Tour de France Stage 20 - Nantua to Pontarlier
Quick Answer
Stage 20 from Nantua to Pontarlier is a 184.2km hilly stage through the Jura mountains with 2,916m of climbing. As the penultimate stage, it offers the final opportunity for breakaway specialists before Paris, with a 90% chance of a breakaway victory.
- Distance: 184.2 kilometers with 4 categorized climbs
- Power Requirements: 5.8-6.2 W/kg needed for successful breakaway riders
- Key Moment: Col de la Croix de la Serra at km 24.7 will determine breakaway composition
- Top Contenders: Wout van Aert (25%), Magnus Cort (18%), Neilson Powless (15%)
Stage 20 Breakaway Alert!
This is THE stage for breakaway specialists. Final chance before Paris.
Stage 20 At A Glance
Difficulty: 3/5 | Breakaway Chance: 90% | GC Impact: Low-Medium
Key Moment: Col de la Croix de la Serra (km 24.7) | Predicted Winner Type: Breakaway specialist with 5.8+ W/kg
Start Time: 12:05 CEST | Finish Town: Pontarlier - Capital of Absinthe! | Expected Finish: 16:20 CEST
Stage 20 Quick Facts
Date: Saturday, July 26, 2025 | Distance: 184.2 km | Type: Hilly Stage | Start: 12:05 CEST
Stage 20 from Nantua to Pontarlier is the penultimate stage featuring 2,916m of climbing through the Jura mountains. With the GC likely decided, this offers the final opportunity for breakaway specialists to claim glory. The finish in Pontarlier, the "capital of absinthe," adds historic flavor to this tactical battle!
Stage 20 Elevation Profile
Source: Amaury Sport Organisation (ASO)
Hilly Stage Characteristics
Elevation Gain: 2,916m
Hardest Climb: Col de la Croix de la Serra
Breakaway Probability: 90%
Terrain Type: Rolling Jura
Breakaway Power Requirements
- Sustained Power: 300-350W base power for breakaway riders
- Climbing Power: 5.5-6.5 W/kg on main ascents
- Attack Power: 7-8 W/kg for 30-60 seconds
- Rolling Terrain: Variable power 250-400W depending on gradients
- Energy Systems: 70% aerobic, 30% anaerobic due to variable intensity
Test your climbing readiness with our power profiling test and climbing calculator.
Stage 20 Route Map
Source: Amaury Sport Organisation (ASO)
Route Highlights
- Start: Nantua at 12:05 CEST - Between Lyon and Geneva
- First Climb: Col de la Croix de la Serra (1,049m summit)
- Key Town: Saint-Claude - Watch manufacturing center
- Swiss Border: Route parallels Swiss frontier
- Jura Mountains: Lower but punchy terrain
- Finish: Pontarlier - Absinthe capital at 837m altitude
Breakaway Route Analysis
- km 0-50: Early climb sorts breakaway composition
- km 50-100: Technical roads through Jura valleys
- km 100-150: Constant ups and downs, no recovery
- Final 30km: Tactical phase, late attacks possible
Jura Mountains Character
Terrain Type: Rolling limestone mountains
Road Quality: Excellent, wide main roads
Scenic Highlights: Lakes, forests, watchmaking villages
Weather Risk: Possible rain from west
Border Proximity: Switzerland just kilometers away
Stage 20 Time Schedule
| Time (CEST) | Event | Location |
|---|---|---|
| 10:05 | Team Buses Arrive | Nantua |
| 11:05 | Rider Sign-in | Start Village |
| 12:05 | STAGE START | Nantua |
| 12:35 | Col de la Croix de la Serra Summit | km 24.7 |
| 13:30 | Breakaway Established | ~60km |
| 14:00 | Côte de Valfin | km 75 |
| 15:50 | TV Coverage Begins | Final 30km |
| 16:20 | ESTIMATED FINISH | Pontarlier |
Highlights: Available 1 hour after stage finish
Live Timing: Tour de France app and website
Breakaway Timeline Prediction
- 12:05: Race start - immediate attacks on opening climb
- 12:45: Breakaway forms on Col de la Croix de la Serra (10-15 riders)
- 14:00: Gap stabilizes at 4-6 minutes
- 15:00: Maximum gap reached (8-10 minutes) as peloton relaxes
- 15:45: Attacks from breakaway begin
- 16:20: Solo winner or small group sprint in Pontarlier
Stage 20 Climbs & Hills
Understanding Climb Classifications
Stage 20 features 4 categorized climbs through the Jura mountains:
Beyond category
8%+ for 10km+
Difficult
6-8% for 8-15km
Moderate
4-6% for 5-10km
Hills
3-5% for 2-8km
Small hills
2-4% for 1-5km
KOM Points Available: ~18 points total - crucial for polka dot jersey battle!
