2014 World Cup Predictions
Leading up to the 2014 Brazil World Cup, there were predictions made about which team will win the tournament, with varying success. The predictions listed below use various methods, such as analyzing bookmaker odds and using recent results and rankings.
2014 Predictions
Brazil were clear favorites, due to very good recent form and given they were playing at home. Germany won the tournament after thrashing Brazil 7-1 in the semifinal.
| Predictions | First | Second | Third | Fourth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zeileis | Brazil (22.5%) | Argentina (15.8%) | Germany (13.4%) | Spain (11.8%) |
| Groll | Germany (28.8%) | Brazil (27.6%) | Spain (9.0%) | Belgium (8.2%) |
| SB Nation | Brazil (28%) | Spain (24%) | Portugal (7%) | Germany (5%) |
| Goldman Sachs | Brazil (48.5%) | Argentina (14.1%) | Germany (11.4%) | Spain (9.8%) |
| FiveThirtyEight | Brazil (45.2%) | Argentina (12.8%) | Germany (10.9%) | Spain (7.6%) |
| Dormagen | Brazil (25%) | Spain (15%) | Germany (14%) | Argentina (10%) |
| Infostrada | Brazil | Spain | Germany | Argentina |
| Yuan | Brazil (21%) | Spain (7.6%) | Germany (7.5%) | Portugal (6.9%) |
| Power Rank | Brazil (28.6%) | Spain (12.6%) | Argentina (11.5%) | Germany (10.7%) |
| Betegy | Germany (18%) | Argentina (17%) | Brazil (16%) | Spain (13%) |
| Betfair | Brazil (23.3%) | Argentina (18.9%) | Germany (12.6%) | Spain (12.6%) |
| Elo Ratings | Brazil | Spain | Germany | Argentina |
| FIFA ranking | Spain | Germany | Brazil | Portugal |
| actual result | Germany | Argentina | Netherlands | Brazil |
Prediction References
- Zeileis et al. - Zeileis A, Leitner C, Hornik K (2014). "Home Victory for Brazil in the 2014 FIFA World Cup", Working Paper 2014-17, Working Papers in Economics and Statistics, Research Platform Empirical and Experimental Economics, Universität Innsbruck. METHOD: prediction based on a bookmaker consensus rating which aggregates winning odds from 22 online bookmakers. https://www2.uibk.ac.at/downloads/c4041030/wpaper/2014-17.pdf
- Groll et al. - Andreas Groll, Gunther Schauberger and Gerhard Tutz, Brazil or Germany - who will win the trophy? Prediction of the FIFA World Cup 2014 based on team-specific regularized Poisson regression. July 2, 2014. Their prediction is based on a regularized Poisson regression model that includes various potentially influential covariates describing the national teams' success in previous FIFA World Cups. https://epub.ub.uni-muenchen.de/21072/1/tr166.pdf
- SB Nation - A prediction by Michael Caley. He uses a chance-quality model based on shot locations and shot types. The model also accounts for strength of schedule, the recency of the match, and whether it was a competitive fixture or a friendly. https://www.sbnation.com/soccer/2014/6/11/5793328/2014-world-cup-predictions
- Goldman Sachs - predictions for each match are based on a regression analysis that uses the entire history of mandatory international football matches (i.e., no friendlies) since 1960, then a stochastic model that generates a distribution of outcomes for each of the matches of the World Cup. The regression equation factors are the difference in the Elo rankings between the two teams, the number of goals scored by the team and opposition in recent games, and a factor for home games and games played in previous world cups. http://www.goldmansachs.com/our-thinking/archive/world-cup-sections/world-cup-book-2014-statistical-model.html
- FiveThirtyEight - based on a statistical model by Nate Silver using ESPN's Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings, a combination of each team's recent match results and the overall quality of its World Cup roster. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/its-brazils-world-cup-to-lose/
- Dormagen - Development of a Simulator for the FIFA World Cup 2014, by David Dormagen. Bachelor Thesis at the Institute for Computer Science of the Free University of Berlin, Artificial Intelligence Working Group. He uses a probabilistic simulation model to simulate the football world cup by means of different rules, which take into account different rating systems. http://www.inf.fu-berlin.de/inst/ag-ki/rojas_home/documents/Betreute_Arbeiten/Bachelor-Dormagen.pdf
- Infostrada (now known as Gracenote) - the methodology used is based on the Elo rating system. http://www.infostradasports.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/KnockoutResults1.pdf
- Yuan - Andrew Yuan used match results since 1930, ranking tables since 1993 and location data. http://andrewyuan.github.io/EDAV-project.html
- Power Rank - a prediction by Ed Feng which aggregates data from many models. https://thepowerrank.com/2014/06/13/aggregating-the-results-of-many-world-cup-prediction-models/
- Betegy - Uses a wide range of factors to calculate winners, such as match statistics and previous results, http://www.worldcuppredictions.com/world-cup-predictor/2014-06-12
- Betfair - betting probabilities of winning the tournament as published by FiveThirtyEight
- Elo Ratings - The World Football Elo Ratings are based on the Elo rating system, developed by Dr. Arpad Elo. Ratings use the results of recent matches. The prediction is based on the top four rated teams before the start of the tournament.
- FIFA Rankings - official FIFA team ranking data from just prior to the tournament in June 2014
Related Pages
- Other World Cup Predictions
- Results from Brazil 2014
- Olympic Games medal predictions
- Winter Olympics Medal Predictions
Any comments, suggestions, or corrections? Please let us know.
