World Cup 2026 Predictions and Semifinals Betting Tips

The latest World Cup predictions NZ reflect a bittersweet reality for Kiwi fans, the All Whites’ return to football’s biggest stage ended at the group stage, but Elijah Just’s three goals gave New Zealand plenty to be proud of. With the tournament now down to its final four, this hub turns to the semi-final value still on offer.

Drawn in Group G with Belgium, Egypt, and Iran, New Zealand faced a tough path and ultimately bowed out after a draw and two defeats. With the All Whites home, this hub now turns to the knockout-stage value still on offer for Kiwi punters, covering tournament outright picks, a full review of New Zealand’s campaign, and a round-by-round knockout recap through to the semi-finals, all grounded in sports science and NZ betting context. For a full tournament overview, visit our World Cup hub or explore broader markets in our NZ betting hub.

The 2026 World Cup has reached the semi-finals, and the four teams left are France, Spain, England, and defending champions Argentina. France meet Spain in Arlington and England face Argentina in Atlanta, with the final at MetLife Stadium on 19 July. Pre-tournament favourite Brazil are out, beaten by Norway in the Round of 16, as are all three co-hosts, the USA, Canada, and Mexico.

Tournament Outright, Who Will Win the 2026 World Cup

Team	Decimal Odds	Brief Take
France	2.50	Unbeaten; reached semis without conceding
Spain	4.50	Meanest defence; beat Portugal and Belgium
Argentina	5.00	Defending champions; needed extra time twice
England	5.50	Beat Mexico and Norway; Bellingham in form

All odds listed are illustrative only and correct at time of writing. Odds move frequently and should be verified with Betcha or TAB NZ before placing any bet.

France have moved to the head of the market at around 2.50 decimal, reaching the semi-finals as the form side of the tournament without conceding across their three knockout matches. Mbappe’s side, beaten finalists in 2022, have the depth and game management that decide knockout football, and they meet Spain in the last four.

Spain remain a strong second favourite at around 4.50 decimal after topping Group H and carrying the meanest defence in the tournament into the semi-finals, edging Portugal and Belgium along the way. Player freshness is still the big indicator of how far they go, and Spanish fans will be watching Lamine Yamal closely. The early bet I placed of 5 NZD on Spain to win at 5.75 decimal on Betcha on 12 April 2026 remains live with La Roja in the last four, though France’s shortening price has moved the market since.

Norway were the dark-horse story of the tournament. Built around Erling Haaland, they finished above Senegal in Group I, beat Ivory Coast 2-1 in the Round of 32, and then stunned Brazil in the last 16 before their run ended against England in the quarter-finals — a deep run that rewarded early backers. Portugal, balancing youth with Ronaldo’s experience in his sixth World Cup, came through the Round of 32 past Croatia before going out to Spain in the last 16, a reminder that veteran-led sides can fade once the knockouts tighten.

All Whites Group G, How the Campaign Unfolded

New Zealand returned to the World Cup for the first time in 16 years, having last appeared in 2010, but their campaign ended at the group stage. Drawn in Group G with Belgium, Egypt, and Iran, the All Whites took two points from a possible nine, finishing bottom of the group. The 5-1 final-day loss to Belgium was New Zealand’s first World Cup defeat in 44 years, ending the unbeaten record they had carried since drawing all three matches in 2010.

Belgium ultimately topped the group with that win over New Zealand, Egypt finished runners-up on goal difference, and Iran were eliminated in third. The All Whites finished fourth. Elijah Just was the standout, scoring three goals across the tournament — potentially a New Zealand record for some time — while Finn Surman impressed at the back and on set pieces.

From a betting perspective, the campaign was a reminder that match-specific markets offered better value than group outright bets for a longshot side. The pre-tournament multi I tested on 13 April 2026 — 5 NZD on New Zealand to score in at least two matches combined with under 3.5 goals across all three games — was undone by the Belgium goal-fest, a useful lesson in how variance hits accumulators in a single bad result.

Iran 2-2 New Zealand, the All Whites Opener

This was billed as New Zealand’s most winnable match, and it nearly was. Elijah Just struck twice to give the All Whites the lead on two occasions, but Mohammad Mohebi levelled for Iran in the 64th minute and the game finished 2-2. It was a frustrating result given New Zealand twice led, and those dropped points ultimately proved costly in a tight group.

Result, Iran 2-2 New Zealand.

The pre-match draw call at around 3.40 decimal landed — I had placed a 5 NZD bet on the draw at 3.40 on Betcha on 14 April 2026, expecting a tight contest, and a 2-2 scoreline duly settled it (odds correct at time of writing and subject to change). From a sports science angle, sprint capacity in the warm Los Angeles conditions told late, with both sides fading from high-tempo starts, exactly the energy-management pattern that supported a cautious read.

