The 2026 National Bank Open has lost much of its star power after a remarkable wave of withdrawals reshaped the ATP field just weeks before the year’s final Grand Slam. Among the biggest absentees are world No. 1 Jannik Sinner, reigning US Open tennis champion Carlos Alcaraz, 24-time major winner Novak Djokovic, and multiple-time ATP title winner Alexander Bublik.
Their decisions have transformed the Canadian Open tennis tournament in Montreal while raising an even bigger question: will skipping a Masters 1000 event improve—or damage—their chances of lifting the trophy at US Open 2026?
The unprecedented list of Canadian Open tennis withdrawals has also reignited debate over the ATP calendar. With the expanded two-week Masters 1000 format placing additional physical demands on players, many are choosing recovery over competition during one of the busiest stretches of the season. While Montreal’s field has undoubtedly been weakened, the absent stars are gambling that arriving fresher in New York will outweigh the loss of valuable match practice before the final Grand Slam of the year.
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Why Are So Many Stars Skipping the National Bank Open?
The unusually long list of withdrawals has become the biggest storyline of this year’s National Bank Open. Instead of the traditional battle between the ATP Tour’s biggest names, Montreal will be missing eight players from the top tier of the rankings, dramatically changing the tournament’s competitive landscape. With several leading contenders absent, Alexander Zverev enters the event as the top seed and one of the leading favorites to lift the trophy.
The growing number of Canadian Open tennis withdrawals has also intensified criticism of the ATP calendar. Since Masters 1000 tournaments adopted an expanded two-week format, players have faced longer events, fewer recovery days, and an increasingly demanding schedule between Wimbledon and the North American hard-court swing. As a result, many players and analysts have questioned whether the current calendar forces athletes to choose between competing in Montreal and arriving physically prepared for the season’s final Grand Slam.
For Sinner, Djokovic, Alcaraz, and Bublik, however, the reasons behind their withdrawals are far from identical. Some are managing heavy workloads after deep runs at Wimbledon, others are recovering from injury, while some are simply trying to peak at the right moment. What unites all four decisions is a shared objective: arriving in New York in the best possible condition for the US Open tennis draw, where physical freshness can be just as important as form. If the strategy pays off, missing Montreal may ultimately be remembered as a calculated sacrifice rather than a missed opportunity.
Why the Top Players Are Missing the National Bank Open
| Player | Reason for withdrawal | Expected US Open impact |
|---|---|---|
|
Jannik Sinner |
Recovery after a demanding season |
Fresher for New York with reduced match practice |
|
Novak Djokovic |
Workload management |
Better physical condition for another Grand Slam bid |
|
Carlos Alcaraz |
Recovering from a right wrist injury |
Needs Cincinnati to regain match rhythm |
|
Alexander Bublik |
Rest before the hard-court swing |
Opportunity to arrive refreshed for the US Open |
Jannik Sinner: Can Rest Strengthen His US Open Bid?
For Jannik Sinner, missing the National Bank Open appears to be a strategic decision rather than a cause for concern. The world No. 1 arrives at this stage of the season after another demanding campaign, highlighted by his Wimbledon triumph and a schedule that has consistently taken him deep into the biggest tournaments. Instead of adding another Masters 1000 event to an already heavy workload, Sinner has opted to prioritize recovery before the North American hard-court season reaches its climax.
The decision naturally raises the question: is Sinner playing in the US Open? Based on current expectations, the answer is yes. His withdrawal from Montreal is understood to be a precaution designed to ensure he arrives in New York fully recovered rather than carrying accumulated fatigue. That approach reflects lessons learned earlier in the season after Sinner endured a physically demanding run at Roland Garros before going on to win Wimbledon.
From a competitive perspective, Sinner US Open expectations remain as high as ever. Assuming he returns at the Cincinnati Masters as planned, he should still have enough match practice before the final Grand Slam of the year. Skipping one tournament may leave him slightly short of competitive rhythm, but arriving physically fresh could prove far more valuable over the course of a two-week major, where recovery often becomes just as important as shot-making.
As a result, Sinner is still expected to feature prominently among the US Open favorites 2026. His recent Grand Slam performances, combined with his consistency on hard courts, mean few players will welcome seeing him in the draw. Whether the decision to skip Montreal ultimately proves beneficial will only become clear in New York, but the calculated focus on preservation rather than preparation could significantly improve his chances of adding another major title. If he succeeds, he will further strengthen his place among the sport’s modern champions alongside the legends featured in Grand Slam men’s singles title winners.
Novak Djokovic: Chasing One More Historic US Open
Novak Djokovic’s withdrawal from the National Bank Open is less about missing a Masters 1000 event and more about maximizing his chances at the season’s biggest prize. With 24 Djokovic Grand Slam titles already to his name, the Serbian has increasingly tailored his schedule around the four majors, carefully balancing match practice with recovery. At 39, preserving his body for another deep run in New York appears to be the priority rather than adding another title to his collection.
