Rob Wood

Rob's Sports, Fitness & Science Blog

My Olympic Gold Medal Predictions

July 27th, 2012 · 5 Comments · Olympic Games

Olympic Games MedalsWith the Olympic Games starting now, I feel like it is time for me to make my predictions for the final medal tally. It seems like  everyone else is doing it. I have discussed a few prediction models on this site that use science and results from recent competitions. My prediction is based on something a little less scientific, my gut feeling and reflection, so don’t place too much emphasis on it. It will be interesting to see how my list performs compared to the other predictions, only time and a bit of number crunching will tell.

Here is my final top 10 predictions for gold medals won:

  1. 40 USA
  2. 33 China
  3. 26 Great Britain
  4.  24 Russia
  5. 15 Germany
  6. 11 Japan
  7. 10 Australia
  8. 10 Italy
  9. 9 France
  10. 8 South Korea
UPDATE: Now that the Olympics are over, it is time to score how well my predictions were. I got the first four in order. The only country I did not predict to make the top 10 was Hungary, which finished 9th on the official table with 8 golds, pushing Japan outside the top 10. How accurate were these predictions? Using my analysis method comparing the top five actual to the predicted medals for those countries, I achieved an percentage accuracy score of 85%, only just below the best by Goldman Sachs (87%), out of all the medal predictions for 2012.
my order prediction predicted medals actual position actual golds
1 USA 40 1 46
2 China 33 2 38
3 Great Britain 26 3 29
4 Russia 24 4 24
5 Germany 15 6 11
6 Japan 11 11 7
7 Australia 10 10 7
8 Italy 10 8 8
9 France 9 7 11
10 South Korea 8 5 13

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  • Greg

    what about overall numbers of medals?

  • robjwood

    I have only used the total number of gold medals is what most of the major medal tables use to rank the country order, and what matters most to countries when considering success at the Olympics.

  • gmihaly

    Well, I think Hungary will finish very close to 10 Golds (if not over)… but after one week I don`t think Australia can “reborn”….

  • Tim Jones

    Hey Rob, great predictions with the gold medal tally, you were very close. Now, can you help me with my tatts numbers?

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