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Predicted Medal Tables

There are numerous systems for ranking the success of countries at the Olympics, these methods are usually based on the actual results at each Olympic Games. For upcoming Olympics, it is an interesting exercise to predict the number of medals to be won. There are two main categories of predictions. One is from scholars using economics and a range of factors to base their predictions. The other is predictions based on competition results leading up to the Olympics.

Predictors for 2024

Here are those who made predictions for the 2024 Paris Olympics. You can see each of their predictions listed side by side.

Predictors from previous years

Here are those who made predictions for previous Olympic Games. olympic poster

How Good are the Predictions?

Having predictions from previous Olympic Games leads to another method of ranking - you can rank countries based on actual results compared to that predicted. These would not necessarily be the most success countries, but those that performed much better than expected. We have used the prediction results of those listed below to compare to the actual lists from the last few Olympics.

See the predictions and how they compared side by side with actual results for the 2000, 2004, 2008, 2012 and 2016 and 2021 Olympic Games. We are also doing an analysis of the prediction after each Olympic Games to see which methods or people are best at predicting the medal table.

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Olympics Extra

The next Olympics will be in Paris 2024, followed by the Winter edition in Milan-Cortina 2026. Check out the list of Olympic Games sports, as well as discontinued and demonstration sports.

Major Events Extra

The largest sporting event in the world is the Olympic Games, but there are many other multi-sport games. In terms of single sport events, nothing beats the FIFA World Cup. To see what's coming up, check out the calendar of major sporting events.

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