Predictions of the medal count for the 2014 Winter Olympics

Who will top the 2014 Winter Olympic Games medal tally? There was lots of conjecture, but here we show a couple of examples of more scientific and methodical predictions. Read our analysis of these predictions, to see how well they predicted the medal counts.

There are two categories of predictions: one is predictions based on competition results leading up to the Olympics, such as those by the Olympic Virtual Medal Tracker (VMT) below. The other is from scholars using economics and a range of factors to base their predictions.

Prediction of total gold medals to be won in 2014

The two predictions for total gold medals to be won at the 2014 Winter Olympics both correctly picked the top three with Norway as winning the most medals, though they had the order of the next two incorrect.

rank actual result VMT (golds) Cazeneuve
1 Norway (11 gold medals) Norway (15) Norway (13)
2 Canada (10) USA (14) USA (13)
3 USA (9) Canada (11) Canada (12)
4 Russia (9) Germany (6) Russia (9)
5 Netherlands (8) France (6) Germany (8)
6 Germany (8) China (6) The Netherlands (7)
7 Switzerland (6) Austria (5) Austria (5)
8 Belarus (5) Russia (5) South Korea (5)
9 Austria (4) The Netherlands (5) France (3)
10 France (4) Sweden (5) China (3)

Prediction of total medals to be won in 2014

Only one prediction correctly foretold that the USA would top the total medal count at the Sochi Winter Olympics.

rank actual results VMT (total) Cazeneuve Graettinger Madeleine & Wladimir Andreff
1 USA (28 medals) Norway (37) Norway (35) USA (29) USA (36)
2 Norway (26) USA (28) USA (34) Germany (23) Germany (28)
3 Canada (25) Canada (34) Canada (31) China (22) Canada (27)
4 Netherlands (24) Germany (37) Germany (30) Russia (19) Russia (24)
5 Russia (22) France (18) Russia (25) Canada (18) Norway (24)
6 Germany (19) China (12) Austria (19) Norway (16) Austria (15)
7 Austria (17) Austria (19) The Netherlands (13) Netherlands (15) Sweden (13)
8 France (15) Russia (17) South Korea (13) UK (13) France (12)
9 Sweden (15) The Netherlands (14) Sweden (13) France (13) China (11)
10 Switzerland (11) Sweden (8) France (11) Sweden (13) South Korea (11)

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