Col de la Croix de la Serra - Category 3
Category 3Strategic Position: km 24.7 - Breakaway selection point
Côte de Valfin - Category 3
Category 3Position: km 75 | Length: 5.7 km | Gradient: 4.2%
Second major test - often where cooperation in breakaway starts to break down.
Côte de Thésy - Category 4
Category 4Position: ~km 130 | Character: Short punchy climb
Late in stage - perfect launch pad for solo attacks.
Côte de Longeville - Category 4
Category 4Position: Final 50km | Impact: Last chance for selection
Final categorized climb before descent to Pontarlier.
Can You Handle Stage 20?
Professional riders need 5.5-6.5 W/kg for these climbs. Calculate your power-to-weight ratio with our cycling power calculator.
Climb Challenge: If you can sustain 5.0+ W/kg, you could hang with the breakaway on these Jura climbs!
Stage 20 Winner Predictions
Stage Winner Prediction Model
Based on GC situation, rider form, and breakaway dynamics:
Top Contenders Analysis
Wout van Aert (Visma-Lease a Bike) - 25%
- Strengths: Punchy climber + sprint from small group
- Stage Hunting: Likely missed opportunities earlier
- Power Profile: 6.0+ W/kg on short climbs
- Tactical Ability: Knows when to attack
- Motivation: Last chance for stage win
- Why He Wins: Complete rider for this terrain
Magnus Cort (EF Education-EasyPost) - 18%
- Breakaway King: Multiple Tour stage wins
- Climbing Ability: 5.8-6.2 W/kg sustained
- Tactical Nous: Reads races perfectly
- Sprint Speed: Fast from small groups
- Experience: Knows how to win from breaks
- Why He Wins: Breakaway specialist supreme
Neilson Powless (EF Education-EasyPost) - 15%
- Climbing Style: Perfect for Jura terrain
- Polka Dot Chase: KOM points motivation
- Recent Form: Strong in mountains
- Attack Timing: Explosive accelerations
- Why He Wins: Fresh + KOM ambitions
Dark Horses - 42% Combined
- Guillaume Martin (12%): French hope, loves breakaways
- David Gaudu (10%): If no GC pressure, stage hunting
- GC Rider Attack (8%): If race still close!
- Matej Mohorič: Descending skills + power
- Stefan Küng: Time trial power on rolling terrain
Breakaway Dynamics Prediction
Initial Break
15-20 riders
Forms on Col
Big teams represented
4-5min by valley
Mid-Stage
8-10min gap
Peloton cruising
10-12 survivors
Cooperation good
Final Hour
Attacks begin
3-5 strongest
Cat & mouse
Solo or sprint?
GC Factor
If close: controlled
If decided: freedom
Watch for moves
8% GC attack chance
Power Analysis Predictions
| Scenario | Winner Type | Power Required | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Solo from 20km | Strong climber | 6.0-6.5 W/kg | 35% |
| Small group sprint | Punchy sprinter | 5.8+ W/kg + kick | 45% |
| Late GC attack | GC contender | 6.5-7.0 W/kg | 8% |
| Large group | Pure sprinter | 5.5 W/kg | 12% |
Stage 20 - The Final Stakes
Why Stage 20 Matters
Last Chance Saloon: Final opportunity before ceremonial Paris stage
- Stage Hunters: Top riders without wins desperate for success
- Polka Dot Jersey: Could be decided with 18+ KOM points available
- Team Pride: Squads without wins need results
- GC Shake-up: 8% chance of late drama if race close
King of the Mountains Battle
Current Standings: Likely very close with one stage remaining
Points Available: ~18 points across 4 climbs
Key Riders: Powless, Ciccone, breakaway specialists
Strategy: Must be in early break to contest all climbs
Welcome to Pontarlier - Capital of Absinthe!
Historic Finish: Erik Dekker won here in 2001
Altitude: 837m - France's second-highest town
Famous For: Absinthe production and "Green Fairy" legend
Distillery Tours: Winners celebrate with local specialty!
