Analysis of the medal count predictions for the 2014 Winter Olympics

There were many predictions about which nation would top the 2014 Winter Olympic Games medal tally. Now that the actual results are known, the accuracy of the predictions can be assessed. We are using our own analysis method to calculate a single percent accuracy score. It basically calculates the average percentage difference between their prediction and the actual results for the final top five results.

Prediction of gold medals to be won in 2014

The two predictions for total gold medals to be won at the 2014 Winter Olympics both correctly picked the top three nations, though they were predicted to win more gold medals than they actually did, indicating that the gold medal winners were spread over a larger number of nations than expected. Out of the top five, The Netherlands won more than both predictions. The prediction by Cazeneuve proved to be more accurate overall.

TABLE of top 5 countries with predicted GOLD MEDALS won (showing percentage difference)

rank actual result Cazeneuve VMT (golds)
1 Norway (11) 13 (+18%) 15 (+36%)
2 Canada (10) 12 (+20%) 11 (+10%)
3 USA (9) 13 (+44%) 14 (+56%)
4 Russia (9) 9 (0%) 5 (-44%)
5 Netherlands (8) 7 (-12%) 5 (-37%)
percent accuracy score 81% 63%

Prediction of total medals to be won in 2014

Only one prediction (by Graettinger) correctly foretold that the USA would top the total medal count at the Sochi Winter Olympics. They also closely predicted the medal count (29 versus 28) and was the more accurate overall (76% accuracy score). The predictions of Graettinger and the Andreffs were more accurate than the others, a win for economic prediction models over predictions based on event results.

TABLE of top 5 countries with predicted TOTAL MEDALS won (showing percentage difference)

rank actual results Graettinger Madeleine & Wladimir Andreff Cazeneuve VMT (total)
1 USA (28 medals) 29 (+4%) 36 (+29%) 34 (+21%) 28 (0%)
2 Norway (26) 16 (-38%) 24 (-8%) 35 (+35%) 37 (+42%)
3 Canada (25) 18 (-28%) 27 (+8%) 31 (+24%) 34 (+36%)
4 Netherlands (24) 15 (-37%) 6 (-75%) 13 (-46%) 14 (-42%)
5 Russia (22) 19 (-14%) 24 (+9%) 25 (+14%) 17 (-23%)
percent accuracy score 76% 74% 72% 71%

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