Who will top the 2022 Winter Olympic Games medal tally? In the lead up to the Games there was a lot of conjecture about how many medals each country will win, but here we show a few examples of little more scientific and methodical predictions.
There are two main categories of prediction methods: one is predictions based on competition results leading up to the Olympics, such as those by Gracenote shown below, the other is from scholars using economics and a range of factors to base their predictions (or a mixture of both of these). Only time will tell how correct they are and which method may be better.
We were only able to find a few predictions, possibly due to the ongoing upheaval of world sports and limitations on travel and competitions due to the Coronavirus pandemic, it is obviously a challenge to make meaningful predictions.
Compare the predictions below to the actual medal table from the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics.
Prediction of TOTAL GOLD MEDALS to be won in 2022
Norway was predicted to top the medal table, as they did in 2018. Everyone agreed on that, and they were right. They still won despite only winning 16 gold medals compared to the predicted 21. Norway has now finished on top of the medal tally for the last three Winter Olympics.
Germany finished second on the actual gold medal count (as predicted by two of the three), followed by China, though it was close for third with USA, Sweden and The Netherlands only one medal behind China. The biggest surprise was the success of the home country China, they finished well above what was predicted.
|rank||Gracenote (2 Feb 2022)||Tumblr (31 Jan 2022)||Betting Odds|
|1||Norway (21)||Norway (21)||Norway|
|2||Germany (11)||ROC (Russia) (10)||Germany|
|3||ROC (Russia) (10)||Germany (10)||Canada|
|4||Netherlands (8)||USA (7)||USA|
|5||USA (7)||Canada (7)||Russia|
|6||Sweden (7)||France (7)||China|
|7||Canada (6)||Sweden (7)||Netherlands|
|8||Switzerland (6)||Switzerland (6)||Sweden|
|9||China (6)||Netherlands (6)||Austria|
|10||France (4)||Austria (5)||France|
Prediction of TOTAL MEDALS to be won in 2022
Norway won the most medals in Beijing 2022, as predicted they would. ROC was second, as predicted by two of the three models (though ROC was only ninth when ranked by gold medals). Germany, Canada and USA finished 3rd to 5th on the actual table.
All three predictions had the top five correct, with the prediction by the Bleacher Report getting them in the right order. However, there was no method or other source listed for that prediction, so we don't know how they were able to do it.
|rank||Gracenote (2 Feb 2022)||Tumblr (31 Jan 2022)||Bleacher (3 Feb 2022)|
|1||Norway (44)||Norway (43)||Norway (42)|
|2||Germany (30)||ROC (Russia) (27)||ROC (Russia) (31)|
|3||ROC (Russia) (30)||USA (26)||Germany (30)|
|4||USA (22)||Canada (25)||Canada (23)|
|5||Canada (22)||Germany (24)||USA (22)|
|6||Switzerland (21)||France (21)||
|7||Netherlands (20)||Sweden (20)|
|8||Sweden (19)||Switzerland (20)|
|9||France (19)||Netherlands (19)|
|10||Japan (19)||Austria (19)|
About The Predictors
- Gracenote Sports' Virtual Medal Table (VMT) — This medal table prediction was created by Gracenote Sports. This predictor uses an algorithm to rank athletes and teams in each Olympic event based on recent competition results, and is updated regularly leading up to the Games. The last prediction prior to the games starting is listed.
- Tumblr Guy - there are predictions listed on Tumblr but no indication who created them. The method used is by selecting a winner of each event, based on recent results. Their final prediction from 4 days to go are listed.
- Betting Odds — found online a list of Olympic Games Odds provided by Bovada. As only the betting odds were provided, we just have a predicted finishing order, not actual medal counts.
- Bleacher Report - from (3 Feb '22) - A page on the Bleacher Report website lists the top 5 predictions. No method or other source is listed, so we are not sure how they came about their list. Source here.
- 2022 Winter Olympics Medal Tally
- More Winter Olympics predictions
- Medal Tally from every Winter Olympics.