Arsenal retain the title. Manchester City, Manchester United and Chelsea complete the top four. Coventry City, Ipswich Town and Hull City go down.
Deposit £10
And get 50 Free Spins
#AD 18+ | New customers | More Wagering, banking, Terms & conditions apply | Play Responsibly | www.gambleaware.org
Receive up to £20
in Free Bets
18+ | New customers only. | Min. deposit: £20. Min. wager £20 at min odds 1/1 (2.00). Max free bet amount £20. | Free bet is not valid for horse racing. | Free bet token credited within 24 hours, valid 14 days. | T&C apply. | www.gambleaware.org
Deposit & Bet £10
Get £30 Free Bet
18+ | New Players Only. | T&C apply. | www.gambleaware.org
Bet £10
Get £30
#AD 18+ | New players only | T&C apply. | www.gambleaware.org
Get up to £10
in Free Bets
18+ | New Players Only. Free bet - one-time stake of £40, min odds 1.5, stake not returned. | www.gambleaware.org
Receive up to £30
in Free Bets
18+ | New customers on mobile only | £10 minimum bet | Play Responsibly | www.gambleaware.org
Bet £10
& Get £10
18+ | New Players Only | Gambling Can Be Addictive | www.gambleaware.org
Bet £10
& Get £30
18+ | New Players Only | Gambling Can Be Addictive | www.gambleaware.org
Get up to £30
in Free Bets
18+ | New Players Only | Gambling Can Be Addictive | www.gambleaware.org
Get up to £30
in Free Bets
18+ | New Players Only | Gambling Can Be Addictive | www.gambleaware.org
Those are our Premier League predictions for 2026 in one line. Every Premier League prediction here comes from a points model you can check, not a columnist’s hunch. We rate each club on expected points, squad turnover, manager change, European commitments and fixture congestion, then project a total across all 38 games. Last season’s most quoted supercomputer got the champion wrong, so we publish our error count and you can judge this one the same way. We rebuild the table monthly and the tips weekly, and the Premier League betting hub covers the rest.
The model runs on public data. Expected goals and points come from Understat, squad news from club channels, fixtures from premierleague.com. Odds are decimal, from UKGC-licensed bookmakers only, checked against the Gambling Commission’s public register before publishing. Some links earn us a commission, which never changes a prediction. 18+, BeGambleAware.org.
What Do Our Premier League Predictions Say About the Title Race
Our Premier League predictions make Arsenal champions again, but not by much. Arsenal are 6/4 to retain the title, Manchester City are 11/4 and Liverpool are next at 5/1. With decimal prices, the shorter the number the likelier the outcome.
The variable that decides it is availability, not spending. Arsenal won last season’s title by seven points while Bukayo Saka, Martin Odegaard and Kai Havertz all missed long spells. City have lost Rodri to Barcelona and replaced Pep Guardiola with Enzo Maresca, and a new manager with a rebuilt midfield usually costs points in August.
Two things changed since the fixtures came out. Bruno Guimaraes joined Arsenal from Newcastle for 75 million pounds, and Liverpool sold Mohamed Salah, which is why our Premier League prediction drops them out of the top four.
The public supercomputer had Sunderland 20th last August. They finished seventh. That 13-place miss is why I now weight promoted club recruitment above Championship points.
What Does Our Premier League Prediction Table Look Like for 2026
Here’s the full Premier League prediction table for 2026, with a projected total for all 20 clubs and the change on last season’s finish. Clubs run from our projected champions down to the three we have going back to the Championship, and we make the case for the closest calls straight afterwards.
Read every number as a central estimate, not an answer. Last August’s public supercomputer missed by 10 points a club across the top six. Ours will miss too, and we tell you by how much.
The 20 totals add up to 1,036 points, exactly what the league produced last season. A table summing to 1,100 is quietly predicting more wins than the fixture list allows. Nine clubs also start with a new manager, the most since 1946/47, which pushes our Premier League predictions further from last season’s finish than usual. Three calls stand out:
- Liverpool miss the top four despite being third favourite.
- Chelsea take the place instead, up from tenth.
- Sunderland shed 13 points, into a relegation fight.
| Predicted finish | Points (change) | Verdict |
|---|---|---|
|
1. Arsenal |
82 (-3) |
Champions |
|
2. Manchester City |
78 (no change) |
Runners-up |
|
3. Manchester United |
67 (-4) |
Top four, no Europe |
|
4. Chelsea |
66 (+14) |
Top four, no Europe |
|
5. Liverpool |
62 (+2) |
Misses the top four |
|
6. Aston Villa |
60 (-5) |
Europe again |
|
7. Tottenham Hotspur |
55 (+14) |
Biggest riser |
|
8. Brentford |
53 (no change) |
Steady |
|
9. Brighton and Hove Albion |
51 (-2) |
Squad churn |
|
10. Everton |
50 (+1) |
Mid-table |
|
11. Bournemouth |
49 (-8) |
Europa League drag |
|
12. Leeds United |
48 (+1) |
Survives comfortably |
|
13. Fulham |
47 (-5) |
Spending backed |
|
14. Crystal Palace |
46 (+1) |
Thursday nights bite |
|
15. Newcastle United |
45 (-4) |
Spine sold |
|
16. Nottingham Forest |
43 (-1) |
Glasner’s first season |
|
17. Sunderland |
41 (-13) |
Biggest faller |
|
18. Coventry City |
36 (promoted) |
Relegated |
|
19. Ipswich Town |
32 (promoted) |
Relegated |
|
20. Hull City |
25 (promoted) |
Relegated |
How Close Is the Title Race in Our Forecast
Arsenal win it by four points, tighter than the market prices. One injury cluster in either squad decides the title.
