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Gracenote's 2024 Predicted Olympic Games Medal Tally

Gracenote Sports Virtual Medal Table (VMT) is a popular Olympic Games medal predictor. This predictor uses an algorithm to rank athletes and teams in each Olympic event based on recent competition results, and is regularly updated leading up to the Olympic Games. We have decided to track the changes in the predictions in the lead up to the Tokyo Olympics, and to compare these to the actual medal tallies once the Games are completed.

This is just one of many prediction models for the Olympic Games medalists. See All the most recent predictions of the final Paris 2024 medal table.

With competitors from Russia and Belarus being banned from many international competitions since February 2022, it it makes it difficult to assess the potential performances of athletes from these countries, and if their participation status changes then the predictions are expected to change also.

See how these predictions compare to other prediction models for 2024. We also compared Gracenote's predictions over time in 2016 and 2021. There are two sets of tables, one for predictions of the total gold medals won, the other for predicted total overall medals won. See more details about each of these prediction models here.



Gracenote Predicted Gold Medal Tally

No surprise here, USA and China are predicted to top the gold medal table. Host country France is also predicted to rank higher than usual, as is often the case with the host country.

Table of predicted top 10 countries with TOTAL GOLD medals won

rank Gracenote
(July, 2023)
Gracenote
(Sep, 2023)
Gracenote
(Oct, 2023)
Gracenote
(Nov, 2024)
Gracenote
(Dec, 2024)
Gracenote
(Jan, 2024)
Gracenote
(Feb, 2024)
1 United States (43) United States (35) United States (38) United States (37) United States (37) United States (37) United States (37)
2 France (32) China (33) China (33) China (35) China (35) China (35) China (37)
3 China (26) France (32) France (27) France (27) France (27) France (26) France (27)
4 Italy (20) Great Britain (19) Great Britain (17) Great Britain (17) Great Britain (17) Great Britain (17) Netherlands (17)
5 Great Britain (15) Netherlands (17) Netherlands (16) Netherlands (16) Japan (17) Japan (17) Great Britain (16)
6 Netherlands (13) Australia (15) Japan (15) Japan (15) Netherlands (16) Netherlands (16) Japan (15)
7 Japan (12) Japan (13) Australia (15) Australia (15) Australia (15) Australia (15) Italy (14)
8 Australia (12) Italy (12) Italy (13) Italy (13) Italy (13) Italy (13) Germany (9)
9 Germany (10) Germany (10) Germany (10) Germany (10) Germany (10) Germany (10) Brazil (9)
10 Canada (9) Canada (7) Brazil (8) Brazil (8) Brazil (9) Brazil (9) Australia (8)

Predicted Total Medal Tally

No surprise here, USA and China were also predicted to top the table of the total medals won.

Table of predicted top 10 countries with TOTAL MEDALS won

rank Gracenote
(July 23)
Gracenote
(Sep 23)
Gracenote
(Oct, 2023)
Gracenote
(Nov, 2023)
Gracenote
(Dec, 2023)
Gracenote
(Jan, 2024)
Gracenote
(Feb, 2024)
1 United States (128) United States (127) United States (127) United States (126) United States (126) United States (129) United States (121)
2 China (68) China (73) China (75) China (78) China (78) China (85) China (85)
3 France (63) Great Britain (67) Great Britain (65) Great Britain (66) Great Britain (65) Great Britain (64) Great Britain (65)
4 Great Britain (62) France (59) Japan (56) Japan (58) Japan (58) Japan (56) Japan (53)
5 Japan (54) Japan (55) France (53) France (51) France (54) France (53) France (52)
6 Italy (45) Italy (50) Australia (49) Australia (50) Australia (50) Australia (48) Italy (47)
7 Australia (42) Australia (48) Italy (48) Italy (49) Italy (48) Italy (47) Australia (46)
8 Netherlands (41) Netherlands (36) Netherlands (38) Germany (38) Germany (37) Germany (39) Germany (43)
9 Germany (35) Germany (35) Germany (37) Netherlands (37) Netherlands (37) Netherlands (35) Netherlands (39)
10 South Korea (29) Canada (24) Canada (23) Canada (23) Canada (23) Canada (24) South Korea (29)

Sources



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