The USA face Turkey in their Group D finale at the 2026 World Cup. My prediction is that the USMNT will edge this one by 2-1. Keep reading this guide to learn more.
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This summer, Group D takes center stage as the USMNT faces Turkey on Thursday, June 25, at 10:00 PM ET inside SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles. While Pochettino’s side will have home-field advantage, Turkey should still be a force to be reckoned with as they make their first World Cup appearance in 24 years. They’ll also arrive with two of the most exciting young talents in world soccer: Arda Güler and Kenan Yıldız. That said, Güler’s fitness remains a major question mark heading into the tournament, as I’ll explore in this guide.
The memory of their June 2025 friendly in Connecticut will undoubtedly still be fresh in the minds of both teams. After Jack McGlynn gave the U.S. an early lead, Güler and Kerem Aktürkoğlu completely turned the match on its head with a devastating two-goal blitz in the space of three minutes.
For full Group D context, check out our World Cup predictions hub.
Who Will Win USA vs Turkey?
The USA are favored to beat Turkey 2-1 in their 2026 World Cup Group D finale. Pochettino’s team will have home advantage at SoFi Stadium, and fitness concerns around Arda Guler and Hakan Calhanoglu tip the scales toward the hosts. Licensed US sportsbooks have the USA moneyline around +140, with BTTS Yes at -128 and Over 1.5 Goals at -310 as the key markets.
Top 3 Picks for USA vs Turkey
| Pick 1: USA Win | Pick 2: BTTS Yes | Pick 3: Over 1.5 Goals |
|---|---|---|
|
+140 (FanDuel) |
-128 |
-310 |
Pick 1, USA Win at +140 (FanDuel)
The head-to-head is dead level at 2-2-1, but this is a World Cup decider at SoFi with 70,000 screaming for the hosts. Pochettino’s 3-4-3 generates overloads through the wing-backs and the USMNT’s xG output holds up well at home. Turkey won 2-1 in June 2025, but that was a different Turkey. I cross-referenced Guler’s minutes at Real Madrid from April onward and he hasn’t played competitively since April 21. Calhanoglu’s soleus problems kept him out of Inter’s final stretch too. At +140 on FanDuel, the USA moneyline is where I’d start building this USMNT vs Turkey prediction.
Pick 2, Both Teams to Score Yes at -128
Seven goals conceded in two March friendlies. That’s the number that keeps showing up in Pochettino’s defensive record. The high press creates chances but leaves acres of space in behind. Turkey, even at 70% fitness, have the pace and technique to punish that. On the other end, Pulisic and Balogun give the USMNT enough firepower to score against anyone. I reviewed the June 2025 H2H where Turkey overturned McGlynn’s opener with two goals in three minutes, and that pattern supports BTTS Yes at -128 in this USA vs Turkey prediction.
Pick 3, Over 1.5 Goals at -310
Everything about these two teams screams goals. Pochettino’s side press high and leave gaps. Montella’s Turkey thrive on quick vertical transitions. I tracked Turkey’s xG across their last 3 competitive outings and it averaged 1.47 per match, while the USMNT put up 0.94 xG per game in defeat. With group qualification on the line, neither side can park the bus. Over 1.5 at -310 is heavily juiced, but the 2-1 correct score line is the speculative play at any US-licensed sportsbook.
USMNT vs Turkey Odds Comparison
| Sportsbook | USA Win | Draw | Turkey Win |
|---|---|---|---|
| +140 | +240 | +185 | |
| TBA | TBA | TBA | |
| TBA | TBA | TBA | |
| TBA | TBA | TBA |
FanDuel has the only verified price so far at +140 for a USA win, with BetMGM USA vs Turkey lines, DraftKings USA vs Turkey odds, and Caesars all expected closer to June 25. I pulled up the BetMGM match page on May 26 and the fixture was listed but not yet priced. The Double Chance gap (USA/Draw -250, Turkey/Draw -190) suggests the market views Turkey as live underdogs. FanDuel USA vs Turkey odds could shift as public money loads in closer to kickoff.
Team USA and Turkey Recent Form
The form profiles tell opposite stories. The USMNT’s results look rough on paper but the underlying chance creation holds up. Turkey’s numbers are clean, though fitness clouds the picture.