Manchester City have the better raw squad. Gianluigi Donnarumma, Marc Guehi and Elliot Anderson arrived, Erling Haaland scored 27 league goals last season, and Maresca inherits a first team most clubs would swap for. What they don’t have is Rodri, or a manager who has run a title race here.
Arsenal’s edge is continuity. Same manager, same spine, one clean upgrade in Guimaraes. Both clubs play Champions League football, and William Saliba carries a back problem from the World Cup. Squad depth against fixture congestion separates these two, not spending.
Which Club Misses Out on the Top Four
Liverpool miss out, and it’s the clearest disagreement between our Premier League predictions and the market.
The case for them is the badge and the 5/1 price. The case against is the data. Liverpool finished fifth on 60 points against 61.5 expected, so last season was fair on them. Since then they’ve sold Salah to Trabzonspor, lost Ibrahima Konate on a free and replaced Arne Slot with Andoni Iraola. Victor Munoz is a good signing. He’s not 20 league goals.
Chelsea take the place instead. No club in last season’s top half finished further below its expected points, 52 against 58.9, and clubs in that position usually correct. They’ve added Morgan Rogers and Maxence Lacroix and play no European football, worth points across a 38-game run. Xabi Alonso inherits more than Iraola does.
How Do the Three Promoted Clubs Fare
All three go straight back down. Our Premier League predictions agree with the market here, which isn’t often the case on this page.
Coventry come closest. Frank Lampard has continuity, a full pre-season and Aurele Amenda from Eintracht Frankfurt at the back, and we give them 36 points against a survival line of 41, about two wins short. Ipswich swapped Kieran McKenna for Gary O’Neil and are light on top-flight minutes. Hull did the least business.
All three promoted clubs went down in 2023/24 and again in 2024/25. Last season broke the run, with Sunderland seventh and Leeds fourteenth, but our numbers say that was an exception.
Who Goes Down and What Do the Premier League Relegation Odds Say
Our Premier League relegation predictions have Coventry, Ipswich and Hull going down. The Premier League relegation odds agree, so the useful question is where the market has it wrong.
| Club and our predicted finish | Relegation odds | Our probability |
|---|---|---|
|
Hull City, 20th |
1/4 |
78% |
|
Ipswich Town, 19th |
4/6 |
66% |
|
Coventry City, 18th |
4/6 |
55% |
|
Sunderland, 17th |
3/1 |
33% |
|
Nottingham Forest, 16th |
8/1 |
20% |
|
Newcastle United, 15th |
9/1 |
18% |
Odds as on 17 August 2026.
Newcastle are 9/1 and we make them 18 per cent, nearly double the market’s read. They sold Guimaraes to Arsenal, Sandro Tonali to Tottenham and Anthony Gordon to Barcelona, taking summer sales past 240 million, and Matthias Jaissle has never managed in England. One honest caveat. Last season’s expected points rate them nearer 55 than the 49 they finished on. We’re overriding that, because no squad loses this much and stays the same.
Nottingham Forest are 8/1 and we make them 20 per cent. Oliver Glasner’s first season, Elliot Anderson sold to Manchester City, and the worst expected goals against of any club that stayed up, 64.7.
Sunderland survive on the final day. Our survival line sits at 41 and we project them 41. They beat their expected points by almost 12 last season, the widest gap outside the top four, and now carry a Europa League campaign. If you’re filling in a Premier League relegation predictor, Sunderland is the row most likely to move. Their 3/1 implies 25 per cent against our 33, and Premier League relegation betting rarely offers a cleaner example of value against the market.
Who Will Win the Premier League and What Do the Latest Odds Say
Arsenal will win the Premier League. Our model gives them 82 points and a four-point margin over Manchester City.
These are the Premier League odds winner prices two days before kick-off. The market agrees on the favourite and disagrees on the order behind him, and the Premier League odds 26/27 have barely moved since the fixtures came out.
| Club | Outright odds | Our projected points |
|---|---|---|
|
Arsenal |
6/4 |
82 |
|
Manchester City |
11/4 |
78 |
|
Liverpool |
5/1 |
62 |
|
Manchester United |
13/2 |
67 |
|
Chelsea |
8/1 |
66 |
|
Tottenham Hotspur |
20/1 |
55 |
|
Aston Villa |
33/1 |
60 |
Odds as on 19 August 2026.
