Analysis Method of Predicted Medal Tables

We have listed the predicted medal tables for all the Sumer Olympic Games since 2000 (see medal predictions for 2000, 2004, 2008, 2012 and 2016). In order to compare the success of these predictions, we have come up with an analysis method that can be used on all the data so far.

Analysis Method

We have limited this analysis to just the top five ranked countries based on the final medal count after completion of the Olympic Games. The analysis will be applied to the total medal data as well as the total gold medal data when available.

The predicted total is compared to the actual total to get a percentage. If the predicted was 26 medals, and actual was 30, then the percentage accuracy was 26 ÷ 30 x 100 = 87% (recorded as minus 13%). If the predicted was higher than the actual, for example if predicted was 33 medals, then the percentage accuracy was 33 ÷ 30 x 100 = 110% (recorded as plus 10%).

To get a single value for the success of the prediction, we will average the percentage accuracy difference for the top five ranked countries. As the difference can be positive or negative, we will take the absolute value so that only positive numbers are used to get the average difference. The average difference will be taken away from 100% to get the final percentage accuracy score.

Sorry, I am not a mathematician, so my explanation of the analysis I have performed may not be easy to follow. It might make more sense to look at the actual examples.

See this analysis applied for the 2000, 2004, 2008, 2012 and 2016 Olympic Games, and a summary of this analysis.


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