2020 Predicted Medal Tally
There is a little less than a year to go before the 2020 Summer Olympic Games in Tokyo, and interest in how each nation may perform is starting to ramp up. We have found some models that provide a prediction of the final medal tally for the 2020 Tokyo Olympic Games. Here are the top 10 positions from each prediction model that we have found. The method used to predict the winners varies, some are from scholars using economics and a range of factors to base their prediction, while others use recent competition results and possibly a bit of gut feeling. Once the actual results are known, we will assess the accuracy of the prediction equations.
There are two sets of tables, one for predictions of the total gold medals won, the other for predicted total overall medals won. See more details about each of these prediction models here. As it is still a long time to go before the Olympics in Tokyo, there not many predictions yet.
Predicted Gold Medal Tally
No surprise here, USA and China are predicted to top the medal table. Host country Japan are predicted to be very successful, as is usually the case with the host country.
Table of predicted top 10 countries with TOTAL GOLD medals won
rank | Olympic medals predictions (Jan 28, 2020) |
Towards Data Science (28 July 2019) |
Totallympics (12 Dec 2019) |
BEST Sports (June 3, 2019) |
Gracenote (Jan 24, 2020) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | USA (50) | USA (30) | USA (51) | USA (48) | USA (47) |
2 | China (42) | China (25) | China (42) | China (34) | China (43) |
3 | Russia (28) | Russia (19) | Russia (28) | Great Britain (24) | Japan (30) |
4 | Great Britain (20) | Germany (18) | Japan (17) | Japan (22) | Russia (25) |
5 | Japan (18) | Great Britain (14) | Australia (15) | Russia (21) | Australia (17) |
6 | Germany (16) | Australia (13) | Great Britain (15) | Germany (15) | Netherlands (16) |
7 | Australia (14) | Brazil (12) | Netherlands (14) | France (13) | Great Britain (13) |
8 | Netherlands (10) | France (11) | Germany (14) | Italy (13) | New Zealand (12) |
9 | France (10) | Spain (11) | France (13) | Australia (12) | Germany (9) |
10 | Hungary (8) | Canada (10) | Hungary (9) | South Korea (12) | South Korea (9) |
Predicted Total Medal Tally
No surprise here, USA and China are predicted to top the table.
Table of predicted top 10 countries with TOTAL MEDALS won
rank | Olympic medals predictions (Jan 28, 2020) |
Towards Data Science (28 July 2019) |
Totallympics (12 Dec 2019) |
BEST Sports (June 3, 2019) |
Gracenote (Jan 24, 2020) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | USA (109) | USA (82) | USA (102) | USA (134) | USA (117) |
2 | China (92) | China (64) | China (95) | China (90) | China (87) |
3 | Russia (71) | Russia (57) | Russia (75) | Russia (75) | Russia (66) |
4 | Great Britain (53) | Germany (54) | Japan (57) | Japan (52) | Japan (65) |
5 | Japan (52) | Australia (42) | Australia (50) | Great Britain (51) | Australia (44) |
6 | Australia (46) | Great Britain (40) | Great Britain (54) | Germany (47) | Great Britain (42) |
7 | Germany (41) | France (36) | France (44) | Italy (43) | Netherlands (41) |
8 | Italy (38) | Brazil (35) | Germany (40) | France (40) | France (37) |
9 | Netherlands (33) | Spain (31) | Netherlands (37) | Australia (38) | Germany (35) |
10 | France (32) | Canada (31) | Italy (35) | Netherlands (28) | Italy (32) |
References
- Gracenote Sports Virtual Medal Table — This popular Olympic Games medal table prediction can be seen in many media outlets. This predictor uses an algorithm to rank athletes and teams in each Olympic event based on recent competition results (taking into account the result, how recent it is and the level of competition). This data is regularly updated leading up to the Games - see their 2020 prediction changes over time.
- BEST Sports — predictions of sports results generated by experts using proprietary statistical models. These models are applied in their extensive database of sports results, with the aim of predicting future results. From the BESTSports website. Their predictions are updated every month.
- Olympicmedalspredictions - this website (author unknown) makes predictions based on results from major sporting events leading up to the Games. See their 2020 prediction changes over time.
- Towards Data Science - from the article "The Tokyo 2020 Olympic Champions, Predicting the Medal Table of the Summer Games" by Adam C Dick, published 28 July 2019. The features they included for predicting medal counts were athletes, events, athletes per event, summer games, outlier nations, host nation.
- Totallympics - a simple ranking based on the current world champions for each event/sport. There will be changes as time progresses and more world championships are undertaken. See website.
Related Pages
- about Predicted Medal Tables
- 2020 prediction canges over time for Gracenote and Olympicmedalspredictions
- more Medal Tallies from each Olympic year
- See more about the Olympics Games in 2020