The latest Premier League odds have Liverpool third favourite at 5/1, while our table puts Manchester United and Chelsea above them. That’s the disagreement worth acting on. If Liverpool can replace Salah’s goals from inside the squad, 5/1 is fair. If they can’t, Manchester United at 13/2 is the better-shaped bet. Our bookmaker reviews cover how each UKGC-licensed book settles.
Three questions come up more than any others. Will Arsenal win the Premier League? On our numbers yes, at every rebuild since the fixtures came out. Can Arsenal win the Premier League without a fit William Saliba? Probably not, because centre-back cover is the thinnest part of the squad. Can Man City win the Premier League in Enzo Maresca’s first season? Yes, and 11/4 is fair.
Arsenal at 6/4 implies 40 per cent before the margin and our model agrees, so we claim no edge on the favourite. The value in the Premier League odds outright, and in the Premier League odds to win, sits further down the card.
New to season-long markets? Our guide to futures betting starts from scratch.
Who Wins the Premier League Top Scorer Race in 2026
Erling Haaland wins it again. He’s 4/6, he scored 27 last season and he’s won three of the last four Golden Boots, so our Premier League top scorer prediction is the favourite at a price nobody enjoys.
The bet we’d rather have is Igor Thiago at 12/1. A Golden Boot race is settled by who’s still on the pitch in April. Thiago scored 22 last season for a Brentford side with no European football and no reason to rest him. Haaland plays a Champions League campaign under a new manager. Minutes are the variable, which is why we read this market through availability rather than talent, and through our work on injury prevention in soccer.
What Are the Premier League Top Scorer Odds
Here are the five shortest prices, with what each player actually scored last season.
| Player and club | Top scorer odds | Goals last season |
|---|---|---|
|
Erling Haaland, Manchester City |
4/6 |
27 |
|
Alexander Isak, Liverpool |
9/1 |
3 |
|
Igor Thiago, Brentford |
12/1 |
22 |
|
Joao Pedro, Chelsea |
16/1 |
15 |
|
Viktor Gyokeres, Arsenal |
20/1 |
14 |
The Isak row is the one to sit with. He’s 9/1 off a season of 699 minutes and three goals. Liverpool sold Salah so the chances will come, but a striker priced that short after that season is paid for reputation. Premier League top scorer betting rewards minutes more reliably than ability, and our Premier League top scorer predictions put Thiago second and Isak fifth.
What Are Our Latest Premier League Tips and Predictions for This Weekend
Premier League
vs
Arsenal to Win
Premier League
vs
Manchester United to Win
Premier League
vs
Sunderland AFC to Win
Premier League
vs
Everton FC to Win
Premier League
vs
Nottingham Forest to Win
Premier League
vs
Brentford FC to Win
Premier League
vs
Manchester City to Win
Premier League
vs
Draw
Premier League
vs
Liverpool to Win
Premier League
vs
Chelsea FC to Win
Which Bookmakers Are Licensed and What Player Safety Tools Do They Offer
Every bookmaker named on this page holds a licence from the UK Gambling Commission. We check each against the Commission’s public licensee register before a price goes live.
Offshore books get no space here. That isn’t commercial. It’s the only way a UK reader has recourse if a settlement or withdrawal goes wrong.
Every UKGC-licensed operator offers the same safer gambling tools, worth setting up before you stake anything:
- Deposit limits cap what you can pay in per day, week or month.
- Loss limits do the same for what you can lose.
- Time-outs lock the account for 24 hours up to six weeks.
- Reality checks interrupt a session to show how long you’ve played.
- Account closure is permanent.
For help away from the operator, GamCare runs the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133, free and open around the clock. GAMSTOP blocks every UKGC-licensed site at once. BeGambleAware carries the self-assessment tools, and our responsible gambling guide covers the rest. 18+.
What Else Do People Ask About Premier League Predictions
Who is predicted to win the Premier League?
Arsenal. Our model projects 82 points and a four-point margin over Manchester City, and the market agrees, pricing Arsenal 6/4 and City 11/4. Manchester United and Chelsea follow, and we have Liverpool fifth.
What are the Premier League predictions for next season?
Arsenal champions, with Manchester City, Manchester United and Chelsea completing the top four, and Coventry, Ipswich and Hull relegated. Projected points for all 20 clubs sit in the table above, rebuilt monthly.
What is the supercomputer prediction of the Premier League in 2026?
Supercomputer is a marketing word for a simulation model. The best known public one had Liverpool champions and Sunderland bottom last August. Liverpool finished fifth, Sunderland seventh. Ask what a model got wrong before what it predicts.
Who is most likely to win the Premier League in 2026?
Arsenal, on roughly 40 per cent. That is what 6/4 implies before the bookmaker’s margin, and where our model lands. Manchester City are next on about 27 per cent, and no other club reaches 17.
Who is predicted to be relegated from the Premier League?
Coventry, Ipswich and Hull, the three promoted clubs. We give Hull 78 per cent, Ipswich 66 and Coventry 55. Sunderland at 33 per cent are the likeliest established club to go, though we have them surviving.
How accurate are Premier League predictions?
Less accurate than they look. The best known public forecast last August missed by an average of four places and 10.1 points a club, widening to 13.5 across the bottom six. Read any predicted table as a range.