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2024 Predicted Olympic Games Medal Tally - A Comparison of Models

Which nation will top the Olympic Games medal tally for Paris 2024? It is something that is often asked in the lead-up to the Olympics, and for some, there is quite a lot of thought that goes into it.

There are quite a few analysis models that provide a prediction of the final medal tally. Below are the top-10 positions from each of these prediction models that we have found. There are two sets of tables, one for predictions of the total gold medals won, the other for predicted total overall medals won.

The method used to predict the winners varies, some are from scholars using economics and a range of factors to base their prediction, while others use recent competition results and possibly a bit of gut feeling. After the Olympics when the actual results are known, we will assess the accuracy of these prediction equations.

We have found several predictions online of the expected medal tally for the 2024 Paris Olympic Games, though with competitors from Russia and Belarus being banned from some international competitions since February 2022, it it makes it difficult to assess the potential performances of athletes from these countries.

Where there has been more than one prediction over time (such as for Gracenote), only the most recent prediction is shown. See more details about each of these prediction models here.

Predicted Gold Medal Tally

No surprise here, USA and China are predicted to top the gold medal table by all prediction models. In the month before the Games are due to start, Gracenote are predicting that the USA will only get one more gold than China (though many more medals overall). Host country France is also predicted to rank higher than usual, as is often the case with the host country.

Table of predicted top 10 countries with TOTAL GOLD medals won

rank Gracenote
(June 2024)
Le Comptoir du Sport
(June 2024)

(9 Oct 2023)

1 USA (37) USA (42) USA (87)
2 China (36) China (40) China (71)
3 France (29) Great Britain (23) Japan (47)
4 Netherlands (17) Japan (20) Great Britain (46)
5 Great Britain (14) France (18) France (43)
6 Australia (13) Australia (15) Italy (35)
7 Japan (12) Netherlands (14) Netherlands (34)
8 Italy (11) Germany (11) Australia (30)
9 Germany (10) South Korea (8) Germany (30)
10 Sth Korea (8) Hungary (8) South Korea (23)

Predicted Total Medal Tally

No surprise here, USA and China were also predicted to top the table of the total medals won in most predictions. The predictions from Totallympics have many more medals than are available, and on their website it is not clear why. Nevertheless, the predicted ranking order is of interest.

Table of predicted top 10 countries with TOTAL MEDALS won

rank Gracenote
(June, 2024)
Le Comptoir du Sport
(June 2024)
(9 Oct 2023)
Nagpal et al.
1 USA (123) USA (122) USA (256) USA (109)
2 China (87) China (99) China (175) China (74)
3 Great Britain (62) France (63) Japan (149) Great Britain (67)
4 France (56) Great Britain (57) Great Britain (137) Russia (60)
5 Australia (48) Japan (50) France (132) France (55)
6 Japan (46) Australia (50) Italy (106) Japan (53)
7 Italy (46) Italy (37) Netherlands (98)  
8 Germany (37) Netherlands (33) Australia (95)  
9 Netherlands (34) Germany (28) Germany (88)  
10 Sth Korea (29) South Korea (25) Spain (57)  



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