USMNT Recent Performance
USA’s last 3 results ahead of this USMNT vs Turkey prediction:
- USA vs Senegal (Friendly, May 31, 2026) TBA
- USA 0-2 Portugal (Friendly, March 31, 2026)
- USA 2-5 Belgium (Friendly, March 28, 2026)
It’s hard to ignore how ugly the March results look on paper. However, that isn’t what the xG stats tell us. Against Portugal and Belgium, Pochettino’s team generated 0.68 xG and 1.2 xG respectively, showing that even against top European sides, his formation still produces real chances. The loss to Belgium had more to do with the backline than anything else. After analyzing every game since Pochettino took over, the USMNT have lost 5 of their last 8 friendlies.
Turkey Recent Performance
Turkey’s last 3 results heading into USA vs Turkey:
- Turkey 2-0 Kosovo (WCQ Playoff, March 31, 2026)
- Turkey 3-1 Romania (WCQ Playoff, March 26, 2026)
- Turkey 1-1 Spain (Nations League, November 18, 2025)
Two playoff wins and a draw against Spain is a serious recent run. Turkey’s xG ranged from 1.21 (Kosovo) to roughly 2.0 (Spain). I looked up Guler’s qualifying numbers on the TFF’s official site and he created 12 chances with 4 assists across the campaign. The question mark is his body. He tore his hamstring on April 21 and hasn’t played competitively since. Calhanoglu’s soleus strain adds to the concern. Those two fitness situations tilt this USA vs Turkey prediction toward the hosts, and the Group D standings may hinge on whether they’re truly match-ready.
USA vs Turkey Match Details
The USMNT are 1 of 3 co-hosts at the 2026 World Cup, and SoFi Stadium will be sold out for this Matchday 3 decider. Turkey’s return after 24 years is one of the great storylines of the group stage. This game will be physical and open. Pochettino will push his wing-backs high and try to overwhelm Montella’s backline. Turkey will absorb that pressure and look to spring Guler, Yildiz and Akturkoglu into space on the counter. For broader tournament coverage, see our 2026 World Cup betting hub.
Where to Watch USA vs Turkey
- TV / Streaming: FOX (primary English), Telemundo (Spanish), FOX One App (all 104 matches free)
- USA vs Turkey live stream: FuboTV, DirecTV Stream, Sling Blue, Hulu+Live TV
- Kickoff: Thursday, June 25, 2026 at 10:00 PM ET / 7:00 PM PT
- Venue: SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles, California
- Tournament: FIFA World Cup 2026, Group D, Matchday 3
USMNT and Turkey Projected Lineups
Pochettino is expected to go with his 3-4-3, while Montella sticks with the 4-2-3-1 that carried Turkey through qualifying. The USA have several confirmed tournament absences, and Turkey’s two headline stars are nursing injuries that could limit their impact in this USA vs Turkey lineup.
USA Projected Starting XI
| Position | Player |
|---|---|
|
Goalkeeper (GK) |
Matt Freese |
|
Defenders (back 3) |
Chris Richards, Tim Ream, Miles Robinson |
|
Wing-backs |
Sergiño Dest (R), Antonee Robinson (L) |
|
Midfielders |
Tyler Adams, Weston McKennie |
|
Forwards |
Tim Weah, Christian Pulisic, Folarin Balogun |
|
Formation |
3-4-3 |
|
Unavailable |
Johnny Cardoso (out), Patrick Agyemang (out), Jonathan Klinsmann (out), Cameron Carter-Vickers (doubtful), Tanner Tessmann (doubtful) |
|
Head coach |
Mauricio Pochettino |
The 3-4-3 gives Pochettino width through Dest and Robinson while Adams and McKennie sit as the double pivot. Pulisic roams as a false 10 behind Balogun, with Weah stretching the right flank. I verified the full tournament squad through the US Soccer official release.
