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2024 Predicted Olympic Games Medal Tally

Which nation will top the Olympic Games medal tally for Paris 2024? There are quite a few analysis models that provide a prediction of the final medal tally.

Below are the top-10 positions from each prediction model that we have found. The method used to predict the winners varies, some are from scholars using economics and a range of factors to base their prediction, while others use recent competition results and possibly a bit of gut feeling. Once the actual results are known, we will assess the accuracy of the prediction equations.

We have found several predictions online of the expected medal tally for the 2024 Paris Olympic Games, though with competitors from Russia and Belarus being banned from some international competition since February 2022, it it makes it difficult to assess the potential performances of athletes from these countries.

Where there has been more than one prediction overtime (such as for Gracenote), only the most recent prediction is shown. There are two sets of tables, one for predictions of the total gold medals won, the other for predicted total overall medals won. See more details about each of these prediction models here.

Predicted Gold Medal Tally

No surprise here, USA and China are predicted to top the gold medal table by all prediction models. Host country France is also predicted to rank higher than usual, as is often the case with the host country.

Table of predicted top 10 countries with TOTAL GOLD medals won

rank Gracenote
(Jan, 2024)

(9 Oct 023)

1 United States (37)  USA (87)
2 China (35) China (71)
3 France (26)  Japan (47)
4 Great Britain (17)  Great Britain (46)
5 Japan (17)  France (43)
6 Netherlands (16)  Italy (35)
7 Australia (15)  Netherlands (34)
8 Italy (13)  Australia (30)
9 Germany (10)  Germany (30)
10 Brazil (9) South Korea (23)

Predicted Total Medal Tally

No surprise here, USA and China were also predicted to top the table of the total medals won in most predictions.

Table of predicted top 10 countries with TOTAL MEDALS won

rank Gracenote
(Jan, 2024)
Totallympics Nagpal etal. (2023)
1 United States (129) USA (256) USA (109)
2 China (85) China (175) China (74)
3 Great Britain (64)  Japan (149) Great Britain (67)
4 Japan (56)  Great Britain (137) Russia (60)
5 France (53)  France (132) France (55)
6 Australia (48)  Italy (106) Japan (53)
7 Italy (47)  Netherlands (98)  
8 Germany (39)  Australia (95)  
9 Netherlands (35)  Germany (88)  
10 Canada (24)  Spain (57)  



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