Predicted 2018 Medal Tally by Gracenote

Who will top the 2018 Winter Olympic Games medal tally? Each Olympics Games Gracenote Sports create a popular Virtual Medal Table (VMT) Olympic Games medal predictor. This predictor uses an algorithm to rank athletes and teams in each Olympic event based on recent competition results, and is regularly updated leading up to the Games.  The results are weighted for the strength of the competition, for example a World Championships has more influence than a World Cup event. They are also weighted for recency, so an event which took place last week is more important than one from several years ago.

We have decided to track the changes in the predictions in the lead up to the PyeongChang 2018 Winter Olympics, and to compare these to the actual medal tallies once the Games are completed. See how these predictions compare to other prediction models in 2018.

Earlier tables were created before the ban on Russia competing was announced. However, some Russian athletes will compete under the Olympic flag as independent athletes, so instead of Russia in 8th place on the latest list, it may be the independent athlete's group somewhere in there.

Prediction of total gold medals to be won in 2018

The Top 10 predictions over time.

rank 9 Feb '17 22 May '17 1 Nov '17 27 Dec '17 10 Jan '18 30 Jan '18 7 Feb '18
1 Norway (15) Germany (14 medals) Germany (14) Germany (14) Germany (14) Germany (15) Germany (14)
2 Germany (13) Norway (12) Norway (12) Norway (14) Norway (14) Norway (13) Norway (13)
3 USA (10) USA (10) USA (10) France (10) USA (10) USA (11) USA (11)
4 France (10) France (9) France (9) USA (9) France (9) France (10) France (10)
5 Canada (9) Austria (7) Austria (7) Canada (7) Canada (7) Canada (7) Canada (7)
6 Russia (6) Korea (7) Korea (7) Korea (7) Korea (7) Netherlands (7) Netherlands (7)
7 Netherlands (6) Netherlands (6) Netherlands (6) Austria (7) Netherlands (6) Korea (6) Austria (6)
8 South Korea (6) Russia (6) Russia (6) Netherlands (6) Austria (6) Austria (6) Korea (6)
9 Austria (5) China (6) China (6) China (6) China (6) China (6) China (6)
10 Czech Republic (5) Canada (5) Canada (5) Japan (4) Japan (4) Switzerland (4) Switzerland (4)

Prediction of total medals to be won in 2018

The above table order uses the standard Olympic method of ordering by the number of gold medals won. The USA traditionally base their medal tally on the total medals won. The table below is in the order of total medals won, which can make significant changes: e.g. from Nov 2017, Canada instead of being in 10th pace, will jump up to third, ahead of the USA.

rank 9 Feb 2017 22 May 2017 1 Nov 2017 27 Dec 2017 10 Jan '18 30 Jan '18 7 Feb '18
1 Norway (40 medals) Germany (35) Germany (35) Germany (40) Germany (40) Norway (40) Norway (41)
2 Germany (34) Norway (34) Norway (32) Norway (38) Norway (37) Germany (39) Germany (39)
3 USA (32) USA (32) Canada (31) Canada (32) Canada (33) USA (29) USA (29)
4 Canada (29) Canada (27) USA (29) USA (30) USA (29) Canada (29) Canada (28)
5 France (22) Russia (22) France (21) France (23) France (24) France (20) France (21)
6 Russia (22) France (20) Russia (21) Netherlands (19) Netherlands (18) Netherlands (18) Netherlands (18)
7 Netherlands (19) Netherlands (19) Netherlands (19) Japan (16) Austria (15) Switzerland (17) Switzerland (16)
8 Austria (15) Austria (15) Austria (14) Sweden (15) Japan (15) Austria (15) Austria (15)
9 Sweden (14) Switzerland (14) Austria (14) Sweden (14) Sweden (15) Sweden (15)
10 Switzerland (13) Sweden (14) Switzerland (13) Switzerland (12) Japan (14) Japan (14)

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