Analysis of the medal count predictions for the 2018 Winter Olympics

There were many predictions about which nation would top the 2018 Winter Olympic Games medal tally. Now that the actual results are known, the accuracy of the predictions can be assessed. We are using our own analysis method to calculate a single percent accuracy score. It basically calculates the average percentage difference between their prediction and the actual results for the final top five results.

Prediction of gold medals to be won in 2018

Most of the eight predictions for total gold medals to be won at the 2018 Winter Olympics correctly picked the top four nations. Five out of eight correctly predicted thsat the USA would win 9 medals. Fifth placed The Netherlands were the surprise country, winning more gold medals than all predictions. The predictions by Cazeneuve proved to be most accurate overall (same as in 2014).

TABLE of top 5 countries with predicted GOLD MEDALS won (showing percentage difference)

rank actual result Cazeneuve Wall St Journal VMT Tumblr Groningen Sciencing AAP Barra
1 Norway (14) 17 (+21%) 12 (-14%) 13 (-7%) 17 (+21%) 9 (-36%) 16 (+14%) 21 (+50%) 11 (-21%)
2 Germany (14) 15 (+7%) 13 (-7%) 14 (0%) 14 (0%) 11 (-21%) 10 (-29%) 15 (+7%) 8 (-43%)
3 Canada (11) 9 (-18%) 11 (0%) 7 (-36%) 7 (-36%) 12 (+9%) 10 (-9%) 14 (+27%) 1 (-91%)
4 USA  (9) 9 (0%) 11 (+22%) 11 (+22%) 9 (0%) 9 (0%) 9 (0%) 10 (+11%) 9 (0%)
5 Netherlands (8) 6 (-25%) 6 (-25%) 7 (-13%) 6 (-25%) 5 (-38%) 3 (-25%) 5 (-38%) 3 (-63%)
percent accuracy score 86% 86% 84% 83% 79% 77% 73% 56%

Prediction of total medals to be won in 2018

Only half of the predictions picked that Norway would top the total medal table. The actual total medal result for Norway was 39, a record for the most medals won at a single Winter Olympics. As the the most accurate overall, the prediction by Cazeneuve proved to be most accurate overall (same as for the gold medal predictions).

TABLE of top 5 countries with predicted TOTAL MEDALS won (showing percentage difference)

rank actual results Cazeneuve VMT Bleacher Report Wall St Journal Tumblr AAP Groningen Sciencing Barra
1 Norway (39) 42 (+8%) 41 (+5%) 37 (-5%) 36 (-8%) 42 (+8%) 41 (+5%) 28 (-28%) 36 (-8%) 19 (-51%)
2 Germany (31) 35 (+13%) 39 (+26%) 36 (+16%) 32 (+3%) 36 (+16%) 29 (-6?%) 28 (-10%) 42 (+35%) 18 (-42%)
3 Canada (29) 30 (+3%) 28 (-3%) 28 (-3%) 33 (+14%) 30 (+3%) 36 (+24%) 25 (-14%) 29 (0%) 11 (-62%)
4 USA  (23) 28 (+22%) 29 (+26%) 31 (+35%) 36 (+57%) 33 (+43%) 40 (+74%) 34 (+48%) 32 (+39%) 23 (0%)
5 Netherlands (20) 17 (-15%) 18 (-10%) 23 (+15%) 18 (-10%) 14 (-30%) 20 (0%) 18 (-10%) 11 (-45%) 15 (-25%)
percent accuracy score 88% 86% 85% 82% 80% 78% 78% 75% 64%

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