2020 Predicted Medal Tally

There is still over a year to go before the 2020 Summer Olympic Games in Tokyo, though interest in how each nation may perform is already starting to ramp up. We have found some models that provide a prediction of the final medal tally for the 2020 Tokyo Olympic Games. Here are the top 10 positions from each prediction model that we have found. The method used to predict the winners varies, some are from scholars using economics and a range of factors to base their prediction, while others use recent competition results and possibly a bit of gut feeling. Once the actual results are known, we will assess the accuracy of the prediction equations.

There are two sets of tables, one for predictions of the total gold medals won, the other for predicted total overall medals won. See more details about each of these prediction models here. As it is still a long time to go before the Olympics in Tokyo, there not many predictions yet.

Predicted Gold Medal Tally

No surprise here, USA and China are predicted to top the medal table. Host country Japan are predicted to be very successful, as is usually the case with the host country.

Table of predicted top 10 countries with TOTAL GOLD medals won

rank Olympic medals predictions
(February 12, 2019)
Gracenote (from 6 May 2019)
1 USA (50) USA (47)
2 Russia (32) China (35)
3 China (29) Japan (31)
4 Germany (19) Russia (18)
5 Japan (18) Great Britain (14)
6 Great Britain (16) Netherlands (14)
7 South Korea (14) South Korea (14)
8 Netherlands (11) Germany (13)
9 France (9) Australia (12)
10 Australia (8) France (10)

Predicted Total Medal Tally

No surprise here, USA and China are predicted to top the table.

Table of predicted top 10 countries with TOTAL MEDALS won

rank Olympic medals predictions
(February 12, 2019)
Gracenote (from 6 May 2019)
1 USA (120) USA (123)
2 Russia (77) China (76)
3 China (77) Russia (66)
4 Japan (59) Japan (63)
5 Great Britain (52) Great Britain (46)
6 Germany (44) Australia (44)
7 Italy (40) France (41)
8 Australia (39) Germany (40)
9 France (37) Italy (34)
10 Netherlands (35) Netherlands (32)

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Olympics Extra

The next Olympics will be the 2020 Tokyo Olympic Games, followed by the Winter Olympics 2022 in Beijing. Check out the list of olympic sports, as well as discontinued and demonstration sports.

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