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2012 Predicted Medal Tally
The medal tally for the Olympics Games in 2012 is now complete. Leading up to these Games, there were many predictions of which country would win the most medals, using various prediction models. Now the actual results are known, it will be possible to rank countries based on actual results compared to that predicted, which is another way of ranking the success of nations at the Olympics. Stay tuned for that analysis.
Predicted Gold Medal Tally
There are quite a few analysis models that provided a prediction of the final medal tally for the 2012 Olympic Games. Here are the top 10 positions from each prediction model that we have found.
Most of these predictions had the US leading the final gold medal tally, with China next, followed by Russia. The benchmark analysis was based on results from major international events held in 2010 and did not necesarrily reflect the most current performances. The number of predicted gold medals varied though, and the order for the countries varied with each system.
Medal Tracker Prediction |
Sports Myriad Prediction | Williams Prediction | Johnson Prediction | Benchmark Analysis | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| rank | Country (golds) | Country (golds) | Country (golds) | Country (golds) | Country |
| 1 | USA (36) | USA (55) | China (48) | USA (34) | Russia |
| 2 | China (32) | China (35) | USA (35) | China (33) | USA |
| 3 | Russia (21) | Great Britain (32) | Great Britain (25) | Russia (25) | China |
| 4 | Great Britain (19) | Russia (26) | Russia (21) | Great Britain (20) | Great Britain |
| 5 | Germany (17) | Japan (14) | Germany (15) | Germany (19) | Germany |
| 6 | Italy (12) | Australia (13) | Australia (12) | France (11) | France |
| 7 | Australia (11) | Germany (10) | South Korea (11) | Italy (10) | Japan |
| 8 | Japan (10) | Italy (8) | Japan (9) | Japan (9) | Australia |
| 9 | France (10) | South Korea (8) | Italy (8) | Australia (8) | Italy |
| 10 | South Korea (10) | France (7) | France (7) | Hungary (7) | Korea |
Predicted Total Medal Tally
All of these medal tally predictions below were based on scientific analysis, though with some different factors. The Busse prediction was based solely on population and GDP, the others included additional data such as political structure, climate, a host nation advantage, and previous Olympic results. As with the gold medal tally predictions above, the USA was tipped (correctly) to finish on top with China second. The Price Waterhouse Coopers (PwC) and Williams predictions were very similar.
PwC Prediction |
Williams Prediction | Johnson Prediction | Busse Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| rank | Country (total medals) |
Country (total medals) |
Country (total medals) |
Country (total medals) |
| 1 | USA (113) | USA (103) | US (99) | USA (51) |
| 2 | China (87) | China (94) | Russia (82) | China (45) |
| 3 | Russia (68) | Russia (67) | China (67) | Japan (41) |
| 4 | Great Britain (54) | Great Britain (62) | Germany (60) | Germany (36) |
| 5 | Australia (42) | Australia (42) | GB (45) | India (34) |
| 6 | Germany (41) | Germany (39) | Australia (38) | France (33) |
| 7 | France (37) | France (39) | France (37) | Brazil (33) |
| 8 | Japan (28) | South Korea (29) | Italy (31) | Great Britain (32) |
| 9 | Italy (27) | Italy (26) | Japan (31) | Italy (31) |
| 10 | South Korea (27) | Japan (25) | Sth Korea (29) | Russia (30) |
Notes
See more details of the prediction models, and links to the complete lists. In general, the Sports Myriad, the USAToday Olympic medal tracker and Benchmark analysis are based on actual recent competition results, while the predictions of Johnson, Williams, PwC and Busse are based on economic and population data as well as other factors. The medal tracker data is from July 25, just prior to the start of the Games. The Sports Myriad predictions are those updated the week before the games started.
Related Pages
- about Predicted Medal Tables
- My 2012 Gold Medal Table Prediction
- more Medal Tallies from each Olympic year
- See more about the Olympics Games in 2012
Old Comments
- Busse Prediction - 34 medals for India? Really? From 83 athletes and only having ever won a total of 3 medals at any previous Olympics. This is their best so far and they've managed to reach 5. Quite a bizarre prediction that I guess was wildly based on the Commonwealth Games. (from Jim, 11 Aug 2012).
