2012 Predicted Medal Tally
The medal tally for the Olympics Games in 2012 is now complete. Leading up to these Games, there were many predictions of which country would win the most medals, using various prediction models. Now the actual results are known, it will be possible to rank countries based on actual results compared to that predicted, which is another way of ranking the success of nations at the Olympics. Stay tuned for that analysis.
Predicted Gold Medal Tally
There are quite a few analysis models that provided a prediction of the final medal tally for the 2012 Olympic Games. Here are the top 10 positions from each prediction model that we have found.
Most of these predictions had the US leading the final gold medal tally, with China next, followed by Russia. The benchmark analysis was based on results from major international events held in 2010 and did not necesarrily reflect the most current performances. The number of predicted gold medals varied though, and the order for the countries varied with each system.
Medal Tracker Prediction
|Sports Myriad Prediction||Williams Prediction||Johnson Prediction||Benchmark Analysis|
|rank||Country (golds)||Country (golds)||Country (golds)||Country (golds)||Country|
|1||USA (36)||USA (55)||China (48)||USA (34)||Russia|
|2||China (32)||China (35)||USA (35)||China (33)||USA|
|3||Russia (21)||Great Britain (32)||Great Britain (25)||Russia (25)||China|
|4||Great Britain (19)||Russia (26)||Russia (21)||Great Britain (20)||Great Britain|
|5||Germany (17)||Japan (14)||Germany (15)||Germany (19)||Germany|
|6||Italy (12)||Australia (13)||Australia (12)||France (11)||France|
|7||Australia (11)||Germany (10)||South Korea (11)||Italy (10)||Japan|
|8||Japan (10)||Italy (8)||Japan (9)||Japan (9)||Australia|
|9||France (10)||South Korea (8)||Italy (8)||Australia (8)||Italy|
|10||South Korea (10)||France (7)||France (7)||Hungary (7)||Korea|
Predicted Total Medal Tally
All of these medal tally predictions below were based on scientific analysis, though with some different factors. The Busse prediction was based solely on population and GDP, the others included additional data such as political structure, climate, a host nation advantage, and previous Olympic results. As with the gold medal tally predictions above, the USA was tipped (correctly) to finish on top with China second. The Price Waterhouse Coopers (PwC) and Williams predictions were very similar.
|Williams Prediction||Johnson Prediction||Busse Prediction|
|1||USA (113)||USA (103)||US (99)||USA (51)|
|2||China (87)||China (94)||Russia (82)||China (45)|
|3||Russia (68)||Russia (67)||China (67)||Japan (41)|
|4||Great Britain (54)||Great Britain (62)||Germany (60)||Germany (36)|
|5||Australia (42)||Australia (42)||GB (45)||India (34)|
|6||Germany (41)||Germany (39)||Australia (38)||France (33)|
|7||France (37)||France (39)||France (37)||Brazil (33)|
|8||Japan (28)||South Korea (29)||Italy (31)||Great Britain (32)|
|9||Italy (27)||Italy (26)||Japan (31)||Italy (31)|
|10||South Korea (27)||Japan (25)||Sth Korea (29)||Russia (30)|
See more details of the prediction models, and links to the complete lists. In general, the Sports Myriad, the USAToday Olympic medal tracker and Benchmark analysis are based on actual recent competition results, while the predictions of Johnson, Williams, PwC and Busse are based on economic and population data as well as other factors. The medal tracker data is from July 25, just prior to the start of the Games. The Sports Myriad predictions are those updated the week before the games started.
- about Predicted Medal Tables
- My 2012 Gold Medal Table Prediction
- more Medal Tallies from each Olympic year
- See more about the Olympics Games in 2012