2008 Predicted Medal Tally

We now know the final medal tally for the Olympics Games in 2008. Leading up to the 2008 Olympics, there were some predictions of who would win the most gold medals. You can see below how well the predictions were. Now that the actual results are known, the accuracy of the prediction equations can be assessed. See our analysis of these predictions.

Table of predicted top 10 countries with TOTAL GOLD medals won

China was successfully predicted to win the most gold medals, though they won many more than predicted by both Bernard and Johnson. They both predicted correctly the top three countries in order.

final rank Country ACTUAL Golds Bernard (Tuck School) Prediction Johnson Prediction
1 China 51 37 40
2 United States 36 36 34
3 Russia 23 25 26
4 Great Britain 19 10 12
5 Germany 16 14 19
6 Australia 14 16 12
7 South Korea 13 9 9
8 Japan 9 17 9
9 Italy 8 10 10
10 France 7 12 11

Table of predicted top 10 countries with TOTAL MEDALS won

Both the Johnson and Bredtmann model accurately predicted that the USA would win the most total medals, though they both incorrectly predicted Russia would beat China for second. The country in the top 10 achieving above expectations was Great Britain who won many more than predicted.

final rank Country ACTUAL total medals Johnson Prediction Bredtmann et al. prediction Forrest et al.
1 USA 110 98 92 102
2 China 100 79 74 90
3 Russia 73 84 88 74
4 Great Britain 47 36 37 44
5 Australia 46 42 46 39
6 Germany 41 53 33 43
7 France 41 36 45 32
8 South Korea 31 29 30 25
9 Italy 27 26 31 28
10 Ukraine 27 NR 25 21

Notes

There was no prediction for Ukraine by Johnson due to limited historical data. See more details of the prediction models.

References

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