The match kicked off at approximately 1pm NZST on Tuesday 16 June 2026, played at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles.

New Zealand 1-3 Egypt, The Salah Match

This match centred on Mohamed Salah, and it slipped away from New Zealand. Finn Surman headed the All Whites in front and they led 1-0 at the break, but Egypt turned the game around after half-time to win 3-1, securing the Pharaohs’ first-ever World Cup victory. New Zealand’s inability to hold the halftime lead, rather than any ranking gap, was the story of the match.

Result, Egypt 3-1 New Zealand.

Both teams to score landed as an angle — I had bet 5 NZD on BTTS yes at 1.85 decimal, and Surman’s goal plus Egypt’s three settled it (odds correct at time of writing and subject to change). Age and workload were relevant here. Salah, now 34 and the tournament’s oldest scorer in this fixture, again showed elite players sustain output but lean on recovery cycles, a trend highlighted in our football fitness testing guide. BC Place in Vancouver offered cooler conditions, but Egypt’s second-half quality proved decisive.

The match kicked off at approximately 1pm NZST on Monday 22 June 2026, played at BC Place in Vancouver.

New Zealand 1-5 Belgium, The Toughest Test

Needing a win to keep their hopes alive, New Zealand ran into a Belgium side that finally clicked. Leandro Trossard scored twice, with Kevin De Bruyne, Romelu Lukaku, and Alexis Saelemaekers also on target as the Red Devils won 5-1 to top the group. Elijah Just’s 84th-minute strike — his third of the tournament — briefly threatened to shake up the standings before Lukaku restored the three-goal cushion almost immediately.

Result, New Zealand 1-5 Belgium.

Over 2.5 goals was always the read, and the Belgium -1.5 handicap I backed at 1.65 decimal comfortably landed given their depth (odds correct at time of writing and subject to change). From a sports science perspective, this match underlined recovery cycles. Three games in a short window tested squad depth, and Belgium’s ability to rotate — bringing Lukaku off the bench to immediate effect — reflected the patterns outlined in our football fitness testing guide. For New Zealand, a defensively heavy schedule simply caught up with them against elite opposition.

The match kicked off at approximately 3pm NZST on Saturday 27 June 2026, played at BC Place in Vancouver.

Group Stage Recap, How the Other 11 Groups Finished

With the group stage long complete, here is how the rest of the field shaped up, with the value angles that landed and the qualifiers confirmed.

Group	Winner	How It Finished
A	Mexico	Mexico won; South Africa 2nd; Czechia out
B	Switzerland	Canada 2nd (reached last 16); Bosnia 3rd
C	Brazil	Morocco 2nd (reached QF); Scotland out on GD
D	USA	Australia 2nd; Paraguay 3rd; Turkiye out
E	Germany	Ivory Coast 2nd; Ecuador 3rd (beat Germany)
F	Netherlands	Japan 2nd; Sweden 3rd
G	Belgium	Egypt 2nd; Iran 3rd out; New Zealand 4th
H	Spain	Cape Verde 2nd (debut last 32)
I	France	Norway 2nd (dark-horse call landed); Senegal 3rd
J	Argentina	Austria 2nd; Algeria 3rd (knocked out Iran)
K	Colombia	Portugal 2nd; DR Congo 3rd
L	England	Croatia 2nd; Ghana 3rd; Panama out

Group I, featuring France, Norway, Senegal, and Iraq, proved the strongest non-host group as expected, sending three sides into the knockouts. France topped it despite the 4-1 loss to Norway, who confirmed their dark-horse billing with a run to the quarter-finals, while Senegal advanced as a best third-placed team. Our pre-tournament read on Norway to advance and Haaland as a top-scorer angle aged well.

Group L, with England, Croatia, Ghana, and Panama, was as balanced as predicted. England won it after an entertaining 4-2 opener against Croatia, who advanced as runners-up, while Ghana sneaked through as a best third-placed side and Panama went out. Those small margins shaped the knockout bracket, and England have gone on to reach the semi-finals.

Knockout Recap, From Round of 32 to the Semi-Finals

The 48-team format introduced a Round of 32, where the top two from each group plus the eight best third-placed teams advanced. That added volatility showed immediately, with Germany and the Netherlands both knocked out on penalties in the opening ties, and co-hosts Canada beating South Africa for a historic first knockout win. Through the early rounds, value sat in handicap markets rather than outright winners, especially where underdogs were underestimated.

Round of 32 Results

• Canada 1-0 South Africa; Brazil 2-1 Japan; Germany 1-1 Paraguay (Paraguay won 4-3 on penalties); Netherlands 1-1 Morocco (Morocco won 3-2 on penalties).
• Norway 2-1 Ivory Coast; France 3-0 Sweden; Mexico 2-0 Ecuador; England 2-1 DR Congo.
• Belgium 3-2 Senegal (after extra time); USA 2-0 Bosnia and Herzegovina; Spain 3-0 Austria; Portugal 2-1 Croatia.
• Switzerland 2-1 Algeria; Egypt 1-1 Australia (Egypt won 4-2 on penalties); Argentina 3-2 Cape Verde (after extra time); Colombia 1-0 Ghana.

