2012 Predicted Medal Tally

The medal tally for the Olympics Games in 2012 is now complete. Leading up to these Games, there were many predictions of which country would win the most medals. For details about the methods of each prediction, you can see more on our page about prediction models. You can see below how close the predictions were. Now that the actual results are known, the accuracy of the prediction equations can be assessed. See our analysis of these predictions.

Predicted Gold Medal Tally

Below are the top 10 positions from each prediction model that we have found. We have grouped them into predictions based on recent results, and other predictions that use a variety of other factors.

The majority of the predictions had the USA leading the final gold medal tally, with China second, followed by either Russia or Great Britain. All predicted that the top four would include these countries. The benchmark analysis was based on results from major international events held in 2010 and did not necessarily reflect the most current performances. Even though the order may have been correct for some, the number of predicted gold medals varied quite a bit.

Table of predicted top 10 countries with total gold medals won (predictions based on only results)

rank Actual Results Infostrada Sports (now Gracenote) Sports Myriad Luciano Barra Brian Cazeneuve Benchmark Analysis
1 USA (46) USA (36) USA (55) China (43) China (42) Russia
2 China (38) China (32) China (35) USA (35) USA (42) USA
3 Great Britain (29) Russia (21) Great Britain (32) Russia (30) Russia (28) China
4 Russia (24) Great Britain (19) Russia (26) Great Britain (19) Great Britain (23) Great Britain
5 South Korea (13) Germany (17) Japan (14) Germany  (17) Australia (16) Germany
6 Germany (11) Italy (12) Australia (13) Japan  (14) Japan (12) France
7 France (11) Australia (11) Germany (10) France  (13) Germany (11) Japan
8 Italy (8) Japan (10) Italy (8) Australia  (13) France (8) Australia
9 Hungary (8) France (10) South Korea (8) Italy  (12) South Korea (8) Italy
10 Australia (7) South Korea (10) France (7) New Zealand (8) Italy (7) Korea

Table of predicted top 10 countries with total gold medals won (predictions based on factors other than just results)

rank Actual Results Goldman Sachs Wall Street Journal Williams Johnson
1 USA (46) USA (37) USA (40) China (48) USA (34)
2 China (38) China (33) China (38) USA (35) China (33)
3 Great Britain (29) Great Britain (30) Russia (29) Great Britain (25) Russia (25)
4 Russia (24) Russia (25) Great Britain (22) Russia (21) Great Britain (20)
5 South Korea (13) Australia (15) Germany (16) Germany (15) Germany (19)
6 Germany (11) France (14) Australia (13) Australia (12) France (11)
7 France (11) Germany (14) Japan (13) South Korea (11) Italy (10)
8 Italy (8) South Korea (10) France (9) Japan (9) Japan (9)
9 Hungary (8) Italy (10) Italy (9) Italy (8) Sth Korea (9)
10 Australia (7) Ukraine (9) Kenya (8) France (7) Australia (8)

Predicted Total Medal Tally

These predictions of total medals were based on recent results, scientific analysis, or a combination of both - resulting in large variations between lists. The Busse prediction was based solely on population and GDP, others included additional data such as political structure, climate, a host nation advantage, and previous Olympic results. As with the gold medal tally predictions above, the USA was generally tipped (correctly) to finish on top with China second. The best predictions seem to be from Brian Cazeneuve (Sports Illustrated), Wall Street Journal and Goldman Sachs. See more detailed analysis.

Table of predicted top 10 countries with total medals won (predictions based on only results)

rank actual results Infostrada Sports (now Gracenote) Sports Myriad Luciano Barra Brian Cazeneuve (SI)
1 USA (104) China (85) USA (113) China  (100) USA  (99)
2 China (88) Russia (83) Russia (85) Russia (79) China  (97)
3 Russia (82) USA (82) China (84) USA  (78) Russia  (79)
4 Great Britain (65) Great Britain (67) Great Britain (78) Great Britain  (62) Great Britain  (65)
5 Germany (44) Germany (61) Germany (52) Germany  (56) Germany  (49)
6 Japan (38) Australia (39) Australia (43) France  (45) Australia  (40)
7 Australia (35) Italy (34) Japan (41) Japan   (41) Japan  (39)
8 France (34) Japan (34) France (34) Australia   (37) France  (32)
9 Sth Korea (28) France (32) Italy (30) Italy  (32) Italy  (25)
10 Italy (28) Sth Korea (24) Sth Korea (23) Sth Korea   (29) Sth Korea  (23)

Table of predicted top 10 countries with total medals won (predictions based on factors other than just results)

rank actual results PwC Wall Street Journal Goldman Sachs Williams Johnson Bredtmann et al. Busse
1 USA (104) USA (113) USA (108) USA (108) USA (103) USA (99) China (102) USA (51)
2 China (88) China (87) China (92) China (98) China (94) Russia (82) USA (100) China (45)
3 Russia (82) Russia (68) Russia (83) Russia (74) Russia (67) China (67) Russia (71) Japan (41)
4 Great Britain (65) Great Britain (54) Great Britain (66) Great Britain (65) Great Britain (62) Germany (60) Great Britain (57) Germany (36)
5 Germany (44) Australia (42) Germany (49) Australia (46) Australia (42) GB (45) Australia (43) India (34)
6 Japan (38) Germany (41) Australia (42) France (41) Germany (39) Australia (38) France (39) France (33)
7 Australia (35) France (37) Japan (39) Germany (41) France (39) France (37) Germany (36) Brazil (33)
8 France (34) Japan (28) France (31) South Korea (31) South Korea (29) Italy (31) South Korea (31) Great Britain (32)
9 South Korea (28) Italy (27) Italy (30) Italy (30) Italy (26) Japan (31) Cuba (29) Italy (31)
10 Italy (28) South Korea (27) South Korea (24) Ukraine (27) Japan (25) South Korea (29) Brazil (28) Russia (30)

Notes

See more details of the prediction models, and links to the complete lists. In general, the Sports Myriad, the USAToday Olympic medal tracker (Gracenote) and Benchmark analysis are based on actual recent competition results, while the predictions of Johnson, Williams, PwC and Busse are based on economic and population data as well as other factors. The medal tracker data is from July 25, just prior to the start of the Games. The Sports Myriad predictions are those updated the week before the games started.

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