2008 Predicted Medal Tally
We now know the final medal tally for the Olympics Games in 2008. Leading up to the 2008 Olympics, there were some predictions of who would win the most gold medals. You can see below how well the predictions were. Now that the actual results are known, the accuracy of the prediction equations can be assessed. See our analysis of these predictions.
Table of predicted top 10 countries with TOTAL GOLD medals won
China was successfully predicted to win the most gold medals, though they won many more than predicted by both Bernard and Johnson. They both predicted correctly the top three countries in order.
| final rank | Country | ACTUAL Golds | Bernard (Tuck School) Prediction | Johnson Prediction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | China | 51 | 37 | 40 |
| 2 | United States | 36 | 36 | 34 |
| 3 | Russia | 23 | 25 | 26 |
| 4 | Great Britain | 19 | 10 | 12 |
| 5 | Germany | 16 | 14 | 19 |
| 6 | Australia | 14 | 16 | 12 |
| 7 | South Korea | 13 | 9 | 9 |
| 8 | Japan | 9 | 17 | 9 |
| 9 | Italy | 8 | 10 | 10 |
| 10 | France | 7 | 12 | 11 |
Table of predicted top 10 countries with TOTAL MEDALS won
Both the Johnson and Bredtmann model accurately predicted that the USA would win the most total medals, though they both incorrectly predicted Russia would beat China for second. The country in the top 10 achieving above expectations was Great Britain who won many more than predicted.
| final rank | Country | ACTUAL total medals | Johnson Prediction | Bredtmann et al. prediction | Forrest et al. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | USA | 110 | 98 | 92 | 102 |
| 2 | China | 100 | 79 | 74 | 90 |
| 3 | Russia | 73 | 84 | 88 | 74 |
| 4 | Great Britain | 47 | 36 | 37 | 44 |
| 5 | Australia | 46 | 42 | 46 | 39 |
| 6 | Germany | 41 | 53 | 33 | 43 |
| 7 | France | 41 | 36 | 45 | 32 |
| 8 | South Korea | 31 | 29 | 30 | 25 |
| 9 | Italy | 27 | 26 | 31 | 28 |
| 10 | Ukraine | 27 | NR | 25 | 21 |
Notes
There was no prediction for Ukraine by Johnson due to limited historical data. See more details of the prediction models.
References
- Andrew B. Bernard
- Daniel K.N. Johnson - press release "ECONOMIC MODEL SHOWS USA FIRST, BRITAIN FOURTH IN 2012 LONDON OLYMPIC GAMES"
- Julia Bredtmann, Carsten J. Crede, Sebastian Otten: source
- Forrest, D., Sanz, I., & Tena, J. D. (2010). Forecasting national team medal totals at the Summer Olympic Games. International Journal of Forecasting, 26(3), 576-588. doi:10.1016/j.ijforecast.2009.12.007
Related Pages
- About Predicted Medal Tables
- We have also a medal tally list from 2008.
- More Medal Tallies from each Olympic year
- See more about the Olympics Games in 2008
Any comments, suggestions, or corrections? Please let us know.