Tour de France Hill Climbing Specialists
Understanding who excels on hilly stages helps predict Stage 20's outcome:
Punchy Climbers
- Wout van Aert: 6.0+ W/kg + sprint
- Mathieu van der Poel: Explosive power
- Julian Alaphilippe: Short climb master
Breakaway Artists
- Magnus Cort: Stage hunting expert
- Matej Mohorič: Tactical genius
- Stefan Bissegger: Power + tactics
Stage 20 Favorites
- Van Aert: Complete package
- Cort Nielsen: Experience
- Powless: KOM ambition
Stage 20 Prediction: Expect a 10-15 rider breakaway with the winner having 5.8-6.2 W/kg climbing power plus tactical awareness.
Fantasy Cycling Tips
- Captain Pick: Wout van Aert or Magnus Cort
- Value Picks: Powless (KOM hunter), Martin (French hope)
- Avoid: Pure sprinters and tired GC domestiques
- Dark Horse: Matej Mohorič for late attack
- GC Hedge: Include one top-10 rider in case of attacks
Hilly Stage Sports Science
Physiological Profile for Hilly Stages
Sports science researchers indicate that successful breakaway riders on hilly stages like Stage 20 require specific physiological adaptations that differ from pure climbers or sprinters.
- VO2 Max: 70-80 ml/kg/min for successful breakaway riders
- Body Weight: 65-72kg optimal for punchy climbing
- Muscle Fiber: Balanced Type I and Type II for varied demands
- Lactate Tolerance: High buffering capacity for repeated efforts
- Anaerobic Power: 1000W+ for short accelerations
- Recovery Ability: Clear lactate between efforts
Train Like the Pros
To excel on hilly stages like Stage 20, focus on these key training elements:
- Interval Training: 6x5min at 5.5-6.0 W/kg with 3min recovery
- Punchy Climbs: 8x90sec all-out efforts simulating breakaway attacks
- Endurance Base: 4-6 hour rides at moderate intensity (Zone 2)
- Breakaway Simulation: 3-4 hour rides with variable intensity
- Sprint Work: 200m sprints after 3-hour rides
Test your progress with our FTP test and VO2 max assessment.
Penultimate Stage Nutrition
Variable Intensity Fueling
According to sports science expert Robert Wood, who has analyzed sports performance data for over 25 years, nutrition strategies for variable intensity stages differ significantly from steady-state mountain stages.
- Carbohydrate Intake: 70-90g per hour (higher for breakaway)
- Fluid Intake: 700-900ml per hour
- Electrolyte Focus: Sodium crucial after 19 stages
- Quick Energy: Gels before each climb
- Real Food: Last chance before Paris
Third Week Considerations
- Appetite Loss: Common by stage 20
- GI Tolerance: Stick to familiar foods
- Recovery Priority: Prepare for Paris
- Celebration Risk: Save champagne for Paris!
Learn about endurance nutrition and recovery strategies.
Training for Hilly Classics
Stage 20 Specific Training
- Terrain Simulation: Find rolling 3-5km climbs
- Power Variability: Practice 250-400W surges
- Group Dynamics: Train in echelons
- Late Race Efforts: Hard efforts after 4 hours
- Sprint Fatigue: Sprint after climbing work
Key Workout: Jura Simulation
- Warm-up: 45min progressive
- Main Set: 4 climbs varying length
- Climb 1: 12min @ 85% FTP
- Climb 2: 6min @ 90% FTP
- Climb 3: 3min @ 95% FTP
- Climb 4: 8min @ 85-95% FTP
- Recovery: 10min between
- Cool-down: 30min easy
- Total: 3.5-4 hours
Stage 20 Verdict: The Breakaway's Last Stand
Why Stage 20 is Special
The penultimate stage represents everything beautiful about professional cycling's tactical chess game. After 19 grueling stages, with Paris just one day away, Stage 20 offers a final battleground for glory. The Jura mountains provide the perfect terrain - challenging enough to create selection, but not so brutal that only pure climbers can compete.
The finish in Pontarlier, the "capital of absinthe," adds romantic flair. Erik Dekker's victory here in 2001 came in one of the most remarkable breakaways in Tour history - 14 riders gaining 35 minutes! While modern racing prevents such time gaps, the spirit of adventure remains.
