Predicted Medal Tables

There are numerous systems for ranking the success of countries at the Olympics, usually based on actual results at each Olympic Games. Described below is the method of ranking countries based on prediction modelling of expected results.

There are two categories of predictions. One is from scholars using economics and a range of factors to base their predictions. The other is predictions based on competition results leading up to the Olympics, such as those by the Olympic Medal Tracker from USAToday and 'Sports Myriad', which predicts the specific winners of each event.

Did everyone predict the US would top the medal tally in 2012? See who was predicted to win in 2012.

How Good are the Predictions?

Having predictions from previous Olympic Games leads to another method of ranking - you can rank countries based on actual results compared to that predicted. These would not necessarily be the most success countries, but those that performed much better than expected. We have used the prediction results of those listed below to compare to the actual lists from the last few Olympics.

See the predictions and how they compared to actual results for the 2000, 2004, 2008 Olympic Games. Comparisons for 2012 will be coming soon.

olympic posterMedal Prediction Models

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