Premier League
vs
Liverpool to Win (1-2)
Liverpool starts the Andoni Iraola era away at Newcastle, and we’re going with a narrow 1-2 win for the visitors at St James’ Park.
Both clubs walk into the new season carrying the scars of a busy summer. Iraola has replaced Arne Slot at Anfield after Liverpool limped to fifth place, and Newcastle are rebuilding their attack around Nick Woltemade and Anthony Gordon having watched Alexander Isak leave for, of all clubs, the one standing in the other dugout on Sunday.
It’s a top-half fixture to open the campaign: Liverpool finished fifth on 60 points last season, Newcastle eighth on 53, and both are back in the Champions League. If you have searched this one as a Liverpool vs Newcastle prediction, the visitors are the ones our call favours.
And here’s an obvious hook – Isak returns to St James’ Park in a Liverpool shirt barely a year after the transfer saga that hung over this exact fixture in 2025, which should make for quite the reception.
👉 For more across the season, see our Premier League predictions hub.
Who Will Win Newcastle United vs Liverpool
Liverpool is our pick, and we’ve settled on a 1-2 scoreline. There’s no 2026/27 form to read yet, so the case leans on how last season ended and who’s fit right now, and both point the same way.
Liverpool’s attack is simply deeper: even with Hugo Ekitike injured, Iraola can throw on Cody Gakpo, Dominik Szoboszlai, Florian Wirtz and, yes, Isak, against a Newcastle back line sweating on Fabian Schar and Valentino Livramento.
Neither defence covered itself in glory late last term either, Newcastle beaten 1-2 at home by Bournemouth on the final day, Liverpool shipping four at Villa, which is why goals at both ends look likely.
The two markets the numbers support are both teams to score and over 2.5, with Liverpool favoured on the result. The home crowd may give Newcastle a proper boost, but that forward line is a level above.
Top 3 Betting Tips for Newcastle United vs Liverpool
| Pick | Market | Odds |
|---|---|---|
|
Pick 1 |
Liverpool to win |
11/13 |
|
Pick 2 |
Both teams to score, Yes |
6/13 |
|
Pick 3 |
Over 2.5 goals |
5/11 |
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Liverpool to Win at 11/13
The last time these two met, Liverpool won 4-1 at Anfield in January and finished the season three places and seven points above Newcastle.
The gap in attacking talent has only widened since, because Isak has crossed to the winning side, joining a front line that already had Gakpo, Szoboszlai and Wirtz in it.
Newcastle are awkward opponents at home and won’t roll over, but with Schar and Livramento in doubt and Joelinton out, Liverpool is the sound side to back.
Both Teams to Score Yes at 6/13
Watch how last season ended for both and this one almost picks itself. Newcastle shipped two to Bournemouth, Liverpool leaked four at Villa, and neither has bedded in a new back line over pre-season.
Newcastle carries a real threat at home through Woltemade, eight goals last term, and Gordon, and you don’t need telling what Liverpool’s forwards can do. Two teams that want to attack, two defences still finding their feet, both teams to score is where the value sits.
Over 2.5 Goals at 5/11
Recent history backs a high line here. Four of the last five Newcastle against Liverpool games produced three goals or more, including a wild 3-3 in December 2024 and that 4-1 last January.
Throw in two leaky pre-season defences and the loose, end-to-end feel opening weekend often has, and the goals should come again. Over 2.5 ties the whole argument together.
Newcastle United vs Liverpool Odds Comparison
| Bookmaker | Newcastle United | Draw | Liverpool |
|---|---|---|---|
|
|
14/5 |
3/1 |
1/1 |
|
|
12/5 |
11/4 |
17/20 |
|
|
5/2 |
14/5 |
11/13 |
Liverpool are favourites right across the market at around 1/1, with Newcastle out near 14/5 and the draw close to 3/1, which lines up neatly with the models giving Liverpool a shade over a 50 per cent shot.
