Premier League Odds and Predictions 2026

Arsenal are 2.50 favourites in the Premier League odds for 2026, and our Premier League predictions make Manchester City champions by two points.

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The short version:

• Title favourite. Arsenal at 2.50.
• Our champion. Manchester City, by two points.
• Relegation favourite. Hull City at 1.17, and we agree.
• Top scorer favourite. Erling Haaland at 1.67.

This page prices the title race in full and forms part of our wider Premier League betting coverage.

Where the Premier League Odds Stand in Ireland Right Now

The season starts on 21 2026 and the Premier League odds have already shifted once. Arsenal opened the summer at 2.20 to retain the title. Since then the wider market has pushed them out to 2.50 while Manchester City have come in from 4.50 to 3.75. That’s a real move and nobody has kicked a ball yet.

Two things caused it. Pep Guardiola left City and Enzo Maresca replaced him, which is why Irish books hung a bigger price on City over the summer. Liverpool have come in from 7.00 to 6.50, with Andoni Iraola settling in at Anfield. Chelsea haven’t moved at all, 9.00 at the start of the summer and 9.00 now, despite another heavy summer under Xabi Alonso. The market wants to see it first.

I took Manchester City at 4.50 in the summer and the same bet is 3.75 today. Decimal prices move most in the weeks nobody is watching, and the English Premier League odds at Irish books follow the London market by about a day.

Our Premier League predictions below start from where the money actually went, not from last season’s table.

Premier League Winner Odds and Title Favourites

Arsenal are 2.50 to win the Premier League and nobody else is shorter than 3.75. The Premier League odds winner market is the largest one on the Irish page, and it is a two-horse outright market with an eighteen club tail behind it, priced to lose.

The case for Arsenal is simple. They took 85 points, won by seven, and lost nobody who mattered. Arteta has the strongest first eleven in the league.

The case against them is the calendar. Arsenal play 38 league games, the Champions League and both cups with a top-heavy squad. When Ødegaard or Saka miss six weeks, the drop to their replacements is steeper than City’s.

That’s where we disagree with the market. We make Manchester City champions by two points. Enzo Maresca inherits a squad that took 78 points in a season everyone called a failure, still has Erling Haaland, and can rotate eight outfield players without losing much. The market marked City out because Guardiola left, and 3.75 is the value against the consensus here.

Liverpool at 6.50 are the third price and the one we’d leave alone. Iraola is a good appointment, and a coach’s first season at a new club is usually his worst.

Outright title bets are futures, so your money is tied up until the final day. How futures betting works covers the each way and top-four alternatives.

Club	Irish price	Market implied against ours
Arsenal	2.50	40% against 34%
Manchester City	3.75	27% against 38%
Liverpool	6.50	15% against 11%
Manchester United	8.00	13% against 7%
Chelsea	9.00	11% against 5%
Tottenham	21.00	5% against 1%
Everyone else	67.00 or bigger	The rest, 4% between them

Market implied probabilities total more than 100 percent because they include the bookmaker’s margin. Ours totals 100. The gap on City, 27 against 38, is the argument of this page.

All prices are decimal and in euro, from bookmakers licensed to take bets in Ireland, checked August 2026. Our LiveScore Bet review covers how its outright market and price alerts work.

Club by Club Title Odds

Irish outright demand doesn’t sit on one table. It splits by club. More people here search Man Utd to win Premier League odds and Chelsea to win Premier League odds than search the market as a whole. You arrive with a club in mind.

Manchester United and Liverpool carry the two biggest followings in Ireland and neither is priced to win anything. Arsenal and Chelsea sit either side of them, one too short to back and one on its fourth head coach in five years. Tottenham are on the table because people ask. The rows run in order of Irish following rather than price, so the club you came to check is near the top.

Club	Price	The one-line read
Manchester United	8.00	Third place was real. A title challenge isn’t, not with this defence.
Liverpool	6.50	Iraola will improve them, but not by 25 points in year one.
Arsenal	2.50	They’ll be there in May. The price pays you nothing for being right.
Chelsea	9.00	Best squad money can buy, fourth head coach in five years.
Manchester City	3.75	Our pick, and the only short price we’d actually take.
Tottenham	21.00	Seventeenth last season. A top-six price at best.

