 draw on the final matchday. They reached the final, coming through extra time in both the Round of 16 and the quarterfinal along the way.

MatchDate & Time (ET)VenueResultPre-Match Pick
Argentina vs AustriaJune 22, 1:00 PM ETAT&T Stadium, Arlington TXArgentina won 2-0Argentina Win and Under 3.5 (landed)

Knockout Recap by Round

The expanded format sent 32 teams into the knockouts, adding a Round of 32 before the traditional Round of 16 and creating more elimination matches, and more betting opportunities, than any previous World Cup. The volatility showed at once, with Germany and the Netherlands both going out on penalties in the Round of 32.

How the New Knockout Format Worked

The expanded structure sent 32 teams into the knockouts instead of 16, creating a Round of 32 before the traditional Round of 16 and increasing the number of elimination matches. The Round of 32 ran from June 28 to July 3, 2026, featuring the 12 group winners, 12 runners-up and the eight best third-placed teams. The Round of 16 followed from July 4 to July 7, the quarterfinals from July 9 to July 11, and the semifinals on July 14 and July 15.

Round of 32 (28 June to 3 July)

Match Fixture Result

Match 73

South Africa vs Canada

Canada won 1-0

Match 74

Germany vs Paraguay

Paraguay won 4-3 on penalties

Match 75

Netherlands vs Morocco

Morocco won 3-2 on penalties

Match 76

Brazil vs Japan

Brazil won 2-1

Match 77

France vs Sweden

France won 3-0

Match 78

Ivory Coast vs Norway

Norway won 2-1

Match 79

Mexico vs Ecuador

Mexico won 2-0

Match 80

England vs DR Congo

England won 2-1

Match 81

USA vs Bosnia and Herzegovina

USA won 2-0 (advanced to R16)

Match 82

Belgium vs Senegal

Belgium won 3-2 (a.e.t.)

Match 83

Portugal vs Croatia

Portugal won 2-1

Match 84

Spain vs Austria

Spain won 3-0

Match 85

Switzerland vs Algeria

Switzerland won 2-1

Match 86

Argentina vs Cape Verde

Argentina won 3-2 (a.e.t.)

Match 87

Colombia vs Ghana

Colombia won 1-0

Match 88

Australia vs Egypt

Egypt won 4-2 on penalties

The Round of 32 delivered on its billing immediately, with Germany and the Netherlands both eliminated on penalties by Paraguay and Morocco. Canada opened the round with a 1-0 win over South Africa, and the USA came through against Bosnia and Herzegovina to reach the Round of 16, one of three co-hosts to make the last 32.

Round of 16 (4 to 7 July)

Match Fixture Result

Match 89

Paraguay vs France

France won 1-0

Match 90

Canada vs Morocco

Morocco won 3-0

Match 91

Brazil vs Norway

Norway won 2-1

Match 92

Mexico vs England

England won 3-2

Match 93

Portugal vs Spain

Spain won 1-0

Match 94

USA vs Belgium

Belgium won 4-1 (USA eliminated)

Match 95

Argentina vs Egypt

Argentina won 3-2 (a.e.t.)

Match 96

Colombia vs Switzerland

Switzerland won 4-3 on penalties

The Round of 16 produced the tournament’s biggest shock, Brazil knocked out by Norway, and ended both co-host runs still standing, with the USA beaten 4-1 by Belgium and Mexico edged 3-2 by England. Spain squeezed past Portugal on a late Mikel Merino strike, and Argentina came from two down against Egypt to win in extra time.

Quarterfinals (9 to 11 July)

Match Fixture Result

QF1

France vs Morocco

France won 2-0

QF2

Spain vs Belgium

Spain won 2-1

QF3

England vs Norway

England won 2-1 (a.e.t.)

QF4

Argentina vs Switzerland

Argentina won 3-1 (a.e.t.)

For the first time in World Cup history, all four of FIFA’s top-ranked sides reached the semifinals. France eased past Morocco, Spain’s Merino struck late again against Belgium, England needed extra time and a Bellingham brace to end Norway’s run and Haaland’s tournament, and a late Julian Alvarez goal broke down a ten-man Switzerland to send Argentina through. Match numbering such as Match 81 and Match 94 follows the official tournament bracket structure used for the 2026 World Cup knockout stage.