The question worth chewing on is whether Newcastle at 14/5 is generous for a strong home side facing a team still learning a new manager’s ideas. Shop the Liverpool and Newcastle prices around before you back either, because the biggest number changes your returns more than you’d think.
For learning how to read these prices, check out our reading odds guide, while comparing bookmakers is the best way to understand and utilize line shopping.
Newcastle United vs Liverpool Form Guide and Stats
| Metric (2025/26 season) | Newcastle United | Liverpool |
|---|---|---|
|
Final league position |
8th |
5th |
|
Points |
53 |
60 |
|
Last 5 of last season (W-D-L) |
W-D-W-L-L (2-1-2) |
L-D-L-W-W (2-1-2) |
|
Goals for (season) |
58 |
63 |
|
Goals against (season) |
46 |
53 |
Remember, none of this is 2026/27 form, it’s where they left off. Liverpool finished three places and seven points above Newcastle and scored more freely, but both leaked, and 53 against is a lot for a side that finished fifth. The bit that matters for Sunday: both turned up in August with their attacks intact and real questions still hanging over their defences.
Curious how fit these squads actually are coming out of pre-season? Our football fitness testing and recovery research is a useful lens for judging which sides carry their conditioning into a Matchday 1 under new managers and new systems, exactly the kind of edge that isn’t in the odds.
Newcastle United Recent Form and Results
- Newcastle 3-1 West Ham, Premier League, 17 May 2026 (W)
- Nottingham Forest 1-1 Newcastle, Premier League, 10 May 2026 (D)
- Newcastle 3-1 Brighton, Premier League, 2 May 2026 (W)
- Arsenal 1-0 Newcastle, Premier League, 25 April 2026 (L)
- Newcastle 1-2 Bournemouth, Premier League, 18 April 2026 (L)
That’s Newcastle’s final five of last season, not current form, so read it with a pinch of salt. At home they were good value, three goals apiece in the West Ham and Brighton wins at St James’ Park, but that closing 1-2 loss to Bournemouth on their own turf is the nagging worry against a sharp visiting attack.
My read: the home threat is genuine, the back line is the soft spot, and pre-season did little to change either. New season numbers will replace all this after the weekend, but for now it points squarely to an open game.
Liverpool Recent Form and Results
- Aston Villa 4-2 Liverpool, Premier League, 15 May 2026 (L)
- Liverpool 1-1 Chelsea, Premier League, 9 May 2026 (D)
- Manchester United 3-2 Liverpool, Premier League, 3 May 2026 (L)
- Liverpool 3-1 Crystal Palace, Premier League, 25 April 2026 (W)
- Everton 1-2 Liverpool, Premier League, 19 April 2026 (W)
Liverpool limped over the line last season, two defeats in their last three and four conceded at Villa, form that cost Slot his job and opened the door for Iraola. On the road they blew hot and cold, a derby win at Everton next to that loss at United.
Big caveat, though: this was a different manager, and Iraola’s Liverpool might not resemble it at all. What carries over is the personnel up front, now with Isak added, and that’s the whole reason the visitors are favourites despite a limp finish.
Newcastle United vs Liverpool Head to Head Record
- 31 Jan 2026, Premier League, Liverpool 4-1 Newcastle
- 25 Aug 2025, Premier League, Newcastle 2-3 Liverpool
- 16 Mar 2025, EFL Cup final, Liverpool 1-2 Newcastle
- 26 Feb 2025, Premier League, Liverpool 2-0 Newcastle
- 4 Dec 2024, Premier League, Newcastle 3-3 Liverpool
Liverpool have owned the league meetings, winning four of the last five, but Newcastle’s single win was the one that mattered most, the 2025 EFL Cup final that finally ended a 70-year wait for a trophy. If there’s a pattern to bet, it’s goals: four of these five sailed past 2.5.
Newcastle United vs Liverpool Match Preview
Newcastle badly want a fast start to a season that’s been talked up, and getting it against the club that pinched their talisman, in front of a full St James’ Park, would make the point emphatically.