Among New Zealand’s Group G rivals, Belgium and Egypt both carried into the knockouts but went no further than the Round of 16. Belgium beat Senegal in extra time in the Round of 32 and then thrashed the USA 4-1 in the last 16 before losing to Spain in the quarter-finals, while Egypt’s reward for a historic group-stage campaign was a Round of 32 win over Australia on penalties before Argentina ended their run. For Kiwi punters still following the tournament, tracking the teams that knocked New Zealand out added a natural storyline to knockout betting.

Round of 16 Results

• France 1-0 Paraguay; Morocco 3-0 Canada; Norway 2-1 Brazil, the tournament’s biggest shock; England 3-2 Mexico.
• Spain 1-0 Portugal; Belgium 4-1 USA; Argentina 3-2 Egypt (after extra time); Switzerland 0-0 Colombia (Switzerland won 4-3 on penalties).

Quarter-Final Results

The quarter-finals produced a clean sweep for the top-ranked sides. For the first time in World Cup history, all four of FIFA’s top four-ranked teams reached the semi-finals.

• France 2-0 Morocco; Spain 2-1 Belgium; England 2-1 Norway (after extra time); Argentina 3-1 Switzerland (after extra time).

The Semi-Finals

France meet Spain in Arlington on 14 July, the market’s two best sides drawn a round early, with France’s counter-attacking threat through Mbappe against Spain’s possession control and meanest defence. England face defending champions Argentina in Atlanta on 15 July, a heavyweight tie between the tournament’s second favourites and Lionel Messi’s side in his likely final World Cup. France are favoured to reach the final from the first tie, and England are marginal favourites in the second.

Final prediction, France to lift the trophy at MetLife Stadium on 19 July. France’s clean-sheet knockout run and squad depth give them the edge across the closing two matches. From a sports science view, fatigue becomes decisive by the semi-final stage, and teams with deeper rotation maintain performance levels. My early 5.75 decimal bet on Spain remains live into the last four, but the market has moved firmly France’s way.

Sports Science Edge, The topendsports.com Predictions Layer

This predictions hub is built on more than form and reputation. Sports science is the edge, and you can explore the underlying data in our football fitness testing guide. Age curves are central, and players like Chris Wood at 33, Mohamed Salah at 34, Romelu Lukaku at 32, Luka Modric at 40, and Cristiano Ronaldo at 41 all show how elite athletes sustain performance beyond their peak, even as VO2 max declines from the late 20s. As the group stage showed — Salah’s decisive second-half display against New Zealand a case in point — recovery between matches matters more than peak output.

Heat and humidity are the second factor. June and July fixtures across venues like Los Angeles, Dallas, Houston, and Atlanta create conditions that slow the tempo. This favoured defensive teams such as Morocco through their run to the quarter-finals, while high-pressing sides can lose intensity late in matches. Recovery windows are the third layer. Group matches every four to five days, followed by a longer knockout stretch, reward squads with depth — exactly the edge Belgium showed in rotating Lukaku off the bench to finish off New Zealand, and the edge France have carried on a clean-sheet run to the last four. These are not generic tips. They are the data points our team uses when we make the predictions above.

Where Kiwis Can Legally Bet on These Predictions

In New Zealand, TAB NZ and Betcha are the only legal options for sports betting, operating under the same regulatory framework through the Entain partnership, with pricing technology linked to Ladbrokes Australia. World Cup markets include outright winner, group winner, to qualify, match 1X2, both teams to score, over/under, and multi bets, with decimal odds as standard. I tested Betcha’s outright market on 12 April 2026, with Spain priced at 5.75 decimal, noting small variations from international benchmarks.

If you are travelling to the USA, Canada, or Mexico for the tournament, the Department of Internal Affairs permits betting with offshore operators while physically outside New Zealand. Reference operators include RoyalistPlay, Directionbet, FestivalPlay, LegendPlay, and Betalright. None of these operators are authorised by the DIA to accept bets from persons located in New Zealand. Within NZ, always use TAB NZ or Betcha. For more details, visit the official pages of TAB NZ and Betcha.

Responsible Gambling in New Zealand

Sports betting in New Zealand is for those aged 18 and over, and support is always available if it stops feeling like entertainment. Free, confidential help is offered 24 hours a day through Gambling Helpline NZ on 0800 654 655 or text 8006. The Problem Gambling Foundation can be reached on 0800 664 262, and Mapu Maia provides dedicated Pasifika support on 0800 21 21 22. TAB NZ and Betcha also offer tools such as deposit limits, session limits, and self-exclusion, although New Zealand does not have a single national self-exclusion register.

