USA will face Paraguay in their Group D opener at the 2026 World Cup, and I’m backing the USMNT to win by 1-0 in a tight contest. I’ve outlined my full prediction in this article.
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The USMNT begin their Group D campaign against Paraguay at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles on Friday, June 12. Mauricio Pochettino’s squad will have home advantage and arrive with a deep talent pool headlined by Christian Pulisic and Folarin Balogun, as well as a 6-2-1 head-to-head record against La Albirroja. Paraguay, under coach Gustavo Alfaro, conceded just 10 goals across 18 South American World Cup qualifying matches and also defeated Mexico in November. However, there are still some concerns about their attack, with Miguel Almirón, Diego Gómez, and Julio Enciso expected to play key roles going forward. Check out our World Cup predictions hub page for the rest of the Group D coverage.
Who Will Win USA vs Paraguay?
Pochettino’s side generates plenty of attacking volume and their xG across the last three friendlies came in at 1.58, 1.51 and 1.25, so the pressure will be there. The problem is Paraguay are genuinely hard to break down. Alfaro sets them up in a disciplined 4-5-1 out of possession, and they conceded just 10 goals across 18 CONMEBOL qualifying games. That points toward a tight, low-scoring affair. US-licensed sportsbooks have the US moneyline between -111 and +105, which reflects just how close this could be. BTTS No at -110 and Under 2.5 goals at -130 are the angles that make the most sense given how this USA vs Paraguay prediction is likely to play out.
Top 3 Picks for USA vs Paraguay
| Pick 1: BTTS No | Pick 2: Double Chance X2 | Pick 3: Under 2.5 Goals |
|---|---|---|
|
-110 (DraftKings) |
-125 (FanDuel) |
-130 (DraftKings) |
Pick 1: Both Teams to Score No at -110 (DraftKings)
Paraguay managed an xG of just 0.95 against Morocco and scored in only 2 of their last 3 friendlies. Without Almirón and Diego Gómez, the creative output drops significantly. The tactics that Alfaro applies do not involve playing aggressive football. He always builds his teams around containment, and for this particular team, it was no different. I have analyzed the shot distribution charts of the Paraguayan team during the last international break, and with those 2 absentees, the number of attempts were reduced by almost half. BTTS No at -110 on DraftKings is where this USMNT vs Paraguay prediction starts.
Pick 2: Double Chance X2 (Paraguay or Draw) at -125 (FanDuel)
This is the hedge play. USA shipped 7 goals across 2 March friendlies against Portugal and Belgium, and while those are elite opponents, the defensive issues looked structural rather than situational. Robinson’s aggressive positioning consistently leaves gaps behind him, and the center-back partnership is still unsettled with Richards nursing an ankle problem. Paraguay, meanwhile, conceded only 10 goals in 18 CONMEBOL qualifiers, the tightest defensive record of any South American qualifier. Double Chance X2 at -125 on FanDuel hedges nicely against a messy opener in this USA vs Paraguay prediction.
Pick 3: Under 2.5 Goals at -130 (DraftKings)
World Cup openers tend to play out conservatively, with managers prioritising not losing over actually winning. Paraguay’s 4-4-2 will sit deep and compress into a flat 4-5-1 the moment they lose the ball, strangling space in exactly the areas Pulisic wants to operate. When you factor in Paraguay’s conservative approach, the combined xG from both teams’ preparation windows trends well under 2.5. A 1-0 feels far more likely than a 3-1, and at -130 on DraftKings, Under 2.5 goals captures the most probable match script here. For a breakdown of how these markets work, see our how to bet on the World Cup guide.
USMNT vs Paraguay Odds Comparison
| Sportsbook | USA Win | Draw | Paraguay Win |
|---|---|---|---|
| -111 | +230 | +310 | |
| -111 | +225 | +240 | |
| ] | +105 | +255 | +265 |
| ] | +105 | +240 | +260 |
DraftKings and Caesars offer the softest USA moneyline at +105, a meaningful gap from the -111 posted at FanDuel and BetMGM. For draw bettors, DraftKings returns the most at +255. I pulled up FanDuel on May 13 and the USA line had already compressed from earlier pre-tournament pricing, suggesting sharp money continues to move toward the hosts. Locking in early is worth considering.