Expect them to press Liverpool’s reshuffled midfield and get Woltemade and Gordon running at a back line that isn’t settled. Liverpool, in Iraola’s first competitive match, want an early sign the new ideas travel, and they’ve got enough individual quality to take something here even a notch below their best.
How does it play out? Probably Newcastle fast out of the blocks with the crowd roaring, Liverpool riding it and hitting back through Isak and Wirtz. It likely turns on one question: can Newcastle’s midfield handle Wirtz and Szoboszlai between the lines without cutting Woltemade adrift up top?
When these sides met in January, Liverpool answered exactly that question and won comfortably. Whether you frame it as a Liverpool vs Newcastle prediction or search the Newcastle v Liverpool line, the reading is the same: goals at both ends with the visitors edging it. If you’re deciding where to place these bets, see our football betting sites, and if you’re new to it, start with our first bet guide.
Where to Watch Newcastle United vs Liverpool Live Stream and TV Channel
| Country | Broadcaster |
|---|---|
|
UK |
Sky Sports |
-
Kick-off: Sunday 23 August 2026, 16:30 BST. Venue: St James’ Park, Newcastle upon Tyne.
Newcastle United vs Liverpool Predicted Lineups
Newcastle are nursing Schar and Livramento through fitness concerns with Joelinton out, while Iraola has to name a first competitive XI without the injured Ekitike and Gomez. The predicted line-ups below reflect the latest team news.
Newcastle United Predicted XI
| Position | Player |
|---|---|
|
Goalkeeper (GK) |
Pope |
|
Defenders |
Trippier, Thiaw, Botman, Hall |
|
Midfielders |
Tonali, Bruno Guimaraes, Miley |
|
Forwards |
Gordon, Woltemade, Wissa |
|
Formation |
4-3-3 |
|
Unavailable |
Joelinton (injury), Livramento (doubt), Schar (doubt) |
|
Manager |
Eddie Howe |
Newcastle runs pretty much everything through Bruno Guimaraes – nine goals and forty-five chances created last season, with Woltemade the physical target and Gordon the man to hit in behind.
If Schar doesn’t make it, that reshuffled centre-back pairing is precisely where Liverpool will go hunting.
Liverpool Predicted XI
| Position | Player |
|---|---|
|
Goalkeeper (GK) |
Alisson |
|
Defenders |
Frimpong, Konate, Van Dijk, Kerkez |
|
Midfielders |
Gravenberch, Szoboszlai |
|
Forwards |
Wirtz, Gakpo, Isak |
|
Formation |
4-2-3-1 |
|
Unavailable |
Ekitike (injury), Gomez (injury), Leoni (injury) |
|
Manager |
Andoni Iraola |
Iraola’s likely 4-2-3-1 is built around Isak leading the line against the club he just left, the subplot writing itself, with Wirtz behind him and Gravenberch and Szoboszlai screening. With Salah gone and Ekitike injured, the rest of the front line is one of Iraola’s bigger opening-day calls, and Mac Allister and Jones are late fitness tests too.
Team News, Injuries and Suspensions
- Newcastle United: Joelinton (injury) out; Valentino Livramento and Fabian Schar carrying fitness doubts and being managed.
- Liverpool: Hugo Ekitike, Joe Gomez and Giovanni Leoni all out injured; Alexis Mac Allister and Curtis Jones rated doubtful and facing late tests.
As this is the opening weekend, there are no accumulated yellow-card totals in play and no five-booking suspension risk yet, and no midweek European or cup fixtures immediately either side of it.
The relevant late variable is the fitness of the doubtful players after pre-season and any international hangover, so make sure to confirm final availability from the official channels on matchday.
Key Battles in Newcastle United vs Liverpool
Three duels look like they’ll decide it: Newcastle’s midfield engine against Liverpool’s creators, Isak against the defence he used to play in front of, and the small matter of whether a brand-new Liverpool can boss a game on the road. The referee will be confirmed in the matchday appointments.