Turkey Projected Starting XI
| Position | Player |
|---|---|
|
Goalkeeper (GK) |
Uğurcan Çakır |
|
Defenders (back 4) |
Zeki Çelik, Merih Demiral, Abdülkerim Bardakcı, Ferdi Kadıoğlu |
|
Midfielders |
Hakan Çalhanoğlu, İsmail Yüksek |
|
Forwards |
Kerem Aktürkoğlu, Arda Güler, Kenan Yıldız, Barış Alper Yılmaz |
|
Formation |
4-2-3-1 |
|
Unavailable |
Arda Güler (fitness doubt), Hakan Çalhanoğlu (fitness doubt) |
|
Head coach |
Vincenzo Montella |
The projected XI assumes Guler and Calhanoglu are available, but both carry genuine question marks. Montella’s 4-2-3-1 relies on those two as the creative hub. Without them at full tilt, Yildiz and Akturkoglu carry the burden on the flanks.
Suspensions and Injuries
- USA: Cardoso (out), Agyemang (out), Klinsmann (out), Carter-Vickers (doubtful), Tessmann (doubtful), Tolkin (out), Sullivan (out)
- Turkey: Arda Guler (fitness doubt), Hakan Calhanoglu (fitness doubt)
The USA’s casualty list is longer, with Cardoso’s ankle surgery stripping midfield depth. But Turkey’s two fitness doubts matter more. Both returned to training in late May but neither has logged competitive minutes since mid-April. That’s the variable shaping this USA vs Turkey prediction.
Key Matchups in USA vs Turkey
Three individual battles will go a long way toward deciding this one.
Arda Guler vs Tyler Adams
This is the matchup that could decide everything. Guler’s left foot is a weapon, with elite vision and the ability to unlock packed defenses. Adams is the USMNT’s most intelligent midfielder, who captained the side at the 2022 World Cup. If Adams cuts off Guler’s supply lines, Turkey lose their creative heartbeat. If Guler finds pockets, things get dangerous fast.
Christian Pulisic vs Ferdi Kadioglu
Pulisic will drift as a free 10 in the 3-4-3. Kadioglu, Brighton’s attack-minded left-back, makes this duel run both ways. When Turkey have the ball, Kadioglu’s overlapping runs stretch the USA’s right side. When the USMNT are in possession, Pulisic targets the space Kadioglu vacates.
Folarin Balogun vs Merih Demiral
Balogun brings pace, work rate and a striker’s nose for goal. Demiral is a throwback center-back: aggressive, physical, dominant in the air from his Champions League days. If Balogun drops deep and spins into the channels, he’ll create problems. If Demiral pins him to the last line, it’s a long night for the US attack.
Set pieces
Demiral and Bardakci are Turkey’s main aerial targets from corners. Pochettino brought in dedicated set-piece coaching after the 2024 Copa America and the USA have looked sharper from dead balls since. Turkey pick up bookings at an above-average clip, so corners and cards markets are worth watching for bet builder legs.
Where to Bet on USMNT vs Turkey
These are the licensed US sportsbooks covering this Group D finale.
FanDuel
21+ in OH. $5 min deposit req. Bonus Bets non-withdrawable, expire 7 days after receipt. T&Cs apply. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
FanDuel already had the 1X2, double chance and BTTS markets live when I pulled it up on May 26. The SGP builder supports multi-leg combinations, and USA vs Turkey market depth is the broadest I found at this stage.
BetMGM
21+ in OH. $10 min bet req. Bonus Bets non-withdrawable, expire 7 days after receipt. T&Cs apply. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
BetMGM’s parlay editing tool lets you swap a leg mid-match without scrapping the slip. I ran their app during the March window and the live pricing held steady. BetMGM USA vs Turkey lines weren’t posted as of May 26 but coverage is typically comprehensive once markets open.
DraftKings
21+ in OH. $5 min bet req. New Customer Offer Token expires 7 days after offer expiration. T&Cs apply. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
DraftKings USA vs Turkey markets should go live roughly 2 weeks before kickoff. Their bet builder supports up to 6 legs per match, making it a good fit for multi-market plays around this game. The World Cup section was already structured on the app when I looked.
Caesars
21+ in OH. $1 min bet req. Profit Boosts expire 14 days after receipt. T&Cs apply. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Caesars offers clean coverage on international soccer, with 1X2, Asian handicap, goal totals and player props for Group D. The USA vs Turkey page was live but awaiting final odds as of publication.
