Analysis of 2021 Predicted Medal Tally
There are many published medal predictions that we found in the lead up to the 2021 Tokyo Olympic Games. Now that the actual results are known, the accuracy of the predictions can be assessed. We are using our own analysis method to calculate a single percent accuracy score. It basically calculates the average percentage difference between their prediction and the actual results (in terms of medal won) for the final top five results.
In 2021 the United States and China teams led the way as predicted, for both gold medals and total medals won. The host country Japan performed better than expected, third in the gold medal tally. 65 countries won at least one gold medal, 93 countries won at least one medal of any type. Congratulations to Bermuda and the Philippines for winning their first gold medal ever.
Although the top medal winning countries were as expected, the prediction of the number of medals varied greatly. Using our percent accuracy score, the accuracy ranged from 66% to 93%.
Predicted Gold Medal Tally
Table of top 5 countries with predicted total gold medals won (predictions based on only results)
The best of these predictions was by Kuper et al. University of Groningen in the Netherlands, using an "econometric" approach. The USA was the top pick for all the models, though the number of medal expected were generally overestimated.
| rank | Actual Results | Uni of Groningen | Gracenote |
Olympic medals predictions |
BEST Sports |
Totallympics |
Towards Data Science |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (2021) | (July 16, 2021) | (July 24, 2021) | (July 20, 2021) | (12 Dec 2019) | (28 July 2019) | ||
| 1 | United States (39) | 47 (+21%) | 40 (+3%) | 50 (+28%) | 47 (+21%) | 51 (+31%) | 30 (-23%) |
| 2 | China (38) | 38 (0%) | 33 (-13%) | 39 (+3%) | 30 (-21%) | 42 (+11%) | 25 (-34%) |
| 3 | Japan (27) | 24 (-11%) | 26 (-4%) | 16 (-41%) | 22 (-19%) | 17 (-37%) | 10 (-63%) |
| 4 | Great Britain (22) | 20 (-9%) | 14 (-36%) | 21 (-5%) | 8 (-64%) | 15 (-32%) | 14 (-36%) |
| 5 | Russia (20) | 23 (+15%) | 21 (+5%) | 27 (+35%) | 24 (+20%) | 28 (+40%) | 19 (-5%) |
| percent accuracy score | 89% | 88% | 78% | 71% | 70% | 68% |
Predicted Total Medal Tally
These medal tally predictions below were based on scientific analysis, recent results, or a combination of both - resulting in large variations between lists. As with the gold medal tally predictions above, the USA was generally tipped (correctly) to finish on top.
Table of top 5 countries with predicted total medals won
The best of these predictions was by the website Olympic medals predictions based on the latest sport results leading up to the Olympics.
| rank | actual results | Olympic medals predictions |
Totallympics |
Uni of Groningen | BEST Sports |
Financial Times | Gracenote |
Bleacher Report | Frontiers | Towards Data Science |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (July 24, 2021) | (12 Dec 2019) | (2021) | (July 20, 2021) | (2021) | (July 16, 2021) | (July 22, 2021) | (2022) | (28 July 2019) | ||
| 1 | United States (113) | 113 (0%) | 102 (-10%) | 127 (+12%) | 113 (0%) | 121 (+7%) | 96 (-15%) | 115 (+2%) | 107 (-5%) | 82 (-27%) |
| 2 | China (88) | 82 (-7%) | 95 (+8%) | 80 (-9%) | 76 (-14%) | 72 (-18%) | 66 (-25%) | 84 (-5%) | 95 (+8%) | 64 (-27%) |
| 3 | Russia (71) | 70 (-1%) | 75 (+6%) | 74 (+4%) | 68 (-4%) | 51 (-28%) | 68 (-4%) | 48 (-32%) | 47 (-34%) | 57 (-20%) |
| 4 | Great Britain (64) | 54 (-16%) | 54 (-16%) | 54 (-16%) | 52 (-19%) | 66 (+3%) | 52 (-19%) | 50 (-22%) | 51 (-20%) | 40 (-38%) |
| 5 | Japan (58) | 51 (-12%) | 57 (-2%) | 64 (+10%) | 69 (+19%) | 56 (-3%) | 60 (+3%) | 45 (-22%) | 45 (-22%) | 24 (-59%) |
| percent accuracy score | 93% | 92% | 90% | 89% | 88% | 87% | 83% | 82% | 66% |
See the top 10 predictions for Tokyo 2021 for details about the source of each prediction. See also more details of the prediction models.
Related Pages
- About Predicted Medal Tables
- Summary of all predictions, and about our analysis method to calculate the accuracy of the prediction
- See the medal tally list from 2021.
- More Medal Tallies from each Olympic year
- See more about the Olympic Games in 2021
- About Olympic Medals
Any comments, suggestions, or corrections? Please let us know.
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