2000 Predicted Medal Tally

We now know the final medal tally for the Sydney Games in 2000. Prior to the 2000 Games, there were some predictions of who would win the most medals. You can see below how good the predictions were. Now that the actual results are known, the accuracy of the prediction equations can be assessed.

In 2000, the leading country on the medal table at the end of the Olympics was the USA, as predicted, though Russia and China were closer than expected. See our analysis of the accuracy of this prediction.

Table of predicted top 10 countries with TOTAL GOLD medals won

Rank Country Actual Gold Medals Bernard (Tuck School) Prediction
1 USA 40 39
2 Russia 32 22
3 China 28 19
4 Australia 16 14
5 Germany 13 25
6 France 13 14
7 Italy 13 13
8 Netherlands 12 6
9 Cuba 11 6
10 Great Britain 11 6


Prediction modelling by Andrew B. Bernard of the Tuck School at Dartmouth. He used a forecasting model incorporating four factors: measures of available resources, population and per capita income, as well as the share of medals in the most recent Summer Olympics and a host effect. See source: Andrew B. Bernard.

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