2021 Predicted Medal Tally

We have found some models that provide a prediction of the final medal tally for the 2021 Tokyo Olympic Games. With the postponement of the event until 2021 (if they go ahead at all), these predictions of the medal winners may not be valid.

Here are the top 10 positions from each prediction model that we have found. The method used to predict the winners varies, some are from scholars using economics and a range of factors to base their prediction, while others use recent competition results and possibly a bit of gut feeling. Once the actual results are known, we will assess the accuracy of the prediction equations.

There are two sets of tables, one for predictions of the total gold medals won, the other for predicted total overall medals won. See more details about each of these prediction models here. As it is still a long time to go before the Olympics in Tokyo, there not many predictions yet.

Predicted Gold Medal Tally

No surprise here, USA and China are predicted to top the medal table. Host country Japan are predicted to be very successful, as is usually the case with the host country.

Table of predicted top 10 countries with TOTAL GOLD medals won

rank Olympic medals predictions
(Jan 28, 2020)
Towards Data Science
(28 July 2019)
Totallympics
(12 Dec 2019)
BEST Sports
(June 3, 2019)
Gracenote
(Feb 24, 2020)
1 USA (50) USA (30) USA (51) USA (48) USA (47)
2 China (42) China (25) China (42) China (34) China (42)
3 Russia (28) Russia (19) Russia (28) Great Britain (24) Russia (25)
4 Great Britain (20) Germany (18) Japan (17) Japan (22) Japan (28)
5 Japan (18) Great Britain (14) Australia (15) Russia (21) Australia (17)
6 Germany (16) Australia (13) Great Britain (15) Germany (15) Netherlands (16)
7 Australia (14) Brazil (12) Netherlands (14) France (13) GB (15)
8 Netherlands (10) France (11) Germany (14) Italy (13) Germany (9)
9 France (10) Spain (11) France (13) Australia (12) France (7)
10 Hungary (8) Canada (10) Hungary (9) South Korea (12) Italy (7)

Predicted Total Medal Tally

No surprise here, USA and China are predicted to top the table.

Table of predicted top 10 countries with TOTAL MEDALS won

rank Olympic medals predictions
(Jan 28, 2020)
Towards Data Science
(28 July 2019)
Totallympics
(12 Dec 2019)
BEST Sports
(June 3, 2019)
Gracenote
(Feb 24, 2020)
1 USA (109) USA (82) USA (102) USA (134) USA (117)
2 China (92) China (64) China (95) China (90) China (87)
3 Russia (71) Russia (57) Russia (75) Russia (75) Russia (67)
4 Great Britain (53) Germany (54) Japan (57) Japan (52) Japan (64)
5 Japan (52) Australia (42) Australia (50) Great Britain (51) Australia (45)
6 Australia (46) Great Britain (40) Great Britain (54) Germany (47) Netherlands (44)
7 Germany (41) France (36) France (44) Italy (43) GB (44)
8 Italy (38) Brazil (35) Germany (40) France (40) Germany (36)
9 Netherlands (33) Spain (31) Netherlands (37) Australia (38) France (35)
10 France (32) Canada (31) Italy (35) Netherlands (28) Italy (33)

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