Predicted PyeongChang 2018 Medal Tally
Who will top the 2018 Winter Olympic Games medal tally? In the lead up to the event there was a lot of conjecture about who will win events, but here we show many examples of more scientific and methodical predictions.
There are two main categories of prediction methods: one is predictions based on competition results leading up to the Olympics, such as those by Gracenote shown below, the other is from scholars using economics and a range of factors to base their predictions (or a mixture of both of thesee). Only time will tell how correct they are and which method may be better.
Of the predictions of the total gold medals to be won, seven out of ten predicted that Norway would top the medal tally (average position 1.5), with Germany generally next (ave 1.9). In terms of total medals won, again Norway was predicted to top the table with USA and Germany in the mix. The details and source of each of the predictions are listed further down the page.
Now that the Games are over, we can see how their predictions went.
Prediction of TOTAL GOLD MEDALS to be won in 2018
| Predictors | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th | 6th to 10th |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NOR (16) |
GER (10) |
CAN (10) |
USA (9) |
NED (8) |
SWE (7), KOR (5), SUI (5), FRA (5), AUT (5) |
| VMT | GER (14) |
NOR (13) |
USA (11) |
FRA (10) |
CAN (7) |
NED (7), AUT (6), KOR (6), CHN (6), SUI (4) |
| Sciencing | NOR (16) |
GER (10) |
CAN (10) |
USA (9) |
JAP (8) |
FRA (7), KOR (7), ITA (6), AUT (5), SWE (4) |
| Cazeneuve |
NOR (17) |
GER (15) |
CAN (9) |
USA (9) |
KOR (7) |
NED (6), SUI (6), AUT (5), SWE (4), ITA (4) |
| Wall St Journal | GER (13) |
NOR (12) |
USA (11) |
CAN (11) |
FRA (7) |
NED (6), JAP (5), KOR (5), SWE (5), ITA (5) |
| AAP | NOR (21) |
GER (15) |
CAN (14) |
USA (10) |
KOR (8) |
JAP (6), NED (5), AUT (5), FRA (4), SWE (3) |
| Barra |
NOR (11) |
USA (9) |
GER (8) |
AUT (7) |
OAR (5) |
NED (3), SLO (3), SUI (3), CZE (3), FRA (2) |
| Tumblr |
NOR (17) |
GER (14) |
USA (9) |
FRA (8) |
CAN (7) |
KOR (7), NED (6), AUT (6), JAP (6), SUI (4) |
| Groningen | CAN (12) |
GER (11) |
USA (9) |
NOR (9) |
KOR (9) |
OAR (7), AUT (6), FRA (6), NED (5), SUI (5) |
| OddsShark |
NOR (3-2) |
GER (8-5) |
USA (5-1) |
CAN (7-1) |
NED (16-1) |
KOR (28-1), FRA (33-1), AUT (50-1), SUI (50-1), CHN (66-1) |
| Inside the Games | NOR (40%) |
GER (14.7%) |
CAN (14.7%) |
USA (10.3%) |
OAR (8.8%) |
CHN (4.4%), NED (2.9%), FRA (1.5%), AUT (1.5%), KOR (1.5%) |
| ave position | NOR (1.5) |
GER (1.9) |
USA (3.3) |
CAN (4.2) |
NED (7.0) |
Prediction of TOTAL MEDALS to be won in 2018
| Predictors | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th | 6th to 10th |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NOR (39) |
GER (31) |
CAN (29) |
USA (23) |
NED (20) |
KOR (17), OAR (17), FRA (15), SUI (15), SWE (14) |
| VMT | NOR (41) |
GER (39) |
USA (29) |
CAN (28) |
FRA (21) |
NED (18), SUI (16), AUT (15), SWE (15), JAP (14) |
| Sciencing | GER (42) |
NOR (36) |
USA (32) |
CAN ( 29) |
SUI
(18) |
FRA (16), JAP (14), ITA (14), OAR (13), KOR (12) |
| Cazeneuve |
NOR (42) |
GER (35) |
CAN (30) |
USA (28) |
FRA (18) |
NED (17), AUT (16), JAP (14), SWE (13), KOR (12) |
| Wall St Journal | USA (36) |
NOR (36) |
CAN (33) |
GER (32) |
FRA (20) |
NED (18), JAP (14), KOR (13), SWE (13), OAR (12) |
| AAP | NOR (41) |
USA (40) |
CAN (36) |
GER (29) |
NED (20) |
AUT (16), FRA (15), JAP (13), KOR (12), SWE (12) |
| Barra |
USA (23) |
AUT (21) |
NOR (19) |
GER (18) |
NED (15) |
FRA (14), OAR (12), SWE (12), CAN (11), SUI (9) |
| Tumblr | NOR (42) |
GER (36) |
USA (33) |
CAN (30) |
FRA (20) |
AUT (15), SWE (15), NED (14), KOR (13), SUI (12) |
| Groningen | USA (34) |
GER (28) |
NOR (28) |
CAN (25) |
OAR (21) |
AUT (19), NED (18), FRA (17), KOR (16), SUI (15) |
| OddsShark |
GER (7-4) |
NOR (7-4) |
USA (4-1) |
CAN (7-1) |
NED (16-1) |
FRA (40-1), AUT (50-1), KOR (50-1), China (66-1), SUI (80-1) |
