Rio 2016 Predicted Medal Tally by Gracenote

Gracenote Sports (previously Infostrada) Virtual Medal Table (VMT) is a popular Olympic Games medal predictor. This predictor uses an algorithm to rank athletes and teams in each Olympic event based on recent competition results, and is regularly updated leading up to the Games. We have decided to track the changes in the predictions in the lead up to the Rio Olympics, and to compare these to the actual medal tallies once the Games are completed. See how these predictions compare to other prediction models in 2016.

Predicted GOLD MEDAL Tally from Gracenote

All the listed predictions by Gracenote had the USA leading the final gold medal tally (as they did in 2012), followed by China. The graph shows the results of the three top sporting powerhouses; USA, China and Russia. These were originally the predicted top three places, though following suspensions of many Russian competitors, Russia dramatically dropped from third to sixth place in the final predictions released just prior to the start of the Olympic Games. In the final prediction, Great Britain (UK) were in third, up from 7th a year earlier. The table shows the top 10 predictions.

Predicted Gold Medal Tally from Gracenote

Table of Gracenote Medal Table predicted top 10 countries with TOTAL GOLD medals won

 

24 Mar 2015

(500 days to go)

4 Aug 2015

(12 months to go)

4 Nov 2015

(9 months to go)

6 Jan 2016

(7 months to go)

1 Mar 2016

(5 months to go)

27 April 2016

(100 days to go)

7 June 2016

(50 days to go)

3 Aug 2016

(1 day to go)

1 USA (47) USA (46) USA (40) USA (40) USA (39) USA (42) USA (41) USA (38)
2 China (28) China (31) China (32) China (35) China (32) China (31) China (31) China (29)
3 Russia (25) Russia (22) Russia (26) Russia (27) Russia (24) Russia (22) Russia (21) UK (18)
4 France (18) Germany (16) Germany (20) Germany (19) Australia (17) Australia (18) UK (17) Germany (16)
5 Germany (16) France (16) UK (17) UK (16) Germany (15) UK (17) Australia (17) Australia (16)
6 Australia (14) Australia (12) Australia (15) Australia (16) UK (14) Germany (15) Germany (15) Russia (15)
7 UK (10) UK (10) Japan (15) Japan (13) France (13) Japan (12) Japan (15) Japan (14)
8 Brazil (10) Japan (10) France (10) South Korea (12) South Korea (13) South Korea (12) France (12) France (13)
9 New Zealand (10) New Zealand (10) South Korea (10) France (10) Japan (12) France (10) South Korea (11) South Korea (10)
10 Hungary (10) Brazil (9) Brazil (8) Brazil (8) Brazil (11) Brazil (9) New Zealand (8) Brazil (8)

Predicted TOTAL MEDAL Tally from Gracenote

Although the predicted total number of medals won by the USA varied as the Olympic drew nearer, they were still predicted to top the medal tally. The graph shows the results of the three top predicted leading countries; USA, China and Russia previous year or so. As with the gold medal predictions, the suspension of Russia's athletes dropped them from third to sixth place in the final predictions released just prior to the start of the Olympic Games. The table shows the top 10 predictions.

Predicted TOTAL MEDAL Tally

Table of Gracenote Medal Table predicted top 10 countries with TOTAL MEDALS won

 

24 Mar 2015

(500 days to go)

4 Aug 2015

(12 months to go)

4 Nov 2015

(9 months to go)

6 Jan 2016

(7 months to go)

1 Mar 2016

(5 months to go)

27 April 2016

(100 days to go)

7 June 2016

(50 days to go)

3 Aug 2016

(1 day to go)

1 USA (97) USA (99) USA (93) USA (92) USA (95) USA (102) USA (93) USA (88)
2 China (76) Russia (75) China (88) China (84) China (81) China (78) China (80) China (71)
3 Russia (74) China (72) Russia (71) Russia (70) Russia (68) Russia (66) Russia (68) UK (56)
4 Germany (55) Germany (50) UK (48) Germany (53) Germany (52) UK (49) UK (49) Germany (51)
5 France (47) UK (48) Germany (47) UK (48) UK (47) Germany (47) France (49) France (47)
6 UK (45) France (43) France (42) Australia (42) Australia (45) France (42) Germany (48) Russia (42)
7 Australia (42) Australia (42) Australia (39) France (41) France (40) Australia (41) Australia (42) Australia (41)
8 Japan (42) Japan (45) Japan (37) Japan (35) Japan (39) Japan (39) Japan (36) Japan (36)
9 Brazil (27) Italy (28) South Korea (24) South Korea (23) South Korea (25) Netherlands (28) Netherlands (29) Netherlands (28)
10 Italy (25) Brazil (25) New Zealand (23) Brazil (19) Brazil (24) South Korea (27) South Korea (24) South Korea (25)

Related Pages