- reply: it is because the Busse prediction is based solely on population and GDP, and India has quite a big population apparently. (from Rob, Topend Sports)
- All these predictions are so wrong it hurts. As of 9 august, Iran has 4 golds, and should have had 5, but the disc guy stepped over the line. tough. The US is STILL trailing China, but could still very well win it, cos of the basketball, and womens volleyball, and decathlon and boxing. China might get another diving gold. I predict USA 39 and China 37 golds. If they win the boxing, it could be even 38! so the usa wins by BRONZE!! too funny. (from Gwen Killerby, 9 Aug 2012)
- Predictably UScentric analysis and comment. Massively under predicts Team GB's performance which has been predicted here in the UK for months..although still probably going to exceed this total of 48 medals (already exceeded predicted gold) (from Chris Brennan, Aug 2012)
- UScentric? The models' average prediction is that the US would have 91.5 total medals, and 40 gold. They currently have 94 total medals and 41 gold â a total underestimation of 4.5 medals. The average prediction for GB is 52 total medals and 24 gold. They currently have 57 total medals and 25 gold â a total underestimation of 6 medals. Hardly a UScentric, massive underestimation of GB as opposed to US. (from Kiwi, 11 Aug 2012)
- Doesn't really work does it!! (from Keith, Aug 2012)
- Well ... regardless Beijing was a real down for Hungary I think the whole world underestimate it. Hungary is a small country but one of the greatest ever Olympic nation in over all and definitely the most successful nation in the summer Olympics counting per capita or per GDP. After one week Hungary is the 10th on the medal table with 4 golds and there are at least 5-6 more Golds ahead to win this week (flat water canoeing, water polo) (from gmihaly, 8 Aug 2012)
- Totally without foundation. You just have to look at the current results table. (from Fred Astair, Aug 2012)
- Looks like this model is seemingly accurate as we are into the 2nd week of competition. BTW Syed ... take note, Iran only has 1 gold and a bronze thus far. I'd be astounded to see them make up that ground and put up 10 golds. I just don't see it happening. I've been impressed by the UK and I really see the US pulling ahead in the medal count with all of the track and field events coming up to the finals and oh yeah ... there is a certain Basketball team that is only missing Michael Jordan to handle every team like it did Nigeria. Could you imagine if this team had a youthful Michael Jordan on it? Well, back to the fields of play. I can't wait to comment at the end of this spectacular Olympic competition. Kudos to London for putting on a remarkable show! (from Brett, 6 Aug 2012)
- Why will America go so far clear? Why will it be so different to last year? (from bob, Aug 2012)
- hehe south korea hehe
- My prediction: a close battle for first (both in terms of golds and total medals) between China and the USA, Russia 3rd, and after that it gets too unpredictable. GB should do well on total medals, partly because they've got so many athletes in the games, plus the home support advantage, but maybe less well on golds; France, Germany, Italy, Japan, South Korea and Australia should also do well in general (and I wouldn't be at all surprised if those were the final top ten nations in the medals table, in one order or another). Of course, I'm posting this on the 2nd of August, so we've already seen how some of it comes out ... (from Paddy)
- How come Kenya is missing in these predictions, and yet it is almost certain that it will be among the top 10, when the total gold haul is taken into account? (from Misheck Kirimi, July 2012)
- China is going to have an insane metal count this year. Possibly doubling the States. (from doodlefinger, July 2012)
- china must 1st in medal tally, 2nd U.S.A., 3rd Russia (from niten rajbhandari, July 2012)
- We are using your prediction model results for a family Olympic challenge. we will each take one of the top 5 estimated team medal winners as our host country (picked from a pirate hat-don't ask) and track the events. each gold will get 3 points, silver, 2 points, and bronze 1. we've already had fun investigating about the over-all top medal winners for previous games! and now that we have the top 5 expected winners for 2012, we're ready to compete! GO USA! (from Sue Vessicchio, July 2012)
- How about Mexico? What is your London 2012 prediction for my country? Mine is 2 golds and a total of 6 (from Enrique Garay, July 2012)
- I don't know why Japan is predicted to be ahead of South Korea by Gold medal count. (are the guys who made prediction ignorant of all the preceding Olympic games medal count stat?) The last 8 or 10 Olympic games (including the winter games) show South Korea have been, except 2004 Summer Olympic, higher in rank than Japan by GOLD MEDAL attainment as well as overall medals count. Why in the world S.Korea has lower prospect than Japan by the medal count for this year's game when the last half dozen games point to S.Korea as the higher achiever than Japan? (from John, 28 July 2012)
- That is because Japan has 5 times larger land and population..and 3 times the economy ;) Things like that are considered in the math prediction models. (from kevin, July 2012)
- it will be France instead of Hungary (from aaa, July 2012)
- Australia is gonna win CMON!
- Why are all countries not included? The Olympics are supposed to embrace the whole world. (from michael clare, July 2012) - reply: see original sources for the complete list, this is just a sample to compare the systems.
- Pathetic, to say the least, what was the criteria to reach to arrive at those figures, if it was number of WORLD CHAMPIONS, then IRAN has twelve of them, you should have given them at least 10 golds. (from syed zaffer, May 2012)
- Iran will NOT win 10 gold medals. Period. (from Ivan, July 2012)
- Iran will be lucky to get 1 or 2 gold medals (from steve jacobs, July 2012)