| Bleacher Report | NOR (37) |
GER (36) |
USA (31) |
CAN (28) |
FRA (24) |
NED (23) |
| ave position | NOR (1.7) |
USA (2.4) |
GER (2.4) |
CAN (4.2) |
FRA (5.8) |
country codes: Germany (GER), Norway (NOR), United States (USA), Canada (CAN), France (FRA), South Korea (KOR), Japan (JAP), Austria (AUT), Italy (ITA), Sweden (SWE), The Netherlands (NED), China (CHN), Switzerland (SUI), Olympic Athletes from Russia (OAR), Czechia (CZE), Slovenia (SLO)
About The Predictors
- Virtual Medal Table (VMT) — from 7 Feb 2018 - This medal table prediction was created by Gracenote Sports. This predictor uses an algorithm to rank athletes and teams in each Olympic event based on recent competition results, and is updated regularly leading up to the Games (see changes over time).
- Sciencing - from (Jan '18) - The team at the Sciencing website have a prediction based on past performances. The formula consists of two parts: historical performance (World Cups since 2016-17) and current form (from last 3-5 World Cup events) with more weight to the most recent season. Source here.
- Brian Cazeneuve - from (29 Jan '18) - has published his predictions in the January 29-February 5 double issue of Sports Illustrated, The method used is picking the actual winners of each event based on recent results.
- Wall Street Journal - from (Feb '18) - The Journal's forecasting system identified medal contenders in all events using results at recent national and international competitions and interviews with experts. It assigned each contender a probability of winning a gold medal and of winning any medal. Source here.
- AAP - from Feb 2018 - The number of gold and total medals were derived from the medal projections compiled from predictions by the staff of The Associated Press who cover each sport. Original source https://www.newsday.com/sports/olympics/winter-olympics-medal-projections-pyeongchang-1.16601483 (link not working)
- Luciano Barra - from (Feb '15) - a former sports managing director of the Italian National Olympic Committee and deputy chief executive of the 2006 Winter Olympics and Paralympics in Turin, and has a reputation as being an accurate predictor of Olympic success. Barra calls his medal counts as "projections, not predictions". His projections are based on the results of recent world championships. Source here.
- Tumblr Guy - (Feb '18) - there are predictions listed on Tumblr but no indication who created them. The method used is by selecting the winner of each event, probably based on recent results. The final predictions from https://pyeongchang2018predictions.tumblr.com/ are listed (site no longer active).
- Groningen - (Jan 2018) - predictions by Gerard H. Kuper, Fabian ten Kate and Elmer Sterken of the University of Groningen in the Netherlands, using an "econometric" approach. Their prediction is based on the results of recent World Championships for the relevant disciplines, supplemented by a factor of the home advantage. The 2018 medal tally data is from the article: Kate, F. ten, G.H. Kuper and E. Sterken (2018), "Medaillevoorspelling Pyeongchang," Economisch Statistische Berichten, Vol. 103, No. 4758, 15 Februari 2018, pp. 84-86.
- Bleacher Report - from (8 Feb '18) - A page on the Bleacher Report website lists the top 6 predictions. No method or other source is listed, so we are not sure how they came about their list. Source here.
- OddsShark - (Feb 2018) - order based on betting market odds. Source here.
- Inside the Games - (voting closed 16 Feb '18) - a crowdsourced list of votes for the country which will finish on top of the medal tally. Source here.
Related Pages
- Analysis of the 2018 Medal Predictions
- 2018 Winter Olympics Medal Tally
- 2018 medal tally per capita
- more Winter Olympics predictions
- Medal Tally from every Winter Olympics.
Any comments, suggestions, or corrections? Please let us know.
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