2016 Predicted Medal Tally

There are quite a few analysis models that provide a prediction of the final medal tally for the 2016 Olympic Games. Here are the top 10 positions from each prediction model that we have found. The method used to predict the winners varies, some are from scholars using economics and a range of factors to base their prediction, while others use recent competition results and possibly a bit of gut feeling. You can see below how close the predictions were. Now that the actual results are known, the accuracy of the prediction equations can be assessed. See our analysis of these predictions.

There are two sets of tables, one for predictions of the total gold medals won, the other for predicted total medals won. With the banning of many Russian athletes in the lead up to the Olympics, when the prediction is made can influence its accuracy. See more details about each of these prediction models here.

Predicted Gold Medal Tally

These predictions generally have the USA leading the final gold medal tally as they did in 2012, followed by China. The expected medal haul of Russia dropped dramatically in the lead up to the Games due to many of their athletes being banned. Any predictions done before that time will probably have overestimated their expected result. The timeline of Gracenote predictions clearly show this.

Table of predicted top 10 countries with TOTAL GOLD medals won (predictions based on only results)

rank Actual Results Gracenote
(3 Aug 2016)
Cazeneuve-SI
(29 July 2016)
Barra
(Dec 2015)
ATASS Sports
(5 Aug 2016)
Nielsen
(1 Aug 2016)
Olympic medals predictions
(4 Aug 2016)
AOC Benchmark
(Dec 2014)
1 USA (46) USA (38) USA (45) USA (35) USA (42) USA (36) USA (50) China (39)
2 UK (27) China (29) China (45) China (32) China (32) China (31) China (30) USA (35)
3 China (26) UK (18) Australia (20) Russia (23) UK (18) Russia (19) Russia (19) Russia (25)
4 Russia (19) Germany (16) UK (16) Japan (18) Australia (17) UK (19) UK (18) Japan (18)
5 Germany (17) Australia (16) France (15) UK (16) France (14) Japan (19) Germany (17) UK (15)
6 Japan (12) Russia (15) Russia (14) Germany (16) Germany (13) France (16) France (17) France (15)
7 France (10) Japan (14) Germany (14) Australia (14) Russia (13) Australia (14) Japan (14) Australia (13)
8 South Korea (19) France (13) Japan (13) France (14) Japan (12) Germany (13) Australia (11) Germany (13)
9 Italy (8) South Korea (10) South Korea (10) South Korea (12) South Korea (9) South Korea (11) New Zealand (10) -
10 Australia (8) Brazil (8) New Zealand (7) New Zealand (10) New Zealand (8) New Zealand (9) South Korea (7) -

Table of predicted top 10 countries with TOTAL GOLD medals won (predictions based on factors other than just results)

rank Actual Results Goldman Sachs
(July 2016)
WSJ
(28 July 2016)
Gonzales (Tuck School) Kuper et al.
1 USA (46) USA (45) USA (42) USA (48) USA (35)
2 UK (27) China (36) China (35) China (38) China (35)
3 China (26) UK (23) Australia (17) UK (30) Russia (24)
4 Russia (19) Russia (14) UK (16) Russia (18) UK (17)
5 Germany (17) South Korea (13) Russia (16) Germany (13) Germany (12)
6 Japan (12) Germany (12) Germany (15) South Korea (12) Japan (12)
7 France (10) France (11) France (12) France (11) Australia (11)
8 South Korea (19) Italy (8) Japan (11) Italy (8) France (11)
9 Italy (8) Hungary (8) South Korea (10) Japan (8) South Korea (10)
10 Australia (8) Japan (7) Netherlands (9) Australia (7) Italy (9)

Predicted Total Medal Tally

As per the total gold medal lists, the USA is mostly predicted to win the most medals overall.

Table of predicted top 10 countries with TOTAL MEDALS won (predictions based on only results)

rank Actual Results Gracenote
(3 Aug 2016)
Cazeneuve-SI
(29 July 2016)
Olympic medals predictions
(4 Aug 2016)
Barra
(Oct 2014)
ATASS Sports
(5 Aug 2016)
Nielsen
(1 Aug 2016)
AOC Benchmark
(Dec 2014)
1 USA (121) USA (88) USA (118) USA (104) China (94) USA (105) USA (97) China (79)
2 China (70) China (71) China (85) China (66) USA (82) China (75) China (83) USA (66)
3 UK (67) UK (56) Russia (59) Russia (55) Russia (70) UK (55) Russia (53) Russia (60)
4 Russia (56) Germany (51) UK (53) UK (53) UK (52) Australia (48) UK (51) Germany (45)
5 Germany (42) France (47) Australia (50) Germany (52) Germany (48) Germany (42) Germany (49) UK (45)
6 France (42) Russia (42) Germany (47) Japan (43) Japan (39) France (41) France (42) Australia (42)
7 Japan (41) Australia (41) France (39) France (41) Australia (39) Russia (38) Japan (39) Japan (41)
8 Australia (29) Japan (36) Japan (34) Australia (39) France (39) Japan (33) Australia (39) France (40)
9 Italy (28) Netherlands (28) South Korea (31) Netherlands (30) South Korea (23) Netherlands (26) Netherlands (31) -
10 Canada (22) South Korea (25) Netherlands (22) New Zealand (24) New Zealand (18) South Korea (25) South Korea (26) -

Table of predicted top 10 countries with TOTAL MEDALS won (predictions based on factors other than just results)

rank Actual Results WSJ
(28 July 2016)
Goldman Sachs
(July 2016)
PwC
(June 2016)
Gonzales (Tuck School) Noland & Stahler Forrest et al. Bredtmann et al.
(Aug 2016)
Kuper et al.
1 USA (121) USA (101) USA (106) USA (108) USA (105) USA USA (99) USA (100) USA (102)
2 China (70) China (82) China (89) China (98) China (89) China China (90) China (86) Russia (83)
3 UK (67) UK (52) UK (59) Russia (70) UK (67) Russia UK (51) UK (64) China (74)
4 Russia (56) Russia (51) Russia (58) UK (52) Russia (62) UK Russia (42) Russia (53) UK (43)
5 Germany (42) Germany (51) Germany (46) Germany (40) Germany (48) Germany Australia (37) Japan (47) Germany (41)
6 France (42) Australia (48) Japan (39) Australia (35) Japan (43) Japan Germany (36) Germany (43) Australia (41)
7 Japan (41) France (43) France (36) France (34) Australia (35) France Japan (31) Australia (34) France (37)
8 Australia (29) Japan (35) Australia (35) Japan (33) France (35) Australia France (30) Brazil (34) Japan (34)
9 Italy (28) Netherlands (29) South Korea (28) South Korea (27) Italy (29) Brazil Italy (26) France (34) South Korea (31)
10 Canada (22) South Korea (24) Italy (28) Italy (26) South Korea (28) South Korea Netherlands & Spain (20) Italy & South Korea (28) Italy (28)

References

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