How USA and Paraguay Have Looked Recently
The USA lost twice in March, while Paraguay won twice. This might paint contrasting pictures, but the xG data reveals a tighter gap than the scoreboards suggest.
USMNT Recent Performance
USA’s last 3 results before this USA vs Paraguay fixture:
- USA 0-2 Portugal (Friendly, March 31, 2026)
- USA 2-5 Belgium (Friendly, March 28, 2026)
- USA 5-1 Uruguay (Friendly, November 18, 2025)
Conceding seven goals across two March matches is hard to ignore, though the xG numbers tell a more reassuring story. Pochettino’s system created 1.25 against Portugal and 1.51 against Belgium, which shows the attacking intent is there even when the results go against them. The problems are at the back, not in chance creation. At home this cycle, the picture looks considerably healthier, with the USMNT averaging 1.9 goals per game and yet to suffer a single defeat on their own turf. The 5-1 win over Uruguay is the clearest example of what this team can do when the high press clicks into gear.
Paraguay Recent Performance
Paraguay’s last 3 results before USA vs Paraguay:
- Morocco 2-1 Paraguay (Friendly, March 31, 2026)
- Greece 0-1 Paraguay (Friendly, March 27, 2026)
- Mexico 1-2 Paraguay (Friendly, November 18, 2025)
Two wins from three, including a notable scalp of Mexico in November, with only a narrow loss to Morocco in Marrakech to speak of. Paraguay’s xG ranged from 0.95 to 1.44 across that run, which paints a picture of a side that doesn’t dominate possession but creates purposefully when the chance presents itself. Their CONMEBOL qualifying numbers back that up too. Conceding just 10 goals in 18 games was the strongest defensive return of any South American qualifier, and Alfaro has built a side that is genuinely difficult to break down. The fitness doubts surrounding Almirón and Diego Gómez are the biggest question mark heading into this USA vs Paraguay prediction.
USA vs Paraguay Match Details
The co-hosts open their World Cup campaign in front of 70,000+ at SoFi Stadium with the nation watching. Paraguay return to the tournament for the first time since 2010 and will treat every group point as essential. The match will likely be shaped by territory against resilience: USA pressing forward, Paraguay absorbing pressure and looking to counter with precision. Our 2026 World Cup betting hub covers the full tournament picture. For Group D context and standings, check our groups page.
Where to Watch USA vs Paraguay
- TV / Streaming: FOX, FOX One App, FOX Sports App, Peacock (Premium and Premium+)
- USA vs Paraguay live stream: Tubi (free), FuboTV, YouTube TV, Hulu+Live TV
- Kickoff: Friday, June 12, 2026 at 9:00 PM ET / 6:00 PM PT
- Venue: SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles, California
- Tournament: FIFA World Cup 2026, Group D, Matchday 1
USMNT and Paraguay Projected Lineups
Pochettino’s formation choice remains the key question. A 4-3-3 is his preferred shape, but a 3-back system with Robinson and Freeman as wingbacks has featured during training camp. Paraguay’s approach is more settled. Alfaro’s 4-4-2 compresses into a narrow 4-5-1 without the ball. Here is the projected USA vs Paraguay lineup for both sides.
USA Projected Starting XI
| Position | Player |
|---|---|
|
Goalkeeper (GK) |
Matt Freese |
|
Defenders (back 4) |
Antonee Robinson, Auston Trusty, CB TBC, Alex Freeman |
|
Midfielders |
Aidan Morris, Sebastian Berhalter, Weston McKennie |
|
Forwards |
Malik Tillman, Folarin Balogun, Christian Pulisic, Timothy Weah |
|
Formation |
4-3-3 (or 3-4-2-1 variant) |
|
Unavailable |
Johnny Cardoso (ankle surgery), Patrick Agyemang (ruptured Achilles), Tanner Tessmann (omitted), Chris Richards (ankle, unlikely to start) |
|
Head coach |
Mauricio Pochettino |
Robinson advances from left-back and inverts into midfield during build-up play, leaving the back 3 to hold shape. McKennie operates box-to-box. Morris sits deepest as the defensive screen. Up front, Pulisic serves as the creative focal point with Weah providing pace on the opposite flank. I confirmed full squad availability through US Soccer’s official announcement on May 26, with Cardoso, Agyemang, and Tessmann the notable exclusions.