Manchester United at 8.00 is the one worth an argument. Third on 71 points, and the market still doesn’t trust the defence. Man Utd to win Premier League odds are the most searched club price in Ireland, and 8.00 is the shortest it has been in three years. Chelsea at 9.00 are the opposite case, a better squad priced longer because nobody knows which version turns up. Whichever you back, check the book against the Revenue Commissioners’ register, and the best betting apps in Ireland push alerts when an outright moves.

Our Predicted Premier League Final Table

Our Premier League predictions start from expected goals rather than from where clubs finished, because where a club finished is the least reliable thing about it. The points column matters more than the finishing order here. Two points separate first and second, so a single result in May could swap them.

The Premier League prediction table has Manchester City on 84 and Arsenal on 82. Two points across 38 games is nothing. Last season those two were separated by 0.03 expected goals a match and by seven points in the table, which tells you how much of that gap was margin.

Three clubs finished well above what they earned. Sunderland came seventh with the seventeenth best expected goal difference in the league. Brentford came ninth with the sixteenth. Aston Villa came fourth with the tenth. Gaps that wide close, and they close downwards.

Three finished well below. Chelsea were fifth on expected goal difference and tenth in the table. Newcastle were seventh and twelfth. Tottenham were eleventh and seventeenth. All three climb.

We’re not predicting a different league. We’re predicting the same league with the luck taken out. These are central projections. Run the season a thousand times and this is the middle of the distribution.

Pos and club	Predicted points	Our read
1 Manchester City	84	Our champions. Can change eight outfield players without losing much, which is what a congested calendar rewards.
2 Arsenal	82	The best first eleven in the league. Two points short if that eleven gets tested.
3 Liverpool	70	Third best expected goal difference last season. Iraola’s first year is the brake.
4 Manchester United	68	Plus 0.38 expected goal difference. The defence is what keeps them out of the title race.
5 Chelsea	66	Fifth on expected goals, tenth in the table. The correction arrives, two points too late.
6 Brighton and Hove Albion	58	Solid underlying numbers and no European calendar to manage.
7 Newcastle United	57	Seventh on expected goals and twelfth in the table. They climb.
8 AFC Bournemouth	55	Sold down again, and the shape still produces more than the squad list suggests.
9 Aston Villa	52	Fourth on results, tenth on expected goals. A gap that wide closes downwards.
10 Fulham	52	Level on points, behind on goal difference. Mid-table is the level.
11 Tottenham Hotspur	50	Eleventh on expected goals, seventeenth in the table. A big climb from a low base.
12 Leeds United	48	Comfortable enough last season, and nothing in the numbers moves them.
13 Nottingham Forest	47	Fine margins either side of forty five points.
14 Crystal Palace	44	Cup pedigree, league consistency still missing.
15 Everton	41	Fifteenth again, which makes 12.00 to go down a fair price.
16 Coventry City	39	The promoted club we keep up. Their Championship baseline says they can score.
17 Brentford	38	Ninth on results, sixteenth on expected goals, 0.17 goals a game more than they deserved.
18 Sunderland	35	Our biggest disagreement with the market. Seventh on 54 points, seventeenth on expected goal difference.
19 Ipswich Town	31	Second favourite to go down at 1.83, and we agree.
20 Hull City	27	Smallest wage bill, up through the play-offs, 1.17 to go straight back.

Title Race Prediction

Manchester City 84, Arsenal 82, Liverpool 70. Two points at the top and a twelve point drop to third.

Start with last season. Arsenal’s expected goal difference was plus 0.75 a match, City’s plus 0.72. Three hundredths of a goal across 38 games, and Arsenal won by seven points. That’s not a gap in quality, it’s a gap in outcomes.

The title turns on one variable, and it isn’t tactics. It’s availability. Both play an eight game Champions League phase and hit blocks of three matches in seven days from December through March.

Arsenal’s first eleven is better than City’s. Their twelfth to eighteenth players are not. When recovery time runs short, the side that rotates hardest loses the least. City can change eight outfield players and still field a top-four team.

Give Arsenal a clean injury season and we’re wrong.

Top Four and Champions League Places

Our four are Manchester City, Arsenal, Liverpool and Manchester United. Chelsea miss out by two points.

Liverpool are in on the numbers rather than on feel. Fifth on 60 points, third best expected goal difference at plus 0.42 a match. A side that good doesn’t finish fifth twice. The brake is Iraola’s first season, which is why they’re third.

