Predicted 2018 Medal Tally

Who will top the 2018 Winter Olympic Games medal tally? There is a lot of conjecture, but here we show many examples of more scientific and methodical predictions. There are two main categories of prediction methods: one is predictions based on competition results leading up to the Olympics, such as those by Gracenote shown below, the other is from scholars using economics and a range of factors to base their predictions (or a mixture of both of thesee). Only time will tell how correct they are and which method may be better.

Of the predictions of the total gold medals to be won, seven out of ten predicted that Norway would top the medal tally (average position 1.5), with Germany generally next (ave 1.9). In terms of total medals won, again Norway is predicted to top the table with USA and Germany in the mix. The details and source of each of the predictions are listed further down the page.

Now that the Games are over, we can see how their predictions went.

Prediction of TOTAL GOLD MEDALS to be won in 2018

Predictors 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th to 10th        
Actual NOR
(16)
GER
(10)
CAN
(10)
USA
(9)
NED
(8)
SWE (7), KOR (5), SUI (5), FRA (5), AUT (5)
VMT GER
(14)
NOR
(13)
USA
(11)
FRA
(10)
CAN
(7)
NED (7), AUT (6), KOR (6), CHN (6), SUI (4)
Sciencing NOR
(16)
GER
(10)
CAN
(10)
USA
(9)
JAP
(8)
FRA (7), KOR (7), ITA (6), AUT (5), SWE (4)
Cazeneuve
NOR
(17)
GER
(15)
CAN
(9)
USA
(9)
KOR
(7)
NED (6), SUI (6), AUT (5), SWE (4), ITA (4)
Wall St Journal GER
(13)
NOR
(12)
USA
(11)
CAN
(11)
FRA
(7)
NED (6), JAP (5), KOR (5), SWE (5), ITA (5)
AAP NOR
(21)
GER
(15)
CAN
(14)
USA
(10)
KOR
(8)
JAP (6), NED (5), AUT (5), FRA (4), SWE (3)
Barra
NOR
(11)
USA
(9)
GER
(8)
AUT
(7)
OAR
(5)
NED (3), SLO (3), SUI (3), CZE (3), FRA (2)
Tumblr
NOR
(17)
GER
(14)
USA
(9)
FRA
(8)
CAN
(7)
KOR (7), NED (6), AUT (6), JAP (6), SUI (4)
Groningen CAN
(12)
GER
(11)
USA
(9)
NOR
(9)
KOR
(9)
OAR (7), AUT (6), FRA (6), NED (5), SUI (5)
OddsShark
NOR
(3-2)
GER
(8-5)
USA
(5-1)
CAN
(7-1)
NED
(16-1)
KOR (28-1), FRA (33-1), AUT (50-1), SUI (50-1), CHN (66-1)
Inside the Games NOR
(40%)
GER
(14.7%)
CAN
(14.7%)
USA
(10.3%)
OAR
(8.8%)
CHN (4.4%), NED (2.9%), FRA (1.5%), AUT (1.5%), KOR (1.5%)
ave position NOR
(1.5)
GER
(1.9)
USA
(3.3)
CAN
(4.2)
NED
(7.0)

Prediction of TOTAL MEDALS to be won in 2018

Predictors 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th to 10th        
Actual NOR
(39)
GER
(31)
CAN
(29)
USA
(23)
NED
(20)
KOR (17), OAR (17), FRA (15), SUI (15), SWE (14)
VMT NOR
(41)
GER
(39)
USA
(29)
CAN
(28)
FRA
(21)
NED (18), SUI (16), AUT (15), SWE (15), JAP (14)
Sciencing GER
(42)
NOR
(36)
USA
(32)
CAN
( 29)
SUI
(18)
FRA (16), JAP (14), ITA (14), OAR (13), KOR (12)
Cazeneuve
NOR
(42)
GER
(35)
CAN
(30)
USA
(28)
FRA
(18)
NED (17), AUT (16), JAP (14), SWE (13), KOR (12)
Wall St Journal USA
(36)
NOR
(36)
CAN
(33)
GER
(32)
FRA
(20)
NED (18), JAP (14), KOR (13), SWE (13), OAR (12)
AAP NOR
(41)
USA
(40)
CAN
(36)
GER
(29)
NED
(20)
AUT (16), FRA (15), JAP (13), KOR (12), SWE (12)
Barra
USA
(23)
AUT
(21)
NOR
(19)
GER
(18)
NED
(15)
FRA (14), OAR (12), SWE (12), CAN (11), SUI (9)
Tumblr NOR
(42)
GER
(36)
USA
(33)
CAN
(30)
FRA
(20)
AUT (15), SWE (15), NED (14), KOR (13), SUI (12)
Groningen USA
(34)
GER
(28)
NOR
(28)
CAN
(25)
OAR
(21)
AUT (19), NED (18), FRA (17), KOR (16), SUI (15)
OddsShark
GER
(7-4)
NOR
(7-4)
USA
(4-1)
CAN
(7-1)
NED
(16-1)
FRA (40-1), AUT (50-1), KOR (50-1), China (66-1), SUI (80-1)
Bleacher Report NOR
(37)
GER
(36)
USA
(31)
CAN
(28)
FRA
(24)
NED (23)
ave position NOR
(1.7)
USA
(2.4)
GER
(2.4)
CAN
(4.2)
FRA
(5.8)

country codes: Germany (GER), Norway (NOR), United States (USA), Canada (CAN), France (FRA), South Korea (KOR), Japan (JAP), Austria (AUT), Italy (ITA), Sweden (SWE), The Netherlands (NED), China (CHN), Switzerland (SUI), Olympic Athletes from Russia (OAR), Czech Republic (CZE), Slovenia (SLO)

olympic medalsAbout The Predictors

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