2004 Predicted Medal Tally

We now know the final medal tally for the Athens Games in 2004. Prior to the 2004 Games, there were some predictions of who would win the most medals. You can see below how well the predictions were. Now that the actual results are known, the accuracy of the predictions can be assessed. See our analysis of this prediction.

In 2004, the leading country on the medal table at the end of the Olympics was the USA, as predicted by all prediction models. Both gold medal predictions very closely predicted the US tally of 36, with both models predicting 37 golds.

Table of predicted top 10 countries with TOTAL GOLD medals won

final Rank Country Actual Gold Medals Bernard (Tuck School) Johnson & Ali
1 United States 36 37 37
2 China 32 27 15
3 Russia 28 29 35
4 Australia 17 14 5
5 Japan 16 6 5
6 Germany 13 13 20
7 France 11 12 7
8 Italy 10 12 9
9 South Korea 9 7 7
10 Great Britain 9 10 5

Table of predicted top 10 countries with TOTAL MEDALS won

final Rank Country Actual Total Medals Johnson & Ali Bredtmann et al.
1 United States 101 103 84
2 Russia 90 94 84
3 China 63 39 76
4 Australia 50 26 53
5 Germany 49 66 49
6 Japan 37 18 20
7 France 33 26 36
8 Italy 32 29 33
9 South Korea 30 29 27
10 Great Britain 30 27 26

Notes: See more details of the prediction models.

References

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