Who will top the 2014 Winter Olympic Games medal tally? There was lots of conjecture, but here we show a couple of examples of more scientific and methodical predictions. Read our analysis of these predictions, to see how well they predicted the medal counts.
There are two categories of predictions: one is predictions based on competition results leading up to the Olympics, such as those by the Olympic Virtual Medal Tracker (VMT) below. The other is from scholars using economics and a range of factors to base their predictions.
Prediction of total gold medals to be won in 2014
The two predictions for total gold medals to be won at the 2014 Winter Olympics both correctly picked the top three with Norway as winning the most medals, though they had the order of the next two incorrect.
|rank||actual result||VMT (golds)||Cazeneuve|
|1||Norway (11 gold medals)||Norway (15)||Norway (13)|
|2||Canada (10)||USA (14)||USA (13)|
|3||USA (9)||Canada (11)||Canada (12)|
|4||Russia (9)||Germany (6)||Russia (9)|
|5||Netherlands (8)||France (6)||Germany (8)|
|6||Germany (8)||China (6)||The Netherlands (7)|
|7||Switzerland (6)||Austria (5)||Austria (5)|
|8||Belarus (5)||Russia (5)||South Korea (5)|
|9||Austria (4)||The Netherlands (5)||France (3)|
|10||France (4)||Sweden (5)||China (3)|
Prediction of total medals to be won in 2014
Only one prediction correctly foretold that the USA would top the total medal count at the Sochi Winter Olympics.
|rank||actual results||VMT (total)||Cazeneuve||Graettinger||Madeleine & Wladimir Andreff|
|1||USA (28 medals)||Norway (37)||Norway (35)||USA (29)||USA (36)|
|2||Norway (26)||USA (28)||USA (34)||Germany (23)||Germany (28)|
|3||Canada (25)||Canada (34)||Canada (31)||China (22)||Canada (27)|
|4||Netherlands (24)||Germany (37)||Germany (30)||Russia (19)||Russia (24)|
|5||Russia (22)||France (18)||Russia (25)||Canada (18)||Norway (24)|
|6||Germany (19)||China (12)||Austria (19)||Norway (16)||Austria (15)|
|7||Austria (17)||Austria (19)||The Netherlands (13)||Netherlands (15)||Sweden (13)|
|8||France (15)||Russia (17)||South Korea (13)||UK (13)||France (12)|
|9||Sweden (15)||The Netherlands (14)||Sweden (13)||France (13)||China (11)|
|10||Switzerland (11)||Sweden (8)||France (11)||Sweden (13)||South Korea (11)|
About The Predictors
- Virtual Medal Table (VMT) — This medal table prediction was created by Gracenote Sports (called Infostrada Sports at the time). This predictor uses an algorithm to rank athletes and teams in each Olympic event based on recent competition results, and is updated monthly leading up to the Games. This table is from Nov 7 2013, and will change before the event starts.
- Brian Cazeneuve - has published his predictions in Sports Illustrated for many years, picking the actual winners of each event based on recent results.
- Madeleine & Wladimir Andreff - from the research article: "Economic Prediction of Medal Wins at the 2014 Winter Olympics", by Madeleine Andreff and Wladimir Andreff.
- Dan and Tim Graettinger - using a linear statistical model that include the variables of Geographic area, GDP per capita , and Value of Exports and Latitude of Nation's Capital. See the original article on discovery corps
- Medal Tally from every Winter Olympics.
- Predictions for the 2016 Summer Olympics
- Winter Olympics main page.