Chelsea are the ones we leave out, and it’s close. Fifth on expected goal difference, tenth in the table, so a correction is due. Points dropped learning Alonso’s shape in September don’t come back in April.

Manchester United take fourth on expected goal difference of plus 0.38. The gap is at the back. Arsenal conceded 0.95 expected goals a match last season, City 1.11, United 1.36. Close that and they’re a problem for everyone.

Premier League Relegation Odds and Predictions

Hull City are 1.17 in the Premier League relegation odds and that looks right. Up through the play-offs from sixth, smallest wage bill in the division, and they open at home to Manchester United.

Where the Premier League relegation betting odds and our model split is Sunderland. The market has them 4.50, a one-in-five shot. We make it better than even money. Sunderland finished seventh on 54 points with an expected goal difference of minus 0.38, seventeenth best in the league. Only the relegated three were worse, and a gap that wide doesn’t survive a second season.

Brentford at 10.00 are the other one to watch. Ninth place, sixteenth on expected goal difference, and 0.17 goals a game more than they deserved. Seventeenth for us, surviving only just.

So Sunderland go down with Ipswich Town and Hull City, and Coventry City are the promoted club we keep up.

Three clubs go down, eight have a real claim, and the latest Premier League relegation odds move more than any other market on this page. Every Premier League relegation odds checker will show you the same favourites, so treat our numbers, and any Premier League relegation predictor, as a probability rather than a verdict.

Club	Relegation price	Our probability
Hull City	1.17	80%
Ipswich Town	1.83	64%
Sunderland	4.50	56%
Coventry City	1.80	40%
Brentford	10.00	30%
Everton	12.00	16%
Crystal Palace	7.00	8%
Nottingham Forest	11.00	4%

Premier League Odds for Top Scorer and the Golden Boot

Erling Haaland is 1.67 for the Golden Boot after 27 goals from 26.59 expected goals, his third in four years. He’ll probably win again. That doesn’t make it a bet.

This market prices finishing ability, the part everyone already knows. What decides a Golden Boot is minutes. Haaland generated 0.81 expected goals per 90 last season, the best rate in the league, across 35 appearances. If he plays 38 nobody catches him. The whole market is a bet on him not playing 38.

So we’re on Igor Thiago at 13.00. Second in the league for expected goals on 20.42, he outscored that figure with 22 and played all 38 games. Brentford have nobody else. Our soccer injury data makes the same point every season. Availability separates the top of this market from the rest, not finishing.

Alexander Isak at 9.00 is the one we’d avoid. He didn’t make the league’s top 25 for expected goals last season, so that price trades on reputation. A striker who misses ten games can’t win a Golden Boot, whatever the finishing looks like when he plays.

Player	Irish price	Our read
Erling Haaland	1.67	0.81 xG per 90, the best in the league. Unbackable at the price.
Alexander Isak	9.00	Outside the top 25 for xG last season. Reputation pricing.
Igor Thiago	13.00	Our pick. Second in the league for xG and 38 of 38 games played.
João Pedro	15.00	14.62 xG, and Chelsea spread their goals around more than Brighton did.
Ollie Watkins	15.00	17.69 xG but only 16 goals. The chances came, the finishing didn’t.

How We Make Our Premier League Predictions

Our Premier League predictions come out of a model I run and then argue with.

It starts with expected goals for and against, which we take from FootyStats and check against FBref, across two seasons, weighted toward the most recent. It adjusts for squad turnover in euro and minutes lost, fixture congestion, injury history by player and position, and home and away splits. Promoted clubs get their own baseline from Championship performance, because feeding a club Premier League data it never generated produces nonsense.

Then the congestion layer, which is the part no affiliate site can copy. Topend Sports has published soccer fitness testing and conditioning data since 1997, and it tells you what a squad can repeat and how long recovery takes between matches. When a club plays three games in seven days, repeated sprint capacity drops before technical quality does. That’s why thin squads underperform their expected goals in December and March, and why we have City ahead of Arsenal. Our page on soccer fitness and conditioning demands sets out the numbers, and the Yo-Yo intermittent recovery test measures the capacity that gets drained.

Stefan Peric

Sports Betting Writer

I write and edit sportsbook reviews, betting guides and match predictions for Topend Sports, using a law background to turn the fine print into plain English, and I personally fact-check every review before it goes live.