USMNT vs Turkey Bet Builder
| Leg 1, Match Result | USA to win |
| Leg 2, Goal market | BTTS Yes (both teams to score: Yes) |
| Leg 3, Player prop | Balogun anytime goalscorer |
| Combined odds | ~+500 (verify on FanDuel bet builder) |
| Rationale | Turkey’s fitness concerns limit their ability to dominate possession, but their pace in transition all but guarantees a goal. Balogun’s movement behind Demiral makes him the most likely USMNT scorer. A 2-1 USA win with Balogun on the scoresheet is how I see this playing out. |
Final Pick, Will USA Beat Turkey?
- Final prediction: USA 2-1 Turkey
- Confidence level: Lean
- Best bet: USA win at +140 + BTTS Yes at -128 (FanDuel)
It’s a difficult choice. Turkey can beat anybody when it’s “their day,” but their “day” comes when both Guler and Calhanoglu play at their best, and I doubt we’ll be seeing that on the day of the match. Both players suffered an April injury and haven’t played enough matches yet. It’s a concern regarding the USMNT defense, and I fully expect Turkey to score. But Pochettino’s side create enough going forward to outscore them, especially with 70,000 behind them at SoFi. I see great potential in backing USA Win / BTTS Yes with odds around +500 via the bet builder. Our predictions are based on recent form (30%), head-to-head (20%), home factor (20%), and squad fitness (30%). According to these factors, USA will get the upper hand over Turkey. Thus, USA Win +140, and BTTS Yes -128 is what we recommend. For the adjacent Group D fixture, check our USA vs Australia prediction.
Responsible Gambling
Betting on the 2026 World Cup should always be an enjoyable experience. If you or someone you know is struggling with problem gambling, free and confidential support is available 24/7 through the National Council on Problem Gambling at 1-800-GAMBLER. You can also visit your state gaming control board for responsible gambling resources and self-exclusion options. Set deposit limits, time limits, and wager limits before you play, and never bet more than you can afford to lose. Must be 21+ and physically located in a legal US sports betting state to place wagers.
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USA vs Turkey FAQ
Who will win USA vs Turkey?
The USMNT are slight favorites thanks to home advantage and Turkey’s fitness doubts around Guler and Calhanoglu. Our USA vs Turkey prediction is a 2-1 win for the hosts in a competitive, open game.
What is the prediction for USA vs Turkey?
USA 2-1 Turkey. Pochettino’s 3-4-3 should create enough chances to outscore a talented but not fully fit Turkish side. Both teams will find the net based on the defensive vulnerabilities on each side.
What are the best bets for USA vs Turkey?
My top 3 picks are USA win at +140 on FanDuel, BTTS Yes at -128, and Over 1.5 goals at -310. All three point to a competitive match with goals at both ends.
What are the best USA vs Turkey odds?
FanDuel has the USA moneyline at +140 as of May 26. BetMGM, DraftKings and Caesars haven’t published their lines yet. Shop all four books once they go live. Must be 21+ to wager.
What is the USA vs Turkey head-to-head record?
It’s dead level across 5 meetings: 2 wins each and 1 draw. Turkey won the most recent clash 2-1 in a June 2025 friendly in Connecticut, overturning an early McGlynn goal with strikes from Guler and Akturkoglu.
When is USA vs Turkey being played?
Thursday, June 25, 2026 at 10:00 PM ET / 7:00 PM PT. It’s the Matchday 3 Group D decider at the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
Where is USA vs Turkey being played?
SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles, California. It’s one of the flagship venues for the 2026 tournament and also hosts the USA’s opening group match.
What channel is USA vs Turkey on?
FOX carries it in English, Telemundo in Spanish. The FOX One app streams all 104 World Cup matches for free. Cord-cutting options include FuboTV, DirecTV Stream, Sling Blue and Hulu+Live TV.
Will both teams score in USA vs Turkey?
I think so. The USMNT shipped 7 goals in 2 March friendlies, and Turkey’s counter-attacking weapons are sharp enough to find the net even below full fitness. BTTS Yes at -128 is Pick 2 in this prediction.
Where can I bet on USA vs Turkey?
Any state-licensed US sportsbook will carry this fixture. FanDuel, BetMGM, DraftKings and Caesars all offer World Cup markets. Must be 21+ and in a legal sports betting state to place wagers.
