2018 World Cup Predictions

Leading up to the 2018 World Cup, there were many predictions made about which team would win the tournament. The predictions used various methods, such as analyzing bookmaker odds, using recent results and statistics, and player and team rankings.

There was no consensus for the predicted winner, though Germany and Brazil were mostly listed to finish first or second. The tournament was won by France. No prediction picked the winner correctly, and only half of them had France in the top four, and usually placed fourth behind Brazil, Germany and Spain.

The best prediction? It is hard to say, but the only one to have France not finishing fourth or worse was the prediction by Goldman Sachs, which used a combination of crunching data on team characteristics, individual players and recent team performance.

Table of 2018 Predictions

Prediction Model First Second Third Fourth
Zeileis et al. Brazil (16.6%) Germany (15.8%) Spain (12.5%) France (12.1%)
Ekstrøm Germany (25.4%) Brazil (20.1%) Belgium (~11%) Spain (~10.5%)
Gracenote Brazil (~22%) Spain (~10%) Germany (~8%) Argentina (~8%)
Groll et al. Spain (17.8%) Germany (17.1%) Brazil (12.3%) France (11.2%)
Audran et al. Germany (24.0%) Brazil (19.8%) Spain (16.1%) England (8.5%)
Llaneras & Andrino Brazil (17.9%) Germany (15.6%) Spain (15.3%) Argentina (11.3%)
Goldman Sachs Brazil (18.5%) France (11.3%) Germany (10.7%) Portugal (9.4%)
FiveThirtyEight Brazil (19%) Spain (17%) Germany (13%) France (8%)
Gilch & Müller Germany (26.0%) Brazil (13.2%) Spain (11.2%) Argentina (9.2%)
Yuan Brazil (16.2%) Germany (14.3%) Poland (11.7%) France (8.0%)
Elo Ratings Brazil Germany Spain France
FIFA ranking Germany Brazil Belgium Portugal
Consensus Brazil (42) Germany (37) Spain (21) France (8)
FINAL PLACINGS France Croatia Belgium England

Prediction References

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FIFA World Cup Extra

The next World Cup will be in Qatar 2022, the first to be played in the winter time. See more firsts and other trivia, and also information about each country at the World Cup.

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