Bruno Guimaraes vs Dominik Szoboszlai in Midfield
This is where the game’s control probably lives. Bruno Guimaraes drove Newcastle last season, with nine goals and forty-five chances created, and if he can pin Szoboszlai back and stop Liverpool settling, Newcastle’s front three get fed. Flip it, and if Szoboszlai and Gravenberch start winning the second balls, Liverpool will run the show and Newcastle end up chasing.
Alexander Isak vs the Newcastle Defence
Isak walks back into St James’ Park in a Liverpool shirt a year after the saga that lit up this fixture in 2025, and you can imagine the welcome. Against a Newcastle back line that may be without Schar, his movement between the centre-backs is Liverpool’s likeliest way through, and the emotion of the day only sharpens the goalscorer markets.
Can Iraola's New System Travel on Opening Day
The real unknown is Liverpool themselves. Iraola’s first competitive XI has had one pre-season to soak up his high-tempo pressing, and away openers against a fired-up home crowd are exactly where new systems wobble. Hold the structure and quality wins out; lose it, and Newcastle’s intensity has something to feed on.
Where to Bet on Newcastle United vs Liverpool
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Newcastle United vs Liverpool Score Prediction
-
Final prediction: Newcastle United 1-2 Liverpool. Confidence: narrow call. Best bet: both teams to score at 6/13.
With no new-season form to lean on, I’m trusting squad quality and the way this fixture usually goes. Liverpool’s attack, Isak included against his old club, looks a level above a Newcastle defence carrying doubts, so I’m with the visitors on the result.
But Newcastle score at home and Liverpool’s back line hasn’t convinced me yet, so I fully expect Newcastle to find the net too. That’s why I’m not calling a comfortable away win, it’s a tight, open one.
The strongest play on the evidence is Liverpool to win with both teams to score, and over 2.5 is the natural sidekick. On a Matchday 1 full of unknowns, I’ll take 1-2 Liverpool. Whatever you back, do it within your means, and our bankroll management guide is worth two minutes first.
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Newcastle United vs Liverpool FAQ
Who is most likely to win, Newcastle United or Liverpool?
Liverpool. Their attack, strengthened by Isak, looks a level above a Newcastle side sweating on defensive fitness, though a packed St James’ Park keeps the hosts firmly in it. We’re calling a narrow 1-2 Liverpool win.
Who is better, Newcastle United or Liverpool?
On last season’s finish, Liverpool just shaded it, fifth on 60 points to Newcastle’s eighth on 53, and both are in the Champions League. Liverpool have more attacking depth; Newcastle are a real handful at home. With new managers at both clubs, though, there’s more guesswork than usual this year.
What are the chances Newcastle United will win?
Better than you might think at home, where their intensity and the St James’ Park noise lift them, but the odds and the form still make them second favourites. Independent models put their win chance somewhere in the 27 to 43 per cent range. Check the live price before you bet.
What is the score prediction for Newcastle United vs Liverpool?
Our score prediction is Newcastle United 1-2 Liverpool. We expect goals at both ends given two unsettled defences and strong attacks, which is why both teams to score and over 2.5 goals are our supporting picks alongside a Liverpool win.
What are the best Newcastle United vs Liverpool odds?
The best available decimal prices are shown in our UK odds table and toplist. Compare the Liverpool win, the draw and the Newcastle win across bookmakers before betting, and use line shopping to take the biggest number on your chosen selection.
When is Newcastle United vs Liverpool being played?
Sunday 23 August 2026, kick-off 16:30 BST, at St James’ Park. It is the opening weekend of the 2026/27 Premier League season.
What channel is Newcastle United vs Liverpool on?
In the UK the match is live on Sky Sports as part of Super Sunday. Check your Sky Sports listing on the day for the exact channel and any Main Event simulcast.
Where can I bet on Newcastle United vs Liverpool?
At the UKGC-licensed bookmakers in our toplist, which shows the operators and offers available in the UK. Always check that a bookmaker is licensed by the Gambling Commission and bet within your means.