Keys to Victory
- 5.8-6.2 W/kg - Sweet spot for this terrain
- 184.2km - Long enough for proper selection
- 2,916m climbing - Significant but manageable
- 90% breakaway chance - GC teams will rest
- Final opportunity - Desperation breeds attacks
- Tactical chess - When to attack crucial
The Bottom Line
Stage 20 epitomizes why we love cycling. It's not about raw power or pure climbing ability - it's about reading the race, timing attacks perfectly, and having the courage to seize the moment. Whether it's van Aert finally claiming his stage, Cort adding to his palmares, or an unexpected winner emerging, Pontarlier will crown a worthy champion. After 3,000km of racing, these warriors deserve their moment. Don't miss cycling at its tactical best!
Compare Stage Types
See how Stage 20 compares to other 2025 Tour stages:
- Stage 6: Vire Normandie - Norman hills, steep finish
- Stage 7: Mûr-de-Bretagne - Classic Breton climb
- Stage 15: Carcassonne - Transition day tactics
- Stage 21: Paris - Final sprint celebration
Hilly Stage Legacy: Where breakaway dreams come true!
What Makes Stage 20 Unique
- Penultimate Position: Last real racing day
- Jura Mountains: Unique terrain character
- Breakaway Paradise: 90% success rate
- Absinthe Finish: Historic Pontarlier
- Tactical Freedom: GC usually decided
- Desperation Factor: Last chance for glory
Frequently Asked Questions
What type of stage is Tour de France Stage 20?
Stage 20 is a hilly stage covering 184.2km from Nantua to Pontarlier through the Jura mountains with 2,916m of climbing. It features 4 categorized climbs (two Category 3 and two Category 4) and is highly likely to be won from a breakaway, with approximately 90% probability based on historical data and the GC situation by this point in the race.
Who are the favorites to win Stage 20?
Top favorites include Wout van Aert (25% chance) who combines climbing ability with sprint speed, Magnus Cort (18%) as a proven breakaway specialist, and Neilson Powless (15%) who will be motivated by King of the Mountains points. Breakaway specialists with 5.8-6.2 W/kg climbing power and tactical awareness have the best chance on this terrain.
What time does Stage 20 start and finish?
Stage 20 starts at 12:05 CEST from Nantua on Saturday, July 26, 2025, with an estimated finish time of 16:20 CEST in Pontarlier. Live television coverage begins at 15:50 CEST for the final 30 kilometers, while full stage highlights become available approximately one hour after the stage concludes.
What power output is needed to compete on Stage 20?
Successful breakaway riders need to sustain 5.8-6.2 W/kg on the main climbs, with base power of 300-350W for extended periods and attack power of 7-8 W/kg for 30-60 seconds. The variable terrain requires excellent recovery ability to clear lactate between efforts, making this stage demanding on both aerobic and anaerobic energy systems.
What makes Pontarlier special as a finish town?
Pontarlier is known as the capital of absinthe, the legendary "Green Fairy" spirit, sitting at 837m altitude making it France's second-highest town. It last hosted a Tour de France stage finish in 2001 when Erik Dekker won from a legendary 14-rider breakaway that gained 35 minutes. The town offers distillery tours where winners traditionally celebrate with the local specialty.
Why is Stage 20 important for the King of the Mountains competition?
Stage 20 offers approximately 18 King of the Mountains points across its 4 categorized climbs, which could be decisive for the polka dot jersey competition. With only the ceremonial Paris stage remaining after this, riders hunting KOM points must be in the early breakaway to contest all four climbs, making this their final realistic opportunity to gain points.
References
- Amaury Sport Organisation. (2025). "Tour de France 2025 Official Route and Stage Details." ASO Media. Retrieved from https://www.letour.fr
- Coyle, E.F. (2005). "Improved muscular efficiency displayed as Tour de France champion matures." Journal of Applied Physiology. 98(6), 2191-2196.
- Lucia, A., Hoyos, J., & Chicharro, J.L. (2001). "Physiology of professional road cycling." Sports Medicine. 31(5), 325-337.
- Padilla, S., Mujika, I., Cuesta, G., & Goiriena, J.J. (1999). "Level ground and uphill cycling ability in professional road cycling." Medicine & Science in Sports & Exercise. 31(6), 878-885.
- Sanders, D., & Heijboer, M. (2019). "Physical demands and power profile of different stage types within a cycling grand tour." European Journal of Sport Science. 19(6), 736-744.
- Jeukendrup, A.E. (2011). "Nutrition for endurance sports: Marathon, triathlon, and road cycling." Journal of Sports Sciences. 29(S1), S91-S99.
- Atkinson, G., Davison, R., Jeukendrup, A., & Passfield, L. (2003). "Science and cycling: current knowledge and future directions for research." Journal of Sports Sciences. 21(9), 767-787.
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