How the Semifinals Played Out

The semifinals pitted the tournament’s four strongest sides against each other on US soil. Spain beat France in Arlington on 14 July, and Argentina beat England in Atlanta on 15 July, setting up a Spain vs Argentina final at MetLife Stadium on 19 July, with England taking third place in Miami.

Spain 2-0 France, AT&T Stadium, Arlington

France vs Spain was, in effect, the market’s two best teams meeting a round early. France arrived as the form side of the tournament, unbeaten and with the most productive attack, led by Golden Boot winner Kylian Mbappe alongside Ousmane Dembele and Michael Olise. Spain countered with the tournament’s meanest defense and a possession game built around Lamine Yamal and Pedri, and having beaten France in each of their last two meetings, at Euro 2024 and in 2025, they made it three: goals from Oyarzabal and Pedro Porro sent Spain through 2-0. The contrast of styles turned on Spain’s control of tempo starving France of the ball, and the pre-match read that favored France to advance did not survive contact with Spain’s defense.

Argentina 2-1 England, Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta

England vs Argentina was a heavyweight meeting of the tournament’s second favorites and its defending champions. England had reached the semifinals on squad depth and the goals of Harry Kane and Jude Bellingham, who scored in every knockout round; Argentina, roared on by Lionel Messi in what was expected to be his final World Cup, relied on late individual brilliance, needing extra time in both the Round of 16 and the quarterfinal. Both sides scored, as the pre-match both-teams-to-score read anticipated, but it was a late Lautaro Martinez winner that settled it 2-1 for Argentina and sent the holders to the final.

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How Our Closing-Stage Tips Landed

The picks below were published before the semifinals, when every match was win-or-go-home. Here is how each one landed once the closing stages were played, based on team strength, the semifinal draw, and the market at the time.

Tip 1 France to reach the final — Lost

France arrived as the form side of the tournament, unbeaten and without conceding across their three knockout matches, and with Golden Boot winner Kylian Mbappe in form they were favored to come through against Spain. In the event, Spain won the semifinal 2-0 and France did not reach the final.

Result France to reach the final — lost (Spain won the semifinal 2-0).

Tip 2 Mbappe to win the Golden Boot — Landed

Kylian Mbappe and Lionel Messi went into the closing stages level at the top of the scoring chart, with England’s Harry Kane and Jude Bellingham close behind. Mbappe pulled clear with a double in the third-place playoff to finish on 10 goals, two ahead of Messi.

Result Kylian Mbappe to win the Golden Boot — landed (10 goals).

Tip 3 England vs Argentina Both Teams to Score — Landed

The second semifinal paired England’s attacking depth against an Argentina side that had scored in every knockout round through late individual brilliance, a profile that pointed to goals at both ends. Argentina won 2-1 with both sides finding the net.

Result England vs Argentina Both Teams to Score — landed (Argentina won 2-1).

Tip 4 Argentina to win the tournament (+400) — Lost

Defending champions Argentina relied on knockout composure, coming through extra time in both the Round of 16 and the quarterfinal, and reached the final roared on by Lionel Messi. They fell at the last, beaten 1-0 by Spain after extra time.

Result Argentina to win the World Cup (+400) — lost (Spain won the final 1-0 a.e.t.).

USA at the 2026 World Cup: A Round of 16 Run on Home Soil

The USMNT played World Cup matches on home soil for the first time since 1994. They topped Group D, won their Round of 32 tie 2-0 against Bosnia and Herzegovina at Levi’s Stadium, then went out in the Round of 16 with a 4-1 defeat to Belgium. The run was driven by Christian Pulisic and a young, largely European-based core, and matching the 1994 side’s Round of 16 finish on home soil was solid progress, even as the Belgium defeat exposed the gap to the tournament’s elite.

The Pre-Semifinal Outright Market: How the Last Four Were Priced

For the record, this is how the four semifinalists were priced in the outright market going into the last four, before Spain and Argentina came through to the final. These are historical pre-semifinal prices, not current odds, and they are a reminder of how the market read the closing stages: France headed the market, yet it was Spain, priced at +350, who went on to win the tournament.