The World Cup runs across six weeks with daily fixtures, which can increase the risk of chasing losses. With the All Whites now eliminated, it is a natural point to review your tournament budget and stick to it. Treat predictions as entertainment, not income, and avoid trying to recover losses over a long run of matches. Always bet responsibly.

• Offshore operator self-exclusion caveat. Each offshore operator on this page offers its own self-exclusion mechanism, but these apply only to that individual brand. No NZ-wide exclusion register exists for offshore platforms, meaning a self-exclusion with one operator does not carry across to others. This is a material consumer-protection gap relative to TAB NZ and Betcha.
• Report illegal operators. If you encounter an offshore operator taking bets from New Zealand residents, you can report them directly to the Department of Internal Affairs at gambling@dia.govt.nz.

FAQ, World Cup 2026 Predictions for New Zealand

Who is the favourite to win the 2026 World Cup?

France are the tournament favourite at approximately 2.50 decimal after reaching the semi-finals as the unbeaten form side, without conceding in the knockouts. Spain, England, and defending champions Argentina are the other three semi-finalists and the only sides left in the outright market. Brazil, a pre-tournament favourite, were knocked out by Norway in the Round of 16.

How did the All Whites do at the 2026 World Cup?

New Zealand were eliminated in the group stage, finishing fourth in Group G with two points. They drew 2-2 with Iran, lost 3-1 to Egypt after leading at half-time, and lost 5-1 to Belgium on the final day, their first World Cup defeat in 44 years. Elijah Just was the standout with three goals across the tournament. Belgium won the group and Egypt finished second, with both advancing to the Round of 32.

What were the best value markets in New Zealand’s group games?

Match-specific markets offered better value than group outright bets, as expected for a longshot side. The draw in the Iran opener (around 3.40 decimal) landed with a 2-2 result, and both teams to score against Egypt (around 1.85 decimal) also came in thanks to Finn Surman’s goal. The Belgium handicap markets paid off given the Red Devils’ 5-1 win.

Did the All Whites ever win a match at the 2026 World Cup?

No. New Zealand’s wait for a first-ever World Cup win continues. They drew with Iran and lost to Egypt and Belgium, extending a winless World Cup record across their 1982, 2010, and 2026 appearances. The 2026 campaign did, however, end their 44-year unbeaten streak, as they had drawn all three matches in 2010.

Which Group G teams advanced, and how far did they go?

Belgium won Group G and Egypt finished second on goal difference, with both reaching the Round of 32. Iran were eliminated in third and New Zealand finished fourth. Belgium beat Senegal and then the USA before losing to Spain in the quarter-finals, while Egypt beat Australia on penalties in the Round of 32 before Argentina ended their run in the last 16.

Can I legally bet on World Cup predictions from New Zealand?

Yes. Under the Racing Industry Act 2020, as amended 28 June 2025, TAB NZ is the only operator legally authorised to accept sports bets from persons in New Zealand. TAB NZ operates under the TAB and Betcha brands. Offshore operators are not authorised to take bets from anyone located within New Zealand. If you are physically overseas, DIA guidance permits betting with offshore operators while outside NZ.

What odds format does TAB NZ use for World Cup outright markets?

TAB NZ and Betcha use decimal odds as their default format. All odds on this page are presented in decimal format. For example, France’s outright winner odds are approximately 2.50 decimal, meaning a 1 NZD bet returns 2.50 NZD if successful. Odds move frequently and should always be verified with the operator before placing a bet.

Who were the dark horses of the 2026 tournament?

Norway were the standout dark horse and backed it up, finishing above Senegal in Group I, beating Ivory Coast in the Round of 32, and stunning Brazil in the last 16 before losing to England in the quarter-finals. Their attack was built around Erling Haaland, a live Golden Boot contender. Portugal, balancing youth with Cristiano Ronaldo’s experience in his sixth World Cup, went out earlier in the knockouts.

How did the new Round of 32 affect knockout predictions?

The 48-team format introduced a Round of 32, where the top two from each group plus the eight best third-placed teams advance. This added early-round volatility, with Germany and the Netherlands both eliminated on penalties in the opening ties. Value in the R32 sat in handicap markets rather than outright results, especially when underdogs were underestimated. The traditional powers stabilised from the quarter-finals onward, with all four top-ranked sides reaching the semi-finals.

Where can Kiwis get help if gambling becomes a problem?

Free, confidential support is available 24/7. Contact Gambling Helpline NZ on 0800 654 655 (or text 8006), the Problem Gambling Foundation on 0800 664 262, or Mapu Maia for Pasifika support on 0800 21 21 22. TAB NZ and Betcha also offer tools including deposit limits, session limits, and self-exclusion. Visit gamblinghelpline.co.nz for online chat support.