Home > Events > Olympics > Summer > Medals > 2004 > Predicted

We now know the final medal tally for the Athens Games in 2004. Prior to the 2004 Games, there were some predictions of who would win the most medals. You can see below how well the predictions were. Now that the actual results are known, the accuracy of the predictions can be assessed. See our analysis of this prediction.

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In 2004, the leading country on the medal table at the end of the Olympics was the USA, as predicted by all prediction models. Both gold medal predictions very closely predicted the US tally of 36, with both models predicting 37 golds.

Table of predicted top 10 countries with TOTAL GOLD medals won

Table of predicted top 10 countries with TOTAL MEDALS won

Notes: See more details of the prediction models.

References

• Johnson D. & A. Ali (2004), A Tale of Two Seasons: Participation and Medal Counts at the Summer and Winter Olympic Games, Social Science Quarterly, 85 (4), 974-93.
• Bernard, A., & Busse, M. R., (2004) Who win the Olympic Games: Economic Resources and medal total, Review of economics and statistics, 86, 413-417
• Julia Bredtmann, Carsten J. Crede, Sebastian Otten: source

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Related Pages

• About Predicted Medal Tables
• See our analysis of the above prediction.
• See the medal tally list from 2004.
• More Medal Tallies from each Olympic year
• See more about the Olympic Games in 2004
• About Olympic Medals