I test the bookmakers myself instead of reading their terms pages. We tested every source licensed to take bets in Ireland during the GRAI transition. From my own accounts this month:

• I deposited €50 by debit card and it cleared in 40 seconds.
• I placed a €10 in-play bet and the price refreshed in 4 seconds.
• I withdrew €120 back to the same debit card and it arrived in 19 hours.
• Verification wanted a passport photo and a utility bill, and cleared in 3 hours.
• I asked live chat how outright bets settle after a points deduction and got a person in 2 minutes.

Our Latest Premier League Predictions

Betting on the Premier League in Ireland

Ireland changed regulator in July 2026. The Gambling Regulatory Authority of Ireland began issuing remote betting licences, and the practical effect on you is smaller than the headlines suggested but not nothing.

Any operator taking bets from Ireland now has to be licensed here. Paddy Power, bet365, William Hill and Ladbrokes were among the first. Betfred paused its Irish operation rather than finish the process. So check the site you’re on against the Revenue Commissioners’ register of licensed bookmakers, which runs through the transition, and the GRAI register, which covers remote licences. If it appears on neither, your answer is no.

Credit card funding of gambling accounts has been banned in Ireland since February 2026. Debit card, bank transfer and the usual wallets still work. A site offering you a credit card at the deposit screen isn’t following Irish rules, which is the fastest check you can run on any operator.

Ireland has no national self-exclusion register, and a register run in another country will not cover an Irish account. Self-exclusion works operator by operator, so you set it up with each book separately. Gambling Care Ireland will walk you through it if you hold several accounts.

The English Premier League odds on GB sites are often the same numbers, but the account terms behind them are not. Every price here comes from a book licensed to take your money in Ireland. New betting sites in Ireland covers who has arrived since the transition, and the same logic applies to Irish horse racing betting and GAA football betting.

Licensing and Player Safety

Every bookmaker named on this page holds a licence to take bets in Ireland. We check that against the Revenue Commissioners’ register and the GRAI register before a brand goes into any table, and recheck when we refresh prices. A brand we cannot find on either register stays off the page, even where its price is better.

Licensed books have to give you control tools. Deposit limits, loss limits, time-outs and account closure on request are all standard. Set the limit when you open the account, not after a bad weekend, because the limit you set calmly is the one that holds.

Self-exclusion here is arranged with each operator individually, so a real break means setting it on every account you hold rather than one. A deposit limit takes effect immediately, and a time-out is easier to reverse than a closure, which is why both exist. If you are not sure which you need, start with the shorter time-out.

If betting has stopped being fun, help is free and confidential. Gambling Care Ireland runs the National Gambling Helpline on 1800 936 725, and you can reach them at gamblingcare.ie. Extern Problem Gambling Service, Dunlewey Addiction Services and Gamblers Anonymous Ireland also provide support. Our responsible gambling page has more.

You must be 18 or over to bet.

Premier League Predictions FAQ for 2026

What is the supercomputer prediction of the Premier League?

Most are season simulations run on expected goals, the same input we use. Ours makes Manchester City champions on 84 points with Arsenal second on 82. Models differ mainly in how they weight squad turnover, which is why their answers vary more than the label suggests.

Can AI accurately predict football games?

Over a season, reasonably well. Over one match, no. A model prices probability, it doesn’t know the team news that lands an hour before kick-off. Ours had Sunderland in the bottom three last season and they finished seventh.

Who is favourite to win the Premier League?

Arsenal, at 2.50 with bookmakers licensed in Ireland. Manchester City are next at 3.75. We disagree with that order and make City champions by two points, on squad depth through a congested calendar.

What are the best Premier League odds in Ireland?

That depends on the market and the day. Prices here are checked weekly against books licensed in Ireland. Compare at least two before backing anything, because outright prices vary far more between books than match prices do.

Who is predicted to be relegated?

We have Sunderland, Ipswich Town and Hull City going down. The market makes all three promoted clubs favourites instead. Our disagreement is Sunderland, seventh on results last season and seventeenth on expected goal difference.

Is online betting legal in Ireland?

Yes, with a licensed operator. Since July 2026 remote licences come from the Gambling Regulatory Authority of Ireland. Check any operator against the GRAI register or the Revenue Commissioners’ register before you deposit. You must be 18 or over.