# 2010 World Cup Predictions

Prior to the 2010 World Cup, there were predictions made about which team would win the tournament. The successful predictions of Paul the octopus was well known, the following more scientific apperoach also did quite well. The predictions listed below used various methods, such as analyzing bookmaker odds and using recent team results and rankings.

## 2010 Predictions

These predictions predicted the eventual winner Spain as the first or second favorite, though the other favorite team Brazil reached the quarter-final stages where they were knocked out by the eventual tournament runners-up, the Netherlands.

Predictions First Second Third Fourth
Leitner Spain (17.86%) Brazil (15.27%) England (11.95%) Argentina (10.8%)
Goldman Sachs Brazil (26.6%) Spain (15.%) Netherlands (14.9%) Germany (12.7%)
Elo Ratings Spain Brazil Netherlands England
FIFA ranking Brazil Spain Portugal Netherlands

actual result Spain Netherlands Germany Uruguay
Paul the Octopus makes a World Cup prediction in 2010

## Prediction References

• Leitner - Leitner, Christoph and Zeileis, Achim and Hornik, Kurt (2010) Forecasting the Winner of the FIFA World Cup 2010. Research Report Series / Department of Statistics and Mathematics, 100. Institute for Statistics and Mathematics, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business, Vienna. METHOD: based on analysis of winning odds from various bookmakers.
• Goldman Sachs - The 2010 predictions from Goldman Sachs were made in 2014 when assessing their prediction model. Their predictions for each match are based on a regression analysis that uses the entire history of mandatory international football matches (i.e., no friendlies) since 1960, then a stochastic model that generates a distribution of outcomes for each of the matches of the World Cup. The regression equation factors are the difference in the Elo rankings between the two teams, the number of goals scored by the team and opposition in recent games, and a factor for home games and games played in previous world cups. http://www.goldmansachs.com/our-thinking/archive/world-cup-sections/world-cup-book-2014-statistical-model.html
• Elo Ratings - The World Football Elo Ratings are based on the Elo rating system, developed by Dr. Arpad Elo. Ratings use the results of recent matches. The prediction lists the top four rated teams before the start of the tournament.
• FIFA Rankings - official FIFA team ranking data from just prior to the tournament in 26th May 2010.

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