That makes the Djokovic US Open campaign one of the tournament’s biggest storylines. Assuming he returns at the Cincinnati Masters, he should still have an opportunity to sharpen his game before the final Grand Slam of the season. A healthy Djokovic remains one of the toughest opponents on any surface, particularly over best-of-five sets. If he can add another title in New York, he would further extend one of the greatest records in tennis history. Djokovic has enjoyed remarkable success across every major, including Melbourne.
Carlos Alcaraz: Will His Wrist Be Ready for a US Open Title Defense?
Unlike Sinner and Djokovic, Carlos Alcaraz isn’t skipping Montreal by choice. The Spaniard continues to recover from an injury sustained to his right wrist earlier this season, making his withdrawal from the National Bank Open a necessary step in his rehabilitation rather than a strategic scheduling decision. His team still expects him to return at the Cincinnati Masters, giving him one final opportunity to build match fitness before defending his title in New York.
The Alcaraz injury update remains one of the biggest storylines heading into the hard-court swing. While the Alcaraz wrist injury has shown encouraging signs of progress, recovering physically is only part of the challenge. After several weeks away from competition, regaining timing and confidence against the world’s best players will be just as important if he is to defend his crown successfully.
The good news for fans is that the Carlos Alcaraz US Open campaign is still expected to go ahead. If he returns at full fitness, he will remain one of the leading contenders despite the lack of match play in Montreal. Tennis history has shown that defending champions can quickly rediscover their best level, and Alcaraz will hope to add another chapter to the list of US Open men’s singles winners.
Alexander Bublik: A Quiet but Significant Withdrawal
Alexander Bublik’s decision to skip the National Bank Open attracted less attention than the withdrawals of Sinner, Djokovic, and Alcaraz, but it could still prove significant. The Kazakh has shown he can trouble the world’s best on hard courts when fully fit, making recovery a logical priority before US Open 2026. While he may not start among the favorites, arriving in New York refreshed could improve his chances of making a deep run. Explore more tournament coverage in our Tennis events hub.
Will Skipping Montreal Help or Hurt Their US Open Chances?
There is no universal answer to whether skipping the National Bank Open will improve a player’s chances in New York. Some players benefit from extra match practice before a Grand Slam, while others perform better after reducing their workload. This year’s withdrawals highlight the delicate balance between maintaining competitive rhythm and avoiding the physical fatigue that can build up during the North American hard-court swing.
For Sinner and Djokovic, the calculation appears straightforward. Both have shown they can perform at their best after carefully managing their schedules, making recovery a higher priority than another week of competition. Alcaraz faces a different challenge, as his preparation depends less on rest than on how quickly he can regain confidence following his injury. Bublik, meanwhile, will hope that stepping away from Montreal allows him to arrive fresher for the final major of the season.
The answers will only emerge once the US Open tennis draw is released and the tournament begins. Until then, the four withdrawals remain calculated risks rather than guarantees of success. If even one of these players lifts the trophy in New York, the decision to miss Montreal could be viewed as another sign that the modern tennis calendar increasingly rewards quality preparation over quantity of matches. You can learn more about the sport’s four biggest events in our guide to the Grand Slam tournaments.
How the Withdrawals Could Change the US Open Odds
The absence of several leading players from Montreal is unlikely to dramatically reshape the US Open tennis odds, but it could influence how sportsbooks assess the final Grand Slam once the hard-court swing resumes. A strong performance in Cincinnati could shorten a player’s price, while another withdrawal or injury setback may have the opposite effect. With several contenders taking different preparation routes, bookmakers are likely to continue adjusting their markets right up until the tournament begins.
Despite skipping the National Bank Open, Sinner, Alcaraz, and Djokovic are all expected to remain among the US Open favorites 2026, assuming they arrive in New York fully fit. Their proven ability to perform over five sets means one missed Masters 1000 event is unlikely to outweigh years of Grand Slam success. The biggest uncertainty surrounds match sharpness, particularly for players returning from injury or extended breaks from competition.
For bettors, the key will be looking beyond the outright market. The US Open tennis draw, player fitness, and early-round matchups often have as much influence on a player’s title chances as pre-tournament odds. Those planning to follow the action can also explore our US tennis betting guide for an overview of the main markets, betting strategies, and tournament coverage ahead of Flushing Meadows.
US Open Readiness at a Glance
| Player | Expected Cincinnati return | Biggest question before New York |
|---|---|---|
|
Jannik Sinner |
Yes |
Will the extra rest outweigh the lack of match play? |
|
Novak Djokovic |
Yes |
Can careful scheduling deliver another Grand Slam title? |
|
Carlos Alcaraz |
Expected |
Will the wrist hold up over two weeks? |
|
Alexander Bublik |
Expected |
Can a lighter schedule improve his consistency? |
Conclusion
The Canadian Open tennis withdrawals have undoubtedly weakened one of the ATP Tour’s biggest summer events, but they could also have a significant impact on the season’s final Grand Slam. For Sinner, Djokovic, Alcaraz, and Bublik, missing Montreal is a calculated gamble that prioritizes long-term success over short-term results. Whether that strategy proves successful will become clear at US Open 2026, where fitness, form, and the US Open tennis draw will ultimately determine who lifts the trophy. To explore the tournament’s rich legacy before this year’s edition begins, take a look at the history of the US Open.
