Analysis of 2004 Predicted Medal Tally

There are several predictions that we found for the medal tally at the 2004 Olympic Games. Now that the actual results are known, the accuracy of the predictions can be assessed. We are using our own analysis method to calculate a single percent accuracy score. It basically calculates the average percentage difference between their prediction and the actual results for the final top 5 results.

In 2004, the leading country on the medal table at the end of the Olympics was the USA, as predicted by all prediction models. However, some were more accurate overall than others.

Based on my analysis method, the prediction of the top 5 by Bernard was more accurate. Bernard achieved a percentage accuracy score of 80% (average percentage difference of 20%) and Johnson & Ali scored 56%.

TABLE of top 5 countries with predicted TOTAL GOLD medals won (showing percentage difference)

final Rank Country Actual Gold Medals Bernard Johnson & Ali
1 United States 36 37 (+3%) 37 (+3%)
2 China 32 27 (-16%) 15 (-53%)
3 Russia 28 29 (+4%) 35 (+25%)
4 Australia 17 14 (-18%) 5 (-71%)
5 Japan 16 6 (-63%) 5 (-69%)
    percent accuracy score 80% 56%

For the total medal predictions, based on my analysis method, the prediction of the top 5 countries by Bredtmann et al. was more accurate. Bredtmann et al. achieved a percentage accuracy score of 90% (average percentage difference of 10%) and Johnson & Ali scored 75%.

TABLE of top 5 countries with predicted TOTAL MEDALS won (showing percentage difference)

final Rank Country Actual Total Medals Johnson & Ali Bredtmann et al.
1 United States 101 103 (+2%) 84 (-17%)
2 Russia 90 94 (+4%) 84 (-7%)
3 China 63 39 (-38%) 76 (+21%)
4 Australia 50 26 (-48%) 53 (+6%)
5 Germany 49 66 (+35%) 49 (0%)
    percent accuracy score 75% 90%

See the top 10 predictions for Athens 2004 for details about the source of each prediction. See also more details of the prediction models.

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