With the Olympic Games starting now, I feel like it is time for me to make my predictions for the final medal tally. It seems like everyone else is doing it. I have discussed a few prediction models on this site that use science and results from recent competitions. My prediction is based on something a little less scientific, my gut feeling and reflection, so don’t place too much emphasis on it. It will be interesting to see how my list performs compared to the other predictions, only time and a bit of number crunching will tell.
Here is my final top 10 predictions for gold medals won:
- 40 USA
- 33 China
- 26 Great Britain
- 24 Russia
- 15 Germany
- 11 Japan
- 10 Australia
- 10 Italy
- 9 France
- 8 South Korea
| my order prediction | predicted medals | actual position | actual golds | |
| 1 | USA | 40 | 1 | 46 |
| 2 | China | 33 | 2 | 38 |
| 3 | Great Britain | 26 | 3 | 29 |
| 4 | Russia | 24 | 4 | 24 |
| 5 | Germany | 15 | 6 | 11 |
| 6 | Japan | 11 | 11 | 7 |
| 7 | Australia | 10 | 10 | 7 |
| 8 | Italy | 10 | 8 | 8 |
| 9 | France | 9 | 7 | 11 |
| 10 | South Korea | 8 | 5 | 13 |



You would be surprised about some of the countries that have once participated at the Olympic Games. Regions such as Saarland and Bohemia participated at previous Games, but no longer exist independently. The Saar existed from 1947 to 1956 in part of Western Germany that was occupied by France, and only competed at one Olympics in 1952 before joining Germany. Bohemia athletes competed at the Olympic Games between 1900-1912. After World War I, Bohemia became part of the new Czechoslovakia, which itself lasted until 1993 when it split into the Czech Republic and Slovakia.