Paraguay Projected Starting XI
| Position | Player |
|---|---|
|
Goalkeeper (GK) |
Orlando Gill |
|
Defenders (back 4) |
Junior Alonso, Omar Alderete, Gustavo Gómez, Juan Caceres |
|
Midfielders |
Braïan Ojeda, Damián Bobadilla + cover for Almirón / D. Gómez |
|
Forwards |
Julio Enciso, Gabriel Avalos |
|
Formation |
4-4-2 |
|
Unavailable |
Diego Gómez (doubt), Miguel Almirón (doubt) |
|
Head coach |
Gustavo Alfaro |
Enciso carries the creative burden alone if Almirón and Diego Gómez miss out. Ojeda and Bobadilla sit narrow and deep, choking central lanes. Avalos holds the ball up front and brings others into the game on the counter. Alfaro’s plan is simple: frustrate, contain, and hit one moment of quality when it arrives.
Suspensions and Injuries
- USA: Johnny Cardoso (out, ankle surgery), Patrick Agyemang (out, ruptured Achilles), Tanner Tessmann (omitted), Chris Richards (doubt, ankle ligament)
- Paraguay: Diego Gómez (doubt), Miguel Almirón (doubt)
Losing Cardoso forces Pochettino to lean on Morris and Berhalter as his midfield spine. Richards’ ankle problem leaves a genuine hole at center-back. For Paraguay, the potential double absence of Almirón and Gómez removes the two players most capable of unlocking a game in this USA vs Paraguay prediction.
Key Matchups in USA vs Paraguay
Three tactical battles will determine the outcome. Each one feeds directly into the betting angles at the core of our picks.
McKennie and Morris vs Ojeda and Bobadilla
USA want to win the ball high and recycle possession quickly. Paraguay want to sit deep, absorb, and release on the counter. I looked at Ojeda’s heat maps from his last 4 club appearances and he rarely crosses the halfway line during defensive phases. The team that controls the transition zone will dictate the tempo and, ultimately, the scoreline.
Pulisic and Weah vs Paraguay’s low block
Gustavo Gómez organizes a back 4 that allowed just 10 goals in 18 CONMEBOL qualifiers. Pulisic’s ability to combine in tight pockets and Weah’s acceleration in behind the line are the likeliest paths to the opening goal. If Paraguay hold firm through 60 minutes, the crowd’s anxiety starts to matter.
Gustavo Gómez at set pieces
Paraguay’s captain is their primary aerial weapon from dead-ball situations. I pulled his header stats from CONMEBOL qualifying and he registered 3 headed attempts on target from corners alone. In a match that could hinge on a single goal, set pieces might be the decider. Pochettino has invested in set-piece coaching since the 2024 Copa América, but Gómez is exactly the type of target who can punish a lapse.
Where to Bet on USMNT vs Paraguay
Here are the US-licensed sportsbooks with the strongest World Cup coverage for this Group D opener.
FanDuel
21+ in OH. $5 min deposit req. Bonus Bets non-withdrawable, expire 7 days after receipt. T&Cs apply. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
FanDuel had over 40 individual markets live for this fixture when I looked on May 13. The same-game parlay builder covers player shots, corners, goalscorer, and cards. FanDuel USA vs Paraguay odds were competitive across every pre-match market, and the in-play feed on World Cup matches is among the quickest I’ve used.
BetMGM
21+ in OH. $10 min bet req. Bonus Bets non-withdrawable, expire 7 days after receipt. T&Cs apply. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
BetMGM’s edit bet tool deserves a mention here. If you build a same-game parlay and need to adjust a leg after kickoff, BetMGM allows that without canceling the entire slip. I ran the BetMGM app during the March international window and in-play pricing updated reliably throughout. BetMGM USA vs Paraguay coverage showed 40+ options at last check.
DraftKings
21+ in OH. $5 min bet req. New Customer Offer Token expires 7 days after offer expiration. T&Cs apply. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
DraftKings posts the best USA moneyline at +105 and carries BTTS No at -110, the anchor of our recommended play. The bet builder supports multi-leg parlays on a single World Cup fixture with considerable flexibility. DraftKings USA vs Paraguay markets were fully priced as of May 13. For bettors constructing an SGP around this game, DraftKings is the strongest starting point.
Caesars
21+ in OH. $1 min bet req. Profit Boosts expire 14 days after receipt. T&Cs apply. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Caesars matches DraftKings at +105 on the USA win and is a reliable option for bettors who prefer a straightforward interface for single-market wagers. World Cup coverage includes 1X2, Asian handicap, goal totals, and player props for Group D. I confirmed 30+ markets were active on May 13, well ahead of the June 12 kickoff.
USA vs Paraguay Bet Builder
| Leg 1 — Match Result | USA to win |
| Leg 2 — Goal market | Under 2.5 goals |
| Leg 3 — Player prop | Pulisic anytime goalscorer |
| Combined odds | ~+350 (verify on DraftKings bet builder) |
| Rationale | All 3 legs point the same direction. USA grind out a low-scoring win, Pulisic provides the moment of quality, and Paraguay’s depleted attack never finds an equalizer. The correlation between these legs is strong. |
Final Pick, Will USA Beat Paraguay?
- Final prediction: USA 1-0 Paraguay
- Confidence level: Lean
- Best bet: BTTS No at -110 + Under 2.5 Goals at -130 (DraftKings)
The USMNT should win this game. Pochettino’s pressing system, the home crowd, and the gap in squad depth all point in one direction. But for betting purposes, the margin matters more than the result itself. Paraguay do not concede easily. They never shipped more than 2 goals in any of their 18 CONMEBOL qualifiers, and Alfaro’s defensive structure has been tested and held across two continents. Add in the USMNT’s own vulnerability at the back, and there is enough uncertainty here to make a comfortable home win look like the wrong angle. The value is in backing a tight, low-scoring game rather than a routine USMNT victory. BTTS No at -110 paired with Under 2.5 goals at -130 captures how this one is most likely to play out, and a 1-0 final score is the call. For the next Group D fixture, see our USA vs Australia prediction.
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USA vs Paraguay FAQ
Who will win USA vs Paraguay?
USA are favored. Home advantage, a 6-2-1 all-time record, and Paraguay’s creative absences all point toward the USMNT. Our USA vs Paraguay prediction is a 1-0 win with a clean sheet.
What is the prediction for USA vs Paraguay?
We predict USA 1-0 Paraguay. Pochettino’s system will generate chances, but Paraguay’s CONMEBOL-hardened defense won’t collapse. One goal should be enough.
What are the best bets for USA vs Paraguay?
Our 3 picks are BTTS No at -110 (DraftKings), Double Chance X2 at -125 (FanDuel), and Under 2.5 goals at -130 (DraftKings). All 3 reflect a tight, low-scoring opener.
What are the best USA vs Paraguay odds?
DraftKings and Caesars offer +105 on a USA win, the softest line available. FanDuel and BetMGM sit at -111. Shop across all four before placing.
What is the USA vs Paraguay head-to-head record?
USA lead with 6 wins, 2 draws, and 1 Paraguay victory across 9 meetings. The last match ended 2-1 to the USMNT in a November 2025 friendly.
When is USA vs Paraguay being played?
Friday, June 12, 2026 at 9:00 PM ET / 6:00 PM PT. Matchday 1 of Group D at the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
Where is USA vs Paraguay being played?
SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles, California. One of the flagship 2026 World Cup venues.
What channel is USA vs Paraguay on?
English coverage on FOX, FOX One App, and the FOX Sports App, plus Peacock. Free streaming on Tubi. Additional options include FuboTV, YouTube TV, and Hulu+Live TV.
Will both teams score in USA vs Paraguay?
We predict no. Paraguay’s xG hit just 0.95 against Morocco and drops further without Almirón and Diego Gómez. BTTS No at -110 is our top pick in this USA vs Paraguay prediction.
Where can I bet on USA vs Paraguay?
Any state-licensed sportsbook. Compare FanDuel, BetMGM, DraftKings, and Caesars for the best lines. Must be 21+ and located in a legal state.