TeamPre-semifinal odds (American)Key StrengthHow they finished
France+150Squad depth, most productive attackFourth place (lost semifinal to Spain, then third-place playoff)
Spain+350Possession dominance, meanest defenseChampions
Argentina+400Winning experience, knockout composureRunners-up
England+450Tactical flexibility, young coreThird place

The market had France at the head going into the semifinals on the back of a clean-sheet knockout run, with Spain the value side on the tournament’s meanest defense. Spain justified that read, winning from +350 while the shorter-priced France went out in the last four, exactly the single-elimination risk the pick scorecard above underlines.

How to Read American Odds

US sportsbooks primarily use American moneyline odds, which show how much you win on a 100 dollar stake or how much you must stake to win 100 dollars. A negative number such as -150 marks the favorite and shows the stake needed to win 100 dollars. A positive number such as +250 marks the underdog and shows the profit on a 100 dollar bet. The larger the positive number, the longer the odds and the bigger the potential payout. To find profit on positive odds, divide the odds by 100 and multiply by your stake: a 10 dollar bet at +450 returns 45 dollars profit plus your stake. For converting between formats, use our odds converter.

Responsible Gambling

Betting should enhance the way you follow a tournament, not create financial stress. Set a budget before you bet, use the deposit and time limits every major sportsbook offers, avoid chasing losses, and stick to consistent unit sizes. If betting stops being fun or you are staking more than you intended, free and confidential help is available.

Gamble Responsibly

Sports betting should enhance the way you follow a tournament, not create financial stress. Set a budget before you bet, use the deposit and time limits every major sportsbook offers, avoid chasing losses, and stick to consistent unit sizes.

If betting stops being fun or you are staking more than you intended, reach out for support.

National Problem Gambling Helpline 1-800-522-4700 (24/7 confidential support)
Alternative Hotline 1-800-GAMBLER
Online Chat Support NCPGambling.org/chat
Self-Exclusion Programs Every legal US sportsbook offers voluntary self-exclusion, typically for one to five years

You must be 21 or older to bet on sports in most US states (18 or older in DC, Kentucky, New Hampshire and Wyoming). All recommended sportsbooks verify age and identity before allowing betting. Underage gambling is illegal.

World Cup 2026 Recap Frequently Asked Questions

Who won the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Spain. They beat Argentina 1-0 after extra time in the final at MetLife Stadium on 19 July 2026, with Ferran Torres scoring the winner in the 106th minute. It was Spain’s second World Cup title, and they conceded only one goal in the entire tournament.

How far did the USA go at the 2026 World Cup?

The USMNT won Group D and came through their Round of 32 tie against Bosnia and Herzegovina at Levi’s Stadium, before their run ended in the Round of 16 with a 4-1 defeat to Belgium. Matching the 1994 side’s Round of 16 finish on home soil was solid progress for a young squad.

Who won the Golden Boot?

Kylian Mbappe, with 10 goals, two clear of Lionel Messi. He became the first player to win the World Cup Golden Boot twice and the tournament’s all-time leading scorer.

Where can I bet on soccer in the US?

Through licensed online sportsbooks available in your state. Confirm any sportsbook is licensed where you are and that you are physically located in a legal betting state before registering. FanDuel, BetMGM, DraftKings, Caesars, bet365 and Fanatics all operate under state gaming commission oversight.

What was the Round of 32 in the 2026 World Cup?

It was a new knockout round introduced in the expanded 48-team format, in which 32 teams advanced from the group stage instead of 16. It ran from 28 June to 3 July 2026 and produced early upsets, with Germany and the Netherlands both eliminated on penalties.

What are American odds and how do I read them?

American odds show how much you win on a 100 dollar stake or how much you must stake to win 100 dollars. A negative number such as -150 marks the favorite and shows the stake needed to win 100 dollars. A positive number such as +250 marks the underdog and shows the profit on a 100 dollar bet. This format is standard across US sportsbooks.

Are World Cup betting winnings taxable in the US?

Gambling winnings are generally treated as taxable income and must be reported to the IRS. Sportsbooks may issue tax forms for larger payouts, and rules vary by state. Verify with a qualified tax adviser for your situation.

When is the next World Cup?

The 2030 FIFA World Cup, co-hosted across Spain, Portugal and Morocco with three centenary matches in Uruguay, Argentina and Paraguay. Outright markets will open well in advance